Viewpoints: July 2019

The happy prophecy of endless growth in the economy generating a continuous flow of strong corporate earnings just ran into trouble—the "truth" on profits. According to GDP data released today Q2 corporate earning posted their largest [...]

Real GDP growth by state continued to be centered in the West in 2019:Q1, although West Virginia's pace, 5.2% at an annual rate, was the fastest in the nation. Eight of the nine other states in the top ten were in the West, led by [...]

The Phillips curve has been dormant for over two decades, as the dynamic between tight labor markets and inflation has virtually disappeared. Yet, the demise of the Phillips curve should not be used as a reason for policymakers to [...]

The June job numbers from the states, like the national figures, showed increases, but except in a few instances these were not statistically significant. Only 4 states reported statistically significant gains—but these included [...]

Preemptive actions is an important feature of monetary policy, but policymakers have never made a preemptive move when the economy's actual performance has been so closely aligned with the Fed's own expectations or when the financial [...]

The strong gains in the US equity markets during the first half of 2019 were mainly driven by the "hope" of new policies than improving fundamentals. Equity investors have been "hoping" that policymakers will reverse course and lower [...]

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for May show that growth is widespread across the nation, with moderate variation. Over the prior 12 months, 32 states had indexes with gains in the 2 to 4 [...]

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for May show that growth is widespread across the nation, with moderate variation. Over the prior 12 months, 32 states had indexes with gains in the 2 to 4 [...]