Viewpoints: July 2023

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in June increased from May in all but 3 states (New Jersey, Indiana, and Montana). Maryland and Washington were the leaders, and the only states with increases above 1 percent. Massachusetts (whose gain in June was just shy of 1 percent) had the largest 3-month increase, close to 4 percent—more than a percentage point above number 2 Maryland. In a sign that growth is cooling 28 states had gains of less than 1 percent in this period, including Montana’s small decline. Over the past 12 months, Massachusetts was once again the leader, with an increase of 6 ¾ percent, with Maryland a point behind (Bay Staters are likely fairly indifferent to that gap given the Orioles’ current lead over the Red Sox). Minnesota and Missouri had increases of less than 1 percent.

The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.73 percent) looks roughly in line of what the state figures suggest, while the corresponding 12-month result (3.50 percent) looks like it might be somewhat stronger than the state numbers.

The July 12, 2023, WSJ article, " Measure It Differently, And Inflation Is Behind Us," triggered a lively debate on housing costs in the CPI. The WSJ article argues that "no one pays" the rent used to measure owners' housing costs, so it should be overlooked or ignored. No one liked the results when BLS included "actual" housing costs based on prices, so government statisticians, academics, and politicians collaborated to change it.

So what is best, a CPI with no price for housing costs, a "fake" price, or an "actual" price? The answer is more than academic, as it will have significant implications for monetary policy and how the business cycle runs and ends.

The main opposition to including the price of a house in the CPI stems from the view that housing is an investment item, disqualifying it from inclusion in the consumer price index. Yet, the CPI has other investment items (e.g., watches, jewelry, etc.). But since the weight of those items is small, their inclusion is not controversial. So is the housing issue, the investment angle, or the weight in the index? It appears to be the latter, as "consistency" in measurement takes a back seat.

Critics also argue that people borrow money to purchase a house. So if the cost of a home, including financing costs, increases every time the Fed raises rates, housing inflation would rise, forcing the Fed to raise rates again and again. People borrow money and finance (credit cards, auto loans, etc. ) every good and service in the CPI, and these financing charges have significantly increased since the Fed raised the official rate. So why should housing financing be treated differently?

A consumer price index, including house prices, does not necessarily mean a higher consumer price index. The consumer price index will yield the same result if house price increases match other items' average growth. Only if house price increases were significant and persistent would there be an impact on the CPI.

The CPI, the government now publishes, has increasingly been enmeshed in the politics of the numbers. Printing a lower CPI than a higher one is more politically acceptable, even if that means including "fake" or "inaccurate" prices over actual prices.

With house prices living outside the standard price index nowadays, it is impossible to ascertain the aggregate actual inflation rate in the economy. That makes the Fed's job on price stability more complicated. That's because setting rates for a price index without housing risks the real cost of credit too low for real estate. Fifty years ago, Professors Alchian and Klein authored a paper, "On a Correct Measure of Inflation, stating " a price index used to measure inflation must include asset prices." Their analysis and conclusion are still valid today.

For a third straight month, the initial estimate of state labor markets for June had only 5 states sieeing statistically significant increases in payrolls, none appreciably numerically large. New York had the highest absolute gain (28,100) and Alabama had a .9% gain. Two states had statistically significant declines, with Indiana losing 13,900 jobs and Vermont recording a 1.4 percent drop (the other 5 New England states had insignificant declines).

11 states had statistically significant drops in unemployment from May to June (the same number as in May). Maryland’s .4 percentage point decline was the highest. Yet again, Nevada’s unemployment rate stayed the highest in the nation at an unchanged 5.4 percent. In another repeat from May, no other state had a rate more than a point higher than the national 3.7 percent, though DC’s was 5.1 percent. Alabama, Maine, Maryland, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, and Wisconsin all have rates more than a point lower than the nation, with New Hampshire and South Dakota both at 1.8 percent. California, Texas, Illinois, Washington, and Delaware (along with DC) are the states other than Nevada with rates at or above 4 percent.

Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate stayed at 6.1 percent. The job count on the island moved below 950,000. The bulk of the 8,200 drop was in the public sector.

The economy remains resilient and core measures of inflation are stubbornly high in the face of the most aggressive Fed tightening in decades. This resilience is partly a result of government stimulus programs during the COVID-19 pandemic. These programs generated a stockpile of excess savings that has continued to support household spending through rising inflation and higher interest rates. The Fed needs to counter that fiscal expansion in its fight against inflation.

Despite all the layoffs and furloughs, household income jumped during the pandemic due to the massive fiscal stimulus. Chart 1 shows the actual level of disposable personal income through the pandemic compared to trend. The income supports totaled more than $2 trillion in 2020-21. As the chart shows, the rise in income supports matched disposable personal income almost dollar for dollar.