Global| Aug 13 2008EMU IP is FLAT
Summary
EMU IP came up flat in June but the declining trends are clear. Capital goods output, consumer goods output and intermediate goods output all are on declining profiles. Among large EU/EMU countries Germany is the main exception that [...]
EMU IP came up flat in June but the declining trends are
clear. Capital goods output, consumer goods output and intermediate
goods output all are on declining profiles. Among large EU/EMU
countries Germany is the main exception that helps to prop up output in
the month. Elsewhere the results were much worse on the month. The
weakness in IP mirrors the weakness in order growth. Nonetheless, in
Germany Bert Ruerup, the head of the council of wise men, is opposed to
any German stimulus plan. Of course Germany is still best performing of
the EMU large economies.
Incoming EMU data continue to show weakness of various sorts.
It fits with a picture of global slowing. UK claims data today showed
the greatest gain in job market claimant activity in 15 years. In Japan
authorities are very worried about export growth. Flat IP in EMU seems
a sure bet to give way to declining IP and that will pose a threat to
US export growth that is still performing so well, as we saw in the US
trade report from yesterday. Everyone is linked and the disease of
weaker growth is still spreading.
| E-zone MFG IP | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | Jun 08 |
May 08 |
Jun 08 |
May 08 |
Jun 08 |
May 08 |
|||
| Euro Area Detail | Jun 08 |
May 08 |
Apr 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q-2 Date |
| MFG | 0.0% | -1.4% | 0.4% | -4.0% | -6.6% | -1.2% | -0.9% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -3.9% |
| Consumer | 0.8% | -2.0% | 0.9% | -1.4% | -7.8% | -1.7% | -3.2% | -1.2% | -2.9% | -3.7% |
| Consumer Durables | -0.1% | -3.2% | 1.9% | -5.9% | -12.2% | -3.5% | -3.8% | -5.1% | -5.1% | -- |
| Consumer Non-Durables | 0.9% | -1.4% | 0.2% | -1.1% | -7.0% | -1.4% | -2.9% | -0.4% | -2.4% | -- |
| Intermediate | -0.2% | -1.5% | 0.3% | -5.1% | -6.6% | -2.0% | -0.5% | -0.9% | -0.5% | -4.0% |
| Capital | -0.4% | -2.0% | 2.1% | -1.4% | -6.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.8% | -1.7% |
| Main E-zone Countries and UK IP in MFG | ||||||||||
| Mo/Mo | Jun 08 |
May 08 |
Jun 08 |
May 08 |
Jun 08 |
May 08 |
||||
| MFG Only | Jun 08 |
May 08 |
Apr 08 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q-2 Date |
| Germany | 0.5% | -1.9% | -0.3% | -6.9% | -9.2% | -2.2% | -0.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | -6.1% |
| France: IP excl Construction | -0.4% | -2.9% | 1.3% | -7.8% | -10.2% | -4.9% | -2.9% | -1.6% | -1.8% | -5.3% |
| Italy | 0.2% | -1.5% | 0.4% | -3.3% | -4.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | -2.0% | -2.6% | -2.5% |
| Spain | -4.9% | -14.8% | 27.5% | 13.9% | -33.7% | -17.5% | -10.0% | -9.6% | -7.7% | 2.2% |
| UK | -0.5% | -0.6% | 0.0% | -4.2% | -4.2% | -1.5% | -1.0% | -1.3% | -0.9% | -2.9% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
