Global| May 06 2003Chain Store Sales Surged to Record Level
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales jumped 2.1% in the opening week of May according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The rise more than recouped a 1.6% decline the prior week and pulled this measure of consumer spending to a record level. April sales rose 0.1% [...]
Chain store sales jumped 2.1% in the opening week of May according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The rise more than recouped a 1.6% decline the prior week and pulled this measure of consumer spending to a record level.
April sales rose 0.1% from the March average. The latest weekly index level was 4.3% above the December average.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in these chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The BTM-UBSW retail chain-store sales index is constructed from the sales results reported by seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 5/03/03 | 4/26/03 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 417.7 | 409.1 | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% |
by Tom Moeller May 6, 2003
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds target rate unchanged at 1.25%, the lowest level since 1961. The decision was unanimous and as expected by most economists.
The discount rate remained unchanged with primary credit available at 2.25%.
The press release which accompanied the Fed’s action contained the following statement. "Recent readings on production and employment, though mostly reflecting decisions made before the conclusion of hostilities, have proven disappointing. However, the ebbing of geopolitical tensions has rolled back oil prices, bolstered consumer confidence, and strengthened debt and equity markets. These developments, along with the accommodative stance of monetary policy and ongoing growth in productivity, should foster an improving economic climate over time."
With regard to the risks to the economic outlook, the Fed stated that "the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth are roughly equal." The Fed statement added that "the probability of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation, though minor, exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level."
Here is the complete text of the Fed's latest press release.
Analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis of new credit programs at the Discount Window can be found here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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