Global| Apr 25 2002Employment Cost Index Up Moderately
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The employment cost index rose as expected last quarter. This 1Q report was virtually identical in substance to the 4Q report: higher unemployment rates have constrained growth in wages and benefits. Quarterly gains in compensation [...]
The employment cost index rose as expected last quarter. This 1Q report was virtually identical in substance to the 4Q report: higher unemployment rates have constrained growth in wages and benefits.
Quarterly gains in compensation peaked in early 2000 when benefits rose 1.9% and wages & salaries rose 1.1%. Since then, quarterly gains in benefit costs have been stable in the 1.1-1.4% range and wages have been in the 0.7-1.0% range.
Compensation gains in service industries have accelerated moderately during the period while gains in the goods producing sector have slowed considerably.
| ECI- Private Industry Workers | 1Q'02 | 4Q'01 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compensation | 0.9% | 1.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% |
| Wages & Salaries | 0.9% | 0.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% |
| Benefit Costs | 1.1% | 1.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.5% |
by Tom Moeller April 25, 2002
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell more than expected as fewer people filed for extended benefits. The prior week's level was revised up.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance, which are unaffected by extended benefits, fell after surging the week prior which was revised down slightly.
The four-week moving average of claims rose to 452,500.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 2.9%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/20/02 | 04/13/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 421.0 | 452.0 | 3.7% | 405.8 | 299.8 | 297.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,714 | 34.5% | 3,021 | 2,114 | 2,186 |
by Tom Moeller April 25, 2002
Sales of existing single family homes fell more than expected last month, down 8.3% versus February which was revised up slightly. Sales had set a record in January.
Home sales were down sharply in each of the country’s four regions.
The median price of an existing home rose to $153,000 (6.7% y/y). February figures were revised slightly lower.
The figures reflect closings of past sales.
The average rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose to 7.01% last month from 6.89% in February.
| Existing Home Sales (000, AR) | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Existing Single-Family | 5,400 | 5,890 | -0.7% | 5,291 | 5,159 | 5,193 |
by Tom Moeller April 25, 2002
The Conference Board's National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising fell slightly in March and remained in the low range it has tracked since October.
During the past ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the three-month % change in nonfarm payrolls.
By region, job opportunities improved little across the nation.
The figures are seasonally adjusted.
| Conference Board | Mar'02 | Feb'02 | Mar '01 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nat'l Help Wanted Index | 46 | 47 | 67 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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