Global| Sep 23 2008European PMIs Remain Weak
Summary
Surveys show that both the MFG and services PMI’s slipped in September. But the MFG PMI fell harder. Still, over this relatively short horizon (since January 2006) this is the weakest reading on record for services. For MFG it is the [...]
Surveys show that both the MFG and services PMI’s slipped in September. But the MFG PMI fell harder. Still, over this relatively short horizon (since January 2006) this is the weakest reading on record for services. For MFG it is the weakest reading on this horizon as well.
Taking the MFG reading back to 1997 it stands in the bottom 13% of its range. That is a higher relative position to be sure but still quite weak and not much source of solace.
The PMIs confirm that economic activity in Europe continues to slip. The most recent month’s orders series for EMU (June) showed a rise, but that was from the volatile transportation sector. Excluding transportation, orders were still falling in June. The more topical PMI survey data give a peek into September and we can see that slippage has continued apace right up to date. It is for their relatively greater timeliness that these surveys on MFG and services are so prized.
| FLASH Readings | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markit PMIs for the Euro Area 15 | MFG | Services | ||
| Sep-08 | 45.34 | 48.15 | ||
| Aug-08 | 47.55 | 48.46 | ||
| Jul-08 | 47.38 | 48.32 | ||
| Jun-08 | 49.16 | 49.13 | ||
| Averages | ||||
| 3-Mo | 48.03 | 48.21 | ||
| 6-Mo | 49.58 | 49.41 | ||
| 12-Mo | 51.06 | 51.24 | ||
| 33-Mo Range | ||||
| High | 57.61 | 61.21 | ||
| Low | 45.34 | 48.15 | ||
| % Range | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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