Global| Oct 26 2006Building Permits Down Sharply in 8 of 9 Census Divisions; Only Oil Patch Shows Gain
Summary
It's almost unanimous. Housing is slumping in almost every region of the country. The Census Bureau reported building permit data today for September and the year-to-date for regions, divisions, states and metro areas as well as [...]
It's almost unanimous. Housing is slumping in almost every region of the country. The Census Bureau reported building permit data today for September and the year-to-date for regions, divisions, states and metro areas as well as counties and individual "permit-issuing places", i.e., towns. These data include the number of units, the number of separate buildings and their aggregate value. Haver maintains these in the PERMITY and other PERMIT databases, which are part of our REGIONAL offerings.
As we know, total building permits for the nation have fallen in every month since January; September's were off 5.2% from August (seasonally adjusted) and 31% from a year ago (not seasonally adjusted). Single-family housing permits were down 5.1% from August and 35.6% from September 2005.
The Regional permit data for single-family houses show a year-to-date decline of 13.9% from the comparable period of 2005. Every "division" of the country except "West South Central" has participated in this contraction. The biggest declines in single-family units have been in the Pacific states and the East North Central, both down about 22%. In value terms, the total dollar value of building permits in the Pacific states is down 18.9% and in the East North Central division, 17.8%. The Pacific states include California, Washington, Oregon, Alaska and Hawaii. The East North Central group includes Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.
The West South Central division comprises Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas. This area is benefiting from the surge in energy prices and is also the subject of much rebuilding effort after last year's hurricanes. This latter effect is not yet fully evident, though; permits in New Orleans are still very low, but they have rebounded in Gulfport-Biloxi, Mississippi and Lafayette, Louisiana. In Texas, the energy factor is a notable stimulus: there are major gains in the Midland-Odessa areas in the West Texas oil fields and also in Houston, Dallas and Waco. Even so, in the West South Central division as a whole, the momentum is flagging. In the East South Central States, which include Mississippi plus Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee, the number of permits is down slightly and their value is up. For all Census divisions, the value of permits is not as weak as the number, indicating persisting increases in the value per unit. We did not examine the month-by-month data to see if this is ongoing or if it has petered out as the year has worn on for the weakening housing market and as other home price measures show outright declines. Indeed, the year-on-year price declines in national data for new and existing home sales set in just in the last couple of months, so the year-to-date could still be up from last year. This isn't likely to last much longer, though.
| Building Permits, Single-Family Houses, by Division | Type | Year-to-Date Through September||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | ||
| New England | Number | 26,518 | 32,563 | 31,764 | 28,359 |
| Value (Mil.$) | $5,239 | $6,251 | $5,790 | $4,852 | |
| Middle Atlantic | Number | 56,757 | 63,581 | 65,702 | 59,903 |
| Value (Mil.$) | $10,100 | $10,902 | $10,318 | $8,820 | |
| East North Central | Number | 117,179 | 150,249 | 149,104 | 145,138 |
| Value (Mil.$) | $21,355 | $25,970 | $24,768 | $22,711 | |
| West North Central | Number | 58,730 | 73,264 | 71,593 | 68,881 |
| Value (Mil.$) | $10,170 | $11,923 | $11,015 | $10,061 | |
| South Atlantic | Number | 345,613 | 399,893 | 357,661 | 312,148 |
| Value (Mil.$) | $59,597 | $64,069 | $52,141 | $42,545 | |
| East South Central | Number | 70,270 | 71,707 | 70,193 | 62,550 |
| Value (Mil.$) | $10,438 | $10,113 | $9,219 | $7,588 | |
| West South Central | Number | 167,220 | 161,940 | 143,032 | 133,465 |
| Value (Mil.$) | $25,323 | $23,021 | $19,373 | $17,180 | |
| Mountain | Number | 142,321 | 173,719 | 162,029 | 134,341 |
| Value (Mil.$) | $26,159 | $29,327 | $25,438 | $19,450 | |
| Pacific | Number | 137,741 | 177,339 | 168,764 | 154,026 |
| Value (Mil.$) | $29,389 | $36,225 | $33,374 | $28,782 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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