Euro-Consumer Confidence Hits the Skids

Consumer confidence is taking a hit and an ongoing one in EMU. The percentiles tell an interesting story of these unfolding developments. It is no surprise (final column of the table) that the strongest correlation with Consumer Confidence is expected unemployment. Expected unemployment is rising but is only in its 15th percentile. Expected savings is also a very weak percentile reading as is ‘major purchases now’. The later figure is plotted in the chart along with the consumer confidence main index. ‘Major purchases now’ responses seem to lead the overall index -- and this series is very weak.

The strongest range readings are for price trends (past 12 months and future 12 months) and for the ‘economic situation past 12 months’. In other words the more topical the categories, the weaker the responses.

Across countries Germany’s responses are still quite strong in the top 17 percent of its range. The UK in the 68th percentile is next followed by France in the 60th percentile. Italy and Spain are weak with readings below the 50th percentile.

It should not be a surprise that (apart from the UK) all these countries are in the same currency union and are experiencing the same pains of a strong currency. Germany, a county used to a strong currency, finds its consumers faring best. Italy and Spain, two previously weak currency countries, are having a much more difficult time making the adjustment to the strong euro.