Global| Mar 04 2003A Slight Improvement in the Outlook for Retail Trade in Germany
Summary
Retail sales in Germany, as reported by the Bundesbank, rose 2.2% in January from December, the highest month-to-month rise since February, 2000. All the major categories of retail spending rose except motor vehicles and parts, which [...]
Retail sales in Germany, as reported by the Bundesbank, rose 2.2% in January from December, the highest month-to-month rise since February, 2000. All the major categories of retail spending rose except motor vehicles and parts, which declined by a modest 0.4%. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, the rise was 3.0%. Spending on furniture and household articles, which had been one of the more depressed sectors, rose a hefty 9.1%.
Further evidence that retail spending is showing some signs of recovery is found in the IFO expectations survey for February,. The overall increase in businessmen’s expectations for the next six months was due almost entirely to those engaged in retail trade.
The turn around in retail spending and the improved expectations of businessmen in retail trade is encouraging, but should not be overestimated as the overall level of retail spending is barely above levels reached in 2000.and the balance of businessmen’s expectations is still a negative 21.7% .
| Retail Sales (2000=100) | Jan 2003 | Dec 2002 | M/M% Chg | Y/Y%Chg | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 100.6 | 98.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 100.7 | 102.1 |
| Food, beverage & tobacco | 108.2 | 105.5 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 105.9 | 104.7 |
| Clothing, footwear & leather goods | 93.8 | 92.7 | 1.2 | -1.9 | 95.0 | 99.8 |
| Furniture & household articles | 92.3 | 84.6 | 9.1 | -2.4 | 90.2 | 98.8 |
| Motor vehicle & parts | 104.2 | 104.6 | -0.4 | 2.9 | 104.1 | 102.8 |
| IFO Business Expectations (Percent Balance) | Feb 2003 | Jan 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -8.2 | -8.8 | -3.1 | -15.3 | 5.8 |
| Retail Trade | -21.7 | -29.7 | -28.7 | -11.9 | 1.8 |
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