Global| Oct 28 2003Businessmen Becoming More Optimistic in Germany, the Netherlands and in Italy
Summary
Recent indicators of business confidence for three countries of the Eurozone suggest business men are becoming more optimistic. Business confidence in West Germany rose sharply in October. The IFO index was up 2.39% from September and [...]
Recent indicators of business confidence for three countries of the Eurozone suggest business men are becoming more optimistic.
Business confidence in West Germany rose sharply in October. The IFO index was up 2.39% from September and 7.66% from October of last year. Although the rise in confidence in East Germany was only 0.67% in October, it was 7.06% above October 2002. In both cases, the indexes of confidence were the highest since March, 2001.
In the Netherlands confidence among producers also improved in October. The balance of opinion rose from a negative 4.8% to a negative 3.0%. The balance, however, was 0.6 percentage points below a October, 2002.
In Italy, although the ISAE business confidence index (1995=100) declined slightly in September and in October, the level of confidence is only 0.74% below the high of 95 reached in August of this year and is well above the low point of 90.3 reached in March, 2003.
| Business Confidence | OCT 2003 | SEP 2003 | OCT 2002 | M/M % |
Y/Y % |
2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Germany (1991=100) | 94.2 | 92.0 | 87.5 | 2.39 | 7.66 | 89.0 | 89.8 | 99.3 |
| East Germany (1991=100) | 104.7 | 104.0 | 97.8 | .067 | 7.06 | 98.6 | 101.4 | 106.0 |
| Netherlands (%balance) | -3.0 | -4.8 | -2.4 | 1.8 | -0.6 | -1.6 | -1.1 | 6.8 |
| Italy (1995=100 | 94.3 | 94.6 | 95.0 | -0.32 | -0.74 | 94.0 | 91.9 | 106.4 |
by Carol Stone October 28, 2003
Japanese retail sales continued their erratic progress in September, as reported today by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
Total retail sales held steady in September after August’s 2.8% rise. The year/year decline eroded a bit from August, but still generally extended the stabilizing trend thathas been in place for about a year.
More notably this month, some individual sectors showed clearer firming tendencies. “Fabric, apparel and accessories” outlets continued a rising trend that began in January; it’s not strong, but those stores are at least seeing steady sales instead of the persistent erosion that had gone on for at least 10 years. Motor vehicle dealers have fared better than that all along, but in particular in the last few months, they rebounded from a sinking spell back in the spring. Household “equipment” sales have similarly advanced, and in September held above year ago levels for a second straight month. These are the first two months of positive year-on-year results since March 2001.Several days ago in this space we described an “improving” performance in October consumer confidence in Japan. The “pessimism gap”, as we termed it, is narrowing. These September sales figures suggest that people are tending to act on their better expectations by spending money on such major items as vehicles and household appliances. This would seem a good omen for further recovery, particularly if the stock market there is able to hold to its recent higher range.
| Percent Changes | Month/ Month * Year/Year **|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept | Aug | Sept | Aug | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | |
| Retail Sales, Total | 0.0 | 2.8 | -2.2 | -2.1 | -3.3 | -5.9 | -1.1 |
| Fabric, apparel & accessories | 1.92 | -2.23 | -7.9 | -4.4 | -13.8 | -3.0 | -6.6 |
| Motor Vehicles | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.9 | -3.1 | 1.8 | -7.6 | 11.1 |
| Household machinery/equipment | -0.7 | 11.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | -5.3 | -9.8 | 0.5 |
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