Global| Jan 05 2012ADP Reports Further Strengthening In Job Growth
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Improvement in the job market continued to pick up steam last month. According to the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic Advisers, private nonfarm payrolls grew 325,000 (0.3% m/m) [...]
Improvement in the job market continued to
pick up steam last month. According to
the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic
consultants Macroeconomic Advisers, private nonfarm payrolls grew
325,000 (0.3% m/m) during December after a 204,000 rise in
November, revised from 206,000. The latest easily beat Consensus
expectations for a 175,000 gain. The recent monthly increases pulled
three-month growth to 2.5% (AR), roughly the strongest since 2.4% as
of February.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report December payroll employment tomorrow. Economists expect a 150,000 worker increase in jobs. By comparison, the November increase of 204,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 140,000 gain in the BLS measure of private sector jobs. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP figure and the BLS data is 0.90. ADP compiles its estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
The service sector again led last month's job market improvement with a 273,000 (1.9% y/y) increase in employment. Goods-producing payrolls also rose 52,000 (1.3% y/y) rise while factory sector jobs rose 22,000 (1.1% y/y). Overall, small-sized payrolls showed the most improvement with a 148,000 (2.0% y/y) gain. Medium-sized payrolls followed with a 140,000 (2.0% y/y) increase and large payrolls rose an improved 37,000 (0.6% y/y). Construction employment rose 9,000 but the number of financial activities jobs fell 8,000.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The ADP methodology is explained here. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP National Employment Report | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) | 325 | 204 | 146 | 1.8% | 1.4% | -1.1% | -4.8% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 148 | 109 | 70 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -0.8 | -3.9 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 140 | 84 | 68 | 2.0 | 1.8 | -1.0 | -5.6 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 37 | 11 | 8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | -2.0 | -5.6 |
| Goods Producing | 52 | 28 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | -5.1 | -12.3 |
| Manufacturing | 22 | 6 | -3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | -3.3 | -11.3 |
| Service Producing | 273 | 176 | 139 | 1.9 | 1.6 | -0.2 | -3.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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