Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050728c.jpg" width="353">
The Index of Help-Wanted Advertising from the Conference Board inched up to 38 last month. The low reading equaled the average level for the quarter.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the three month change in non-farm payrolls.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume rose modestly to a still low 39%.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month.
The latest help wanted report from the Conference Board is available <a href="http://www.conference-board.org/economics/helpwanted.cfm">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CBDB/@C3/@C3.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">June &#39;04</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">National Help Wanted Index</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>38</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mass Layoffs Down 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> July 28, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050728b.jpg" width="353">
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of mass layoff events dropped 1.8% in June for the second consecutive month. The decline lowered the average number of events so far this year 7.4% versus last year&#39;s first six months.
While the number of firms reporting mass layoffs in June fell to 1,175, these layoffs generated 127,887 (-9.5% y/y) initial claims for unemployment insurance.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the number of mass layoff events and the y/y change in non-farm payrolls.
The Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS) program collects reports on mass layoff actions that result in workers being separated from their jobs. Monthly mass layoff numbers are from establishments which have at least 50 initial claims for unemployment insurance (UI) filed against them during a 5-week period. Extended mass layoff numbers (issued quarterly) are from a subset of such establishments--where private sector non-farm employers indicate that 50 or more workers were separated from their jobs for at least 31 days.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF10/@EF1001/@EF1001.HTM">Mass Layoffs</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Number of Events: All Industries</td>
<td>1,175</td>
<td>1,196</td>
<td>-14.5%</td>
<td>15,900</td>
<td>19,155</td>
<td>20,474</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Numbers of Persons Filing Initial Unemployment Insurance Claim: All Industries</td>
<td>127,887</td>
<td>128,771</td>
<td>-9.5%</td>
<td>1,588,493</td>
<td>1,936,463</td>
<td>2,256,014</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Claims For Jobless Insurance Remained Low 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> July 28, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050728a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance did rise 5,000 to 310,000 last week but the increase hardly dented the 32,000 decline the week previous which was little revised. Consensus expectations had been for an increase to 320,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell slightly to 318,250 (-5.7% y/y), the lowest level since early March.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 32,000 after a 46,000 decline the week earlier which was deeper than initially indicated.
The insured unemployment rate remained at the four year low of 2.0%.
The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve Board can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2005/20050727/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/23/05</th>
<th scope="col">07/16/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>310</td>
<td>305</td>
<td>-8.8%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,603</td>
<td>-11.1%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The Index of Help-Wanted Advertising from the Conference Board inched up to 38 last month. The low reading equaled the average level for the quarter. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of [...]

Help-Wanted Advertising Inched Up

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727e.jpg" width="353">
Total mortgage applications fell 5.8% last week, the fourth decline in the last six weeks according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The decline lowered the average level in July 0.2% below June.
Last week&#39;s decline was led by a 11.4% drop in applications to refinance and they are down 21.8% from the peak in early June.
Purchase applications slipped only 0.7% w/w but it was the fifth decline in the last six weeks. Nevertheless, the average level in July remained 0.9% ahead of June. During the last ten years there has been a 49% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage crept up to 5.98% while the effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.63%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/22/05</th>
<th scope="col">07/15/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>754.3</td>
<td>801.1</td>
<td>21.4%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>485.1</td>
<td>488.7</td>
<td>9.1%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,320.2</td>
<td>2,618.2</td>
<td>40.7%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Total mortgage applications fell 5.8% last week, the fourth decline in the last six weeks according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The decline lowered the average level in July 0.2% below June. Last week's decline was led by a [...]

Mortgage Applications Fell

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New single-family home sales jumped 4.0% in June to 1.374M on top of the upwardly revised 3.0% gain in May. The figure set a new record and sales during the last six months averaged 1.288M, up 7.7% from last year&#39;s first six months. Consensus estimates had been for sales in June of 1.30M.
Sales rose across the country but the notable 7.2% rise in the Northeast lifted sales 14.1% versus last year.
The median price of a new single family home slipped for the second consecutive month. The 5.5% decline to $214,800 (-0.4% y/y) followed upward revisions to prior months&#39; figures.
The figures from the Census Department reflect homes sold.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727c.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727d.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E90401/@E90401.HTM">Homes Sales (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>1,298</td>
<td>1,271</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>1,200</td>
<td>1,091</td>
<td>976</td>
</tr>
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</table>
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New single-family home sales jumped 4.0% in June to 1.374M on top of the upwardly revised 3.0% gain in May. The figure set a new record and sales during the last six months averaged 1.288M, up 7.7% from last year's first six months. [...]

New Home Sales Jumped Again

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727b.jpg" width="353">
New orders for durable goods added 1.4% last month to the upwardly revised 6.4% jump in May. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% decline.
Strength in the factory sector was quite apparent in a 2.6% rise in durable goods orders outside of the transportation sector as well as a 0.9% gain in these orders in May, revised up from a 0.2% decline reported initially. Computer &amp; electronic equipment orders jumped 8.6% (19.0% y/y) after a 1.5% May rise, initially reported as a 1.2% decline. Orders for communication equipment surged 18.3% and were one third higher than last year.
Machinery orders jumped 3.7% (11.9% y/y) but with a 0.1% decline (+13.1% y/y) electrical equipment orders gave back a piece of the very much upwardly revised 3.4% spurt in May.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727a.jpg" width="353">
Orders for aircraft &amp; parts fell just 22.1% (+49.8% y/y) following the more-than-doubling of orders in May while orders for motor vehicles &amp; parts slipped 0.1% (-2.3% y/y).
Non-defense capital goods orders slipped due to the decline in aircraft but less aircraft orders posted the strongest monthly gain since January. Nevertheless, shipments of nondefense capital goods less aircraft fell 0.4% (+10.1% y/y). The decline in shipments followed gains of 1.2% and 1.5% during the prior two months.
Durable inventories fell 0.3% (+7.1% y/y) for the second monthly decline in the last three while May&#39;s gain was revised lower to just 0.1%.
Unfilled orders jumped another 2.6% (9.8% y/y) but outside of the transportation sector backlogs rose a lesser 1.6% (9.2% y/y). The ratio of backlogs to shipments outside of transportation rose to the highest level in over a year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>10.6%</td>
<td>13.1%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>16.1%</td>
<td>25.7%</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>13.0%</td>
<td>11.7%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

New orders for durable goods added 1.4% last month to the upwardly revised 6.4% jump in May. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% decline. Strength in the factory sector was quite apparent in a 2.6% rise in durable goods orders [...]

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Firm, Revisions Positive

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727b.jpg" width="353">
New orders for durable goods added 1.4% last month to the upwardly revised 6.4% jump in May. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% decline.
Strength in the factory sector was quite apparent in a 2.6% rise in durable goods orders outside of the transportation sector as well as a 0.9% gain in these orders in May, revised up from a 0.2% decline reported initially. Computer &amp; electronic equipment orders jumped 8.6% (19.0% y/y) after a 1.5% May rise, initially reported as a 1.2% decline. Orders for communication equipment surged 18.3% and were one third higher than last year.
Machinery orders jumped 3.7% (11.9% y/y) but with a 0.1% decline (+13.1% y/y) electrical equipment orders gave back a piece of the very much upwardly revised 3.4% spurt in May.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727a.jpg" width="353">
Orders for aircraft &amp; parts fell just 22.1% (+49.8% y/y) following the more-than-doubling of orders in May while orders for motor vehicles &amp; parts slipped 0.1% (-2.3% y/y).
Non-defense capital goods orders slipped due to the decline in aircraft but less aircraft orders posted the strongest monthly gain since January. Nevertheless, shipments of nondefense capital goods less aircraft fell 0.4% (+10.1% y/y). The decline in shipments followed gains of 1.2% and 1.5% during the prior two months.
Durable inventories fell 0.3% (+7.1% y/y) for the second monthly decline in the last three while May&#39;s gain was revised lower to just 0.1%.
Unfilled orders jumped another 2.6% (9.8% y/y) but outside of the transportation sector backlogs rose a lesser 1.6% (9.2% y/y). The ratio of backlogs to shipments outside of transportation rose to the highest level in over a year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>10.6%</td>
<td>13.1%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>16.1%</td>
<td>25.7%</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>13.0%</td>
<td>11.7%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
New Home Sales Jumped Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> July 27, 2005


New single-family home sales jumped 4.0% in June to 1.374M on top of the upwardly revised 3.0% gain in May. The figure set a new record and sales during the last six months averaged 1.288M, up 7.7% from last year&#39;s first six months. Consensus estimates had been for sales in June of 1.30M.
Sales rose across the country but the notable 7.2% rise in the Northeast lifted sales 14.1% versus last year.
The median price of a new single family home slipped for the second consecutive month. The 5.5% decline to $214,800 (-0.4% y/y) followed upward revisions to prior months&#39; figures.
The figures from the Census Department reflect homes sold.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727c.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727d.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E90401/@E90401.HTM">Homes Sales (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>1,298</td>
<td>1,271</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>1,200</td>
<td>1,091</td>
<td>976</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Applications Fell 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> July 27, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727e.jpg" width="353">
Total mortgage applications fell 5.8% last week, the fourth decline in the last six weeks according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The decline lowered the average level in July 0.2% below June.
Last week&#39;s decline was led by a 11.4% drop in applications to refinance and they are down 21.8% from the peak in early June.
Purchase applications slipped only 0.7% w/w but it was the fifth decline in the last six weeks. Nevertheless, the average level in July remained 0.9% ahead of June. During the last ten years there has been a 49% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage crept up to 5.98% while the effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.63%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/22/05</th>
<th scope="col">07/15/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>754.3</td>
<td>801.1</td>
<td>21.4%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>485.1</td>
<td>488.7</td>
<td>9.1%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,320.2</td>
<td>2,618.2</td>
<td>40.7%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050726d.jpg" width="353">
The decline of 11% in the euro to around 1.20 against the US dollar from 1.35 at the end of last year seems to have boosted business confidence in Germany and Italy. Business confidence in Italy and Germany rose for the second month in July to five month highs. In Italy, the ISAE (Institute of Studies and Economic Analyses) index of business confidence rose 1.3% from June to July, but was still 5.1% below July of last year. The IFO (Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung) index in Germany rose 1.8% from June to July and was only 0.5% below July, 2004. Business confidence in Italy is some 14% below 2000 while that of Germany is only 5% below 2000. The first chart shows the business confidence indexes for Germany and Italy.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050726e.jpg" width="353">
The 9% decline in the British pound from $1.92 at the end of last year to around $1.75 currently may also have accounted for the improvement in confidence shown in the CBI (Confederation of British Industries) Industrial Trends Survey. As in Italy, the improvement is from a low level. The balance of respondents reporting on the volume of their order books rose to a negative 20 from a negative 25 from June to July. Despite the decline of the euro, business confidence in the Netherlands continued to weaken. In July pessimists in the Netherlands out weighed the optimists by 3.7% a 2 point increase from the 1.7% in June. The second charts shows the percent balances for the U. K. and the Netherlands.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jul&nbsp; 05</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 05</th>
<th scope="col">Jul 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M%</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y%</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany: IFO (2000=100)</td>
<td>95.0</td>
<td>93.3</td>
<td>95.5</td>
<td>1.82</td>
<td>-0.52</td>
<td>95.7</td>
<td>91.7</td>
<td>89.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy ISAE (2000=100)</td>
<td>86.0</td>
<td>84.9</td>
<td>90.6</td>
<td>1.30</td>
<td>-5.08</td>
<td>89.5</td>
<td>88.0</td>
<td>90.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Netherlands Producer Confidence (% balance)</td>
<td>-3.7</td>
<td>-1.7</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>-2.0</td>
<td>-4.4</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-5.6</td>
<td>-1.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey Order Book in volume (% balance)</td>
<td>-20</td>
<td>-25</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td>-29</td>
<td>-27</td>
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The decline of 11% in the euro to around 1.20 against the US dollar from 1.35 at the end of last year seems to have boosted business confidence in Germany and Italy. Business confidence in Italy and Germany rose for the second month [...]

Currency Declines Boost Business Confidence in Italy, Germany and the U. K. but Fail to Do So in the Netherlands

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Chain store sales increased 0.4% last week according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. This fourth consecutive gain lifted sales so far in July 0.5% higher than during June when sales fell 0.4% versus May.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC recovered a piece of the prior week&#39;s sharp decline with a 0.3% w/w (0.3% y/y) rise.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/23/05</th>
<th scope="col">07/16/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>458.5</td>
<td>456.9</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
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Chain store sales increased 0.4% last week according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. This fourth consecutive gain lifted sales so far in July 0.5% higher than during June when sales fell 0.4% versus [...]

Chain Store Sales Post Another Solid Gain

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050726b.jpg" width="353">
In the US, the average price for unleaded regular gasoline dipped to $2.29 per gallon last week from $2.32 or more during the prior two weeks. Early month strength lifted the July average so far 6.2% above June. In 2005 gasoline prices have averaged $2.10 per gallon of regular grade versus $1.85 last year.
The price of crude oil also has fallen of late with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude yesterday at $56.01. Earlier in the month crude oil prices briefly touched $61.29/bbl. and have averaged $58.60 in July versus $41.44 during 2004.
Wholesale natural gas prices held steady at $7.77/mmbtu (33.0% y/y) last week. The average price during July is up 7.2% versus June.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D306.HTM">Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/25/05</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$2.29</td>
<td>$1.79</td>
<td>20.2%</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel)</td>
<td>$57.47</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>40.7%</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
<td>$31.23</td>
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In the US, the average price for unleaded regular gasoline dipped to $2.29 per gallon last week from $2.32 or more during the prior two weeks. Early month strength lifted the July average so far 6.2% above June. In 2005 gasoline [...]

Gasoline Prices Dipped Last Week, Up 6.2% in July

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: July 2005

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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Firm, Revisions Positive

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