Global| Sep 25 2003Czech Consumer Confidence Erodes; Business Confidence Holds Firm
Summary
Similar to the United States, the Czech Republic is presently experiencing GDP growth without appreciable employment gains. Newly reported data on consumer confidence for September show a worsening trend in people's moods that could [...]
Similar to the United States, the Czech Republic is presently experiencing GDP growth without appreciable employment gains. Newly reported data on consumer confidence for September show a worsening trend in people's moods that could well be tied to this manner of economic expansion.
Businesses, however, seem to have a rather different perspective. Their confidence index, while somewhat erratic, is basically trendless. The local Czech stock market has been rising and interest costs are low. The circumstance of jobless growth was accomplished by sizable gains in productivity in the first half of this year. With these favorable business developments, business confidence is at least able to hold at a plateau. However, if consumer confidence continues declining, it remains to be seen how long business sentiment can be sustained.
| Czech Republic: Confidence Measures and Related Factors | Sept 2003 | Aug 2003 | July 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence (% Balance) | -17 | -12 | -15 | -7 | -5 | -12 |
| Business Confidence (% Balance) | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | N.A. |
| Prague Stock Exchange PX 50 (Index, 3/1/95 = 100) | N.A. | 585.3 | 550.8 | 438.0 | 411.0 | 550.6 |
| % Change, Annual Rate | 2Q 2003 | 1Q 2003 | 4Q 2002 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
| GDP | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Employment | -1.9 | -4.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | -0.2 |
| Productivity (Output/Employee) | 4.3 | 8.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 3.9 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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