Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060125b.jpg" width="353">
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago fell sharply in December to 0.08 from 0.59 in November but the three-month moving average of the CFNAI rose to 0.55, the highest level since April 2004.
A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
Recent movements in the index have been exaggerated due to the damaging economic effects of last year&#39;s hurricanes.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories &amp; orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_January2006.pdf">here</a>.
Ill Winds Can&#39;t Blow U.S. Economy Off Course from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta can be found <a href="http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=7C786700-5056-9F06-99C2D0ABAFEBBC55&amp;method=display"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Dec &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
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<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>0.08</td>
<td>0.59</td>
<td>0.72</td>
<td>0.16</td>
<td>0.38</td>
<td>-0.11</td>
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The National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago fell sharply in December to 0.08 from 0.59 in November but the three-month moving average of the CFNAI rose to 0.55, the highest level since April [...]

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Down

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The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence fell 8.4% (-11.8% y/y) to 86.0 after a 6.2% decline in March to 93.9, revised from down 7.2%. A reading of 87.2 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The April figure was 23.8% below its November 2024 high. Weakness in confidence is widespread amongst components in this latest report.

The Expectations Index plunged 18.7% (-20.9% y/y) to 54.4, after falling 10.6% in March, revised from a 12.8% decline. This latest figure was the weakest since October 2011. The Present Situation index fell 0.7% (-5.0% y/y) to 133.5, after declining 2.7% in March and 1.3% in February. The reading was the lowest in seven months.

The percentage of respondents assessing business conditions as “good” rose to 19.2% this month after declining to 18.3% in March. The index hit a high of 22.0% in October. The percentage assessing conditions as “bad” eased to 16.1% after rising to 16.5% in March. The appraisal of labor market conditions dipped m/m in April as 31.7% of respondents thought jobs were plentiful, down from 33.6% in March. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 16.6% of respondents this month, up from 16.1% in March. This measure has risen from 11.0% in January 2024. The labor market differential calculated by Haver Analytics (the percentage of consumers who think jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who believe that jobs are currently hard to get) fell to 15.1% compared to 17.5% in March and remained below a high of 47.1% in March 2022. This series has a 60% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years.

Expectations for business conditions deteriorated in April. A lessened 15.7% of respondents expect conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 20.8% in both February and January, while a higher 34.8% expect them to deteriorate, up from 25.5% in February. On employment, a lessened 13.7% expect the number of jobs to increase over the next six months. The percentage expecting the number of jobs to decline in the next six months rose to 32.1% after surging to 26.6% in February. A lessened 15.0% expect income to increase in six months. That remained down from a high of 20.7% in November and compares to a higher 18.2% who expect income to decrease, up from 11.8% in October.

The expected rate of price inflation over the next twelve months jumped to 7.0% in April after increasing to 6.0% in March. This compares to a low of 5.0% in November. Interest rates are expected to rise this year by a higher 56.1% of respondents, up from a 45.5% low in November 2024. The percentage of respondents expecting equity prices to increase over the next twelve months declined to 36.1% after dropping from 57.2% in November, while the percentage expecting a decline in stock prices jumped to 48.5% from a 21.7 low in November.

The percentage of respondents planning to buy a home fell in April to 4.5% from 5.6% in March. Plans to purchase an automobile eased to 10.5% this month, down from 10.7% in March and February.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Confidence weakens to lowest level since May 2020.
- Expectations reading plummets to 2011 low; present situation reading eases.
- Inflation and interest rate expectations rise further.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slides Again in April; Inflation Expectations Strengthen

Sandy Batten

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Job openings fell 288,000 to 7.192 million in March from a downwardly revised 7.480 million in February (previously 7.568 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. This is the lowest level of openings since last September although openings have been relatively trendless for the past year. The number of openings continues to exceed the number unemployed, but by only 109,000, the smallest amount since the pandemic, and indicates a relatively balanced labor market. The job openings rate fell to 4.3% in March from 4.5% in February. The March figure was in line with those immediately prior to the pandemic and is well below a high of 7.4% reached in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.

Private sector openings fell 229,000 to 6.359 million in March from 6.588 million in February. The March decline was widely spread with manufacturing (+4,000) and “other” (+20,000) the only major sectors experiencing an increase. Trade, transportation and utilities openings fell 62,000 on top of 198,000 plunge in February. Construction openings fell 38,000, their first monthly decline in three months. Private education and health services openings fell 61,000, their third monthly decline in the past four months. The private sector job openings rate edged down to 4.5% in March from 4.6% in February (revised down from 4.7%). It has fluctuated between 4.4% and 5.0% over the past 13 months without a noticeable trend.

Total hiring edged up 41,000 to 5.411 million in March. This was the second monthly gain in the past six months. Over the past year, hiring has fallen 61,000. Private hiring rose 30,000 to 5.050 million, its fourth consecutive monthly gain although it has fallen 41,000 over the past year. Hiring in leisure and hospitality increased 48,000, the first increase in three months. Private educational and health services hiring rose 36,000, also its first increase in three months. Finance hiring increased 28,000. In contrast, construction hiring fell 45,000, the first monthly decline in three months. And professional and business services hiring fell 43,000. Total government hiring rose 11,000 which included a 1,000 decline in federal government hiring. The total hiring rate was unchanged at 3.4%, where it has been for five of the past six months. The private hiring rate was also unchanged at 3.7% in March for the sixth consecutive month.

Total job separations fell 179,000 to 5.137 million in March. They have been little changed over the past year. Quits increased 82,000 to 3.332 million; layoffs fell 222,000, the largest monthly decline since February 2023; other separations fell 39,000 to 247,000. Quits are voluntary separations initiated by the employee and are often viewed as an indicator of workers’ willingness to leave jobs for other opportunities. Private quits (+91,000 in March to 3.145 million) have been on a modest uptrend since late last year, possibly pointing to a slight firming of the labor market. Private layoffs (separations initiated by the employer) appear to be reversing their uptrend from last year. They fell 229,000 to 1.451 million in March, also their largest monthly decline since Febuary2023, led by a 79,000 monthly decline in leisure and hospitality layoffs and a 56,000 drop in trade, transportation and utilities layoffs.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Job openings fell to 7.192 million from downwardly revised 7.480 million in February.
- The job opening rate slid to 4.3% from 4.5%.
- Hiring was little changed in March.
- Layoffs fell to lowest level since last June.

JOLTS: Openings and Layoffs Fall in March; Hiring Little Changed

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The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods deepened to $162.0 billion in March after narrowing to $147.8 billion in February, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A deficit of $143.0 billion for March had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. In Q1'25, the goods trade deficit widened to $463.2 billion after rising to $324.0 billion in Q4'24 from $305.1 billion in Q3'24. In real terms, the Q1’25 trade deficit is likely to have subtracted from real GDP growth, after having added 0.26 percentage point to growth in Q4'24.

Total goods imports jumped 5.0% (31.3% y/y) to $342.7 billion in March after a 0.3% February gain. Consumer goods imports surged 27.7% (54.1% y/y) following a 2.9% increase. Auto imports strengthened 6.6% (9.5% y/y) after a 1.2% rise while capital goods imports increased 4.0% in March (23.2% y/y) following a 1.7% February gain. Offsetting these increases, imports of industrial supplies & materials declined 13.3% (+39.9% y/y) after falling 3.7% in February. Foods, feeds & beverage imports eased 0.4% (+10.9% y/y) following a 2.1% decline and imports of “other” goods were off 5.6% (+13.7% y/y) after a 4.7% February increase.

Total goods exports rose 1.2% (6.9% y/y) to $180.8 billion in March, the fourth rise in five months, after increasing 3.7% in February. The rise reflected a 6.9% surge (-0.5% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages after a decline of 2.5% In February. Industrial supplies & materials exports gained 3.2% (4.5% y/y) after increasing 4.6% in February. Exports of autos surged 7.9% (10.8% y/y) following a 2.7% increase. Exports of other goods edged 0.3% higher (2.4% y/y) after four straight months of decline. Offsetting these gains, consumer goods exports declined 1.6% (+1.9% y/y) following a 0.6% rise. Capital goods exports were off 2.6% (+13.3% y/y) after rising 4.8% in February.  

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Advance reading reflects higher consumer goods & auto imports.
- Other imports also are strong, while exports rise modestly.
- Exports growth held back by fall in nonauto consumer & capital goods.

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Deepens to Another Record in March as Imports Surge

Winnie Tapasanun

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U.S. house prices edged up 0.1% m/m in February after rises of 0.3% in January (+0.2% initially) and 0.4% in December (+0.5% previously), according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. The February HPI at 437.32 was 13.3% above a low of 386.15 in August 2022. The February m/m reading was the 11th straight monthly gain but the smallest since May 2024. The year-on-year rate of increase decelerated to 3.9% in February, the lowest since June 2023, from 5.0% in January; thus, having remained lower than 7.3% in February 2024 and well below a high of 18.7% in February 2022.

House prices rose m/m in February (vs. January) in six of the nine census divisions. These included New England (1.3% vs. 0.1%), East North Central (0.8% vs. 0.5%), Middle Atlantic (0.6% vs. 1.0%), South Atlantic (0.3% vs. -0.6%), West North Central (0.2% vs. 0.8%), and East South Central (0.1% vs. -0.03%). To the downside, house prices fell m/m in three census divisions in February (vs. January): Pacific (-0.8% vs. 0.6%), Mountain (-0.7% vs. -0.02%), and West South Central (-0.1% vs. 0.9%).

Year-on-year house prices continued to gain in February. However, the pace of increase decelerated y/y in February (vs. January) in all of the nine census divisions. These were Pacific (0.9% vs. 3.6%), West South Central (2.1% vs. 2.8%), South Atlantic (3.2% vs. 4.1%), Mountain (3.5% vs. 4.3%), East South Central (3.7% vs. 4.4%), West North Central (4.2% vs. 5.0%), New England (6.1% vs. 7.5%), East North Central (6.5% vs. 7.0%), and Middle Atlantic (7.0% vs. 8.5%).

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

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- Feb. FHFA HPI +0.1% m/m (+3.9% y/y, lowest since June ’23); +0.3% m/m (+5.0% y/y) in Jan.
- House prices up m/m in six of nine census divisions but down in Pacific, Mountain, and West South Central.
- House prices up y/y in all of the nine regions, w/ the highest rate in Middle Atlantic (7.0%) and the lowest rate in Pacific (0.9%).


U.S. FHFA House Price Growth Continues to Decelerate in February