Viewpoints: May 2020

The April results for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes were as horrid as one would expect. Only 4 states (Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and Nebraska) had one-month declines smaller than 10 percent [...]

The Fed's debt-bridge policy is designed to improve the flow of credit to businesses to avoid a devastating credit crunch. Never before has one of the monetary policy solutions to combat recession been to extend credit to struggling, [...]

The debacle was complete. All 50 states (and DC) experienced statistically significant declines in payroll employment and statistically significant increases in their unemployment rate in April. 43 states saw new record highs in [...]

In April, federal withheld income tax collections posted a record drop from year-ago levels. The scale of the decline indicates that the reported figures on job loss and unemployment are understating the collapse in labor markets. How [...]

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) composite index for manufacturing fell 7.6 points to 41.5 in April, the lowest level since the Great Financial Recession. As bad as the headline numbers appear at first glance the "internals" [...]

Given the sudden dive in economic activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the April 2020 employment report will be both historic and eye-popping. The unemployment rate is likely to rise to its highest level since the Great Depression, [...]