Global| Mar 31 2004Canada GDP Slowed in January
Summary
The Canadian economy paused in January after four successive gains in monthly GDP. The decrease was a modest -0.1%, including a similar slip in industrial production and a minuscule easing in service-producing industries. [...]
The Canadian economy paused in January after four successive gains in monthly GDP. The decrease was a modest -0.1%, including a similar slip in industrial production and a minuscule easing in service-producing industries. Manufacturing and mining were both off markedly, although it is not really possible to tell if their contractions were simply reactions to December increases, or whether they might have been related to the very cold weather in January or to some fundamental slowing in demand. The role of the cold weather is evident, however, in a counter move in utilities, where output was up 4.1% as people and business needed more heat.
Other industries showed increases as well. Retail trade was up 1.0%, and information and communications were up 1.1%. Among service industries, these were offset by sharp falls in wholesale trade, 3.4%, and transportation and warehousing, 0.8%. Weather was possibly responsible for the reduced volume of transportation, although, as with other sectors, it had been strong at the end of 2003, so this might be no more than a pause after a long climb. If either of these conditions is the primary source of the January slowdown both in this specific sector and in total GDP, an early spring bounce might be in the offing.
| % Chg except where noted | Jan 2004: Bil.Chn. 1997C$ | Jan 2004 | Dec 2003 | Jan 04/ Jan 03 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total GDP | 1,025.4 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| Industrial Production | 243.3 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.4 | -2.3 |
| Manufacturing | 177.6 | -0.7 | 1.2 | -0.7 | -0.4 | 2.9 | -3.6 |
| Mining; Oil & Gas | 37.3 | -1.4 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Utilities | 27.1 | 4.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -2.3 | 2.2 | -2.3 |
| Service Producing | 703.4 | -0.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.5 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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