Global| Aug 14 2008EMU GDP in Clear Downtrend and Declining Across the Board
Summary
EMU GDP fell in 2008 Q2the first time since EMU-wide GDP data have been collected. Declines were experienced across the main EMU nations. Yr/Yr EMU growth is still 1.5% Italy’s growth is flat year/year. Germany is still at 1.7% Yr/Yr. [...]
EMU GDP fell in 2008 Q2the first time since EMU-wide GDP data
have been collected. Declines were experienced across the main EMU
nations. Yr/Yr EMU growth is still 1.5% Italy’s growth is flat
year/year. Germany is still at 1.7% Yr/Yr. This was the first
quarter-on-quarter decline in EMU GDP since well before the euro was
launched in 1998. Eurostat has constructed a series for the 15 current
members of the euro zone that goes back to the start of 1995. The
weakest performance on record for that period had been the stagnant
second quarter of 2003. That now has been surpassed.
Q2 was not a good one for the global economy with most of the
major economies showing Q/Q declines in GDP – the US and UK are
exceptions. The Bundesbank put out a statement warning Germans not to
get too pessimistic about growth: "The German economy has got to get
through a rough patch for growth in the coming months. But overall
there's no reason for excessive pessimism based on the development of
the first half of the year," the German central bank said in a
statement. Still the data are clear and the industrial trends still
point lower. EMU inflation was revised to be one tenth of one percent
less in July to 4% Yr/Yr. Still it si double the allowable ceiling for
the ECB.
| E-Zone and main G-10 country GDP Results | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter over quarter-Saar | Year/Year | ||||||
| GDP | Q2-08 | Q1-08 | Q4-07 | Q2-08 | Q1-08 | Q4-07 | Q3-07 |
| EMU-15 | -0.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% |
| France | -1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% |
| Germany | -2.0% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% |
| Italy | -1.1% | 2.0% | -1.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.6% |
| The Netherlands | -0.2% | 1.5% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% |
| UK | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| US | 1.9% | 0.9% | -0.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| Japan | -2.4% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
