Global| Jul 22 2010EMU Orders Surge in May...Big Surprise
Summary
In May orders in the EMU surges by 3.8% a sharp acceleration from May's rise of 0.6%. With this surge the 3-, 6- and 12-month rates of growth are held high and steady at the extremely high pace of above 23% with the three-month growth [...]
In May orders in the EMU surges by 3.8% a sharp acceleration from May's rise of 0.6%. With this surge the 3-, 6- and 12-month rates of growth are held high and steady at the extremely high pace of above 23% with the three-month growth rate surging to 43%. Both domestic and foreign orders are holding to high rates of growth as well with the foreign orders series being the stronger of the two at nearly twice the pace of domestic orders except over three-months where domestic orders have ramped up their rate of growth sharply to exceed the pace for foreign orders.
Germany and France, two of the larger EMU countries, showed weakness in orders in May. That explains the surprise in the headline. The May orders strength occurred among the smaller Euro-Area nations although orders in Italy did pop in May. Over three-months both Germany and Italy are reporting an orders growth rate close to the EMU overall pace and this is despite a surge in Italy's orders in May and despite a decline in Germany's also in May.
Clearly there is some shifting around of growth in the Euro-Area. But these are far stronger figures than had been expected. The report this month suggests that there may be a revival domestically in some of the smaller EMU nations. That would be good news indeed.
| Selected Euro-Area and UK Industrial Orders | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | May-10 | Apr-10 | May-10 | Apr-10 | May-10 | Apr-10 | |||
| Euro-Area Detail | May 10 |
Apr 10 |
Mar 10 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 12Mo | |
| MFG Orders | 3.8% | 0.6% | 4.9% | 43.7% | 42.1% | 23.5% | 23.5% | 24.6% | 20.5% | |
| MFG Sales | 5.2% | -1.9% | 3.0% | 27.5% | 9.0% | 19.0% | 10.6% | 14.0% | 8.0% | |
| Consumer | 3.5% | -2.4% | 1.9% | 12.2% | -2.7% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | -0.8% | |
| Capital | 5.8% | -3.4% | 3.4% | 24.9% | 1.0% | 15.7% | 2.8% | 10.7% | 5.0% | |
| Intermediate | 2.9% | 0.9% | 6.0% | 46.4% | 35.5% | 15.9% | 14.4% | 17.3% | 13.4% | |
| Memo:MFG | ||||||||||
| E-13 Domestic MFG orders | 2.9% | 0.9% | 6.0% | 46.4% | 35.5% | 15.9% | 14.4% | 17.3% | 13.4% | |
| E-13 Foreign MFG orders | 5.7% | 0.7% | 4.7% | 54.1% | 53.0% | 33.8% | 30.2% | 33.5% | 27.4% | |
| Countries: | May 10 |
Apr 10 |
Mar 10 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 12Mo | |
| Germany (MFG): | -0.2% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 44.5% | 48.6% | 30.3% | 41.4% | 28.0% | 33.1% | |
| France(Ind): | -0.6% | -3.1% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | |
| Italy (Ind): | 3.2% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 43.5% | 26.1% | 25.5% | 25.4% | 22.4% | 20.5% | |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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