Tom Moeller

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Consumers are exhibiting cautious spending behavior despite firm income gains. Personal consumption expenditures
improved 0.12% (2.9% y/y) in October, the same as September's 0.08% rise which was unrevised. These were the smallest gains
since January and missed expectations for a 0.3% rise in the Action Economics
Forecast Survey. Adjusted for inflation, spending inched 0.06% higher (2.7%
y/y). A 0.7% decline (+3.4% y/y) in real motor vehicle purchases held back the
overall rise, though it followed three months of increase. Constant dollar buying of recreational goods &amp;
vehicles made up that weakness with a 0.9% rise (8.4% y/y) after a 0.8%
increase. Home furnishings &amp; appliance purchases increased 0.6% (6.2% y/y)
in constant dollars following a 0.1% dip. In the nondurable goods sector, real
apparel purchases surged 0.8% (4.3% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Real gasoline
purchases fell 0.3% (+2.0% y/y) after a 1.5% decline and the constant dollar value of eating out
dropped 0.8% (-0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four. Real spending on services
was unchanged (2.2% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Real spending on recreation services rose
0.5% (0.3% y/y) after a 1.0% jump but constant dollar housing &amp; utilities
outlays fell 0.8% (+0.8% y/y). Health care spending advanced 0.4% (4.1% y/y) in real terms,
the same as the prior month.&nbsp;
Personal income improved 0.4% (4.6% y/y) for the third time in four
months. The increase matched expectations and reflected a 0.6% gain (4.9% y/y)
in wage &amp; salary
income after having been unchanged in September.
Rental income jumped 0.8% (7.2% y/y), the strongest increase in four months. Proprietors
earnings rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Dividend earnings jumped 0.9%
(5.5% y/y), the strongest rise in three months, but interest earnings fell 0.2%
(+3.4% y/y) following three straight 0.1% upticks. Transfer receipts improved
0.3% (4.9% y/y), the same in the prior month. The gain was held back
by a 2.8% decline (+1.0% y/y) in unemployment insurance benefits but Medicaid income rose
0.7% (7.6% y/y). Veterans benefits also rose 0.7% (12.1% y/y) and Medicare
payments improved 0.5% (4.0% y/y).&nbsp;
Disposable personal income jumped 0.4% and gains have been fairly steady for
the last six months. The 4.1% y/y rise matched growth during all of last year.
Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay rose 3.9% y/y, up from the 2.7%
increase last year.
The personal savings rate improved to 5.6% from 5.3%, revised from
4.8%. The rate was the highest since 2012. Personal saving increased 30.7%
during the last twelve months.
The chain price index improved 0.1% (0.2% y/y) following two months of
slight decline. The index change was held back by a 0.2% dip (2.0% y/y) in
durable goods prices but food prices improved 0.2% (0.8% y/y) for the fourth straight
month. Nondurable goods prices eased slightly (-3.7% y/y) while energy prices
gained 0.2% (-18.4% y/y). Services prices
improved 0.1% (1.9% y/y) after two months of 0.2% rise. The price index excluding
food &amp; energy remained unchanged (1.3% y/y) after a 0.2% rise.
The personal income &amp; consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON
database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is
in the AS1REPNA database.
Global Fallout from China's Industrial Slowdown from the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/november/global-fallout-from-china-industrial-slowdown/?utm_source=frbsf-home-economic-letter-title&amp;utm_medium=frbsf&amp;utm_campaign=economic-letter">here</a>.


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<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
	
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Personal Income &amp; Outlays
 (%)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Oct</th>
 <th scope="col" >Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" >Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 <th scope="col" >2013</th>
 <th scope="col" >2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal Income</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >4.6</td>
 <td >4.4</td>
 <td >1.1</td>
 <td >5.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >0.0</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >4.9</td>
 <td >5.1</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >4.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Disposable Personal Income</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >4.1</td>
 <td >4.2</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >5.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 <td >4.2</td>
 <td >3.1</td>
 <td >3.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal Saving Rate</td>
 <td >5.6</td>
 <td >5.3</td>
 <td >5.2</td>
 <td >4.5 
 (Oct. '14)</td>
 <td >4.8</td>
 <td >4.8</td>
 <td >7.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >PCE Chain Price Index</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >-0.0</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >1.4</td>
 <td >1.4</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Less Food &amp; Energy</td>
 <td >0.0</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Real Disposable Income</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >3.9</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >-1.4</td>
 <td >3.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Real Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >1.7</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


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Consumers are exhibiting cautious spending behavior despite firm income gains. Personal consumption expenditures improved 0.12% (2.9% y/y) in October, the same as September's 0.08% rise which was unrevised. These were the smallest [...]

U.S. Personal Spending Inches Higher as Income Strengthens

Sandy Batten

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Durable goods orders started the third quarter strongly, jumping up 3.0%/m (0.5% y/y) in October against an expectation (Action Economics Forecast Survey) of a 1.5% m/m increase. And the 1.2% m/m decline initially reported for orders in September was revised up to a 0.8% m/m drop. A 81% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft orders more than accounted for the October increase in overall orders (this was offset slightly by a decline in motor vehicle orders). Excluding orders in the transportation sector, orders rose a more modest, but still larger-than-expected, 0.5% m/m in October (-2.4% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.1% m/m decline in September.

Especially encouraging was the performance of core capital goods orders (capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft) in October. They rose 1.3% m/m (0.4% y/y) with the initially reported 0.1% m/m decline in September revised up to a 0.4% m/m increase. With the September revision and October jump, core capital goods orders in October stood more than 6% at an annual rate above the 3Q average, auguring for some further improvement in business capital spending in the fourth quarter. However, the strength in orders has yet to be reflected in actual shipments of capital goods. Core capital goods shipments (a real-time proxy for capex) slipped 0.4% m/m in October (-0.5% y/y) but after an upwardly revised 0.7% m/m rise in September. So, the October level of shipments was about equal to the 3Q average. Hopefully, the rise in capital goods orders will soon translate in increased shipments.

Across the major sectors, apart from the 8.0% m/m increase in transportation orders, overall orders were also lifted by a 1.6% m/m rise in machinery orders and a 1.8% m/m increase in computer orders. Orders for electrical equipment ( 1.1% m/m) exerted the largest drag on overall orders in October.

In other parts of the report, shipments of durable goods fell 1.0% m/m (0.1% y/y) in October following a 0.2% m/m increase in September. Unfilled orders rebounded, rising 0.3% m/m (-2.0% y/y) after a 0.5% m/m fall in September. And inventories slipped 0.2% /m (0.7% y/y), the fifth monthly decline in the past six months.

The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

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<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Durable Goods NAICS
 Classification</th>
 <th>Oct</th>
 <th>Sep</th>
 <th>Aug</th>
 <th>Oct Y/Y</th>
 <th>2014</th>
 <th>2013</th>
 <th>2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >New Orders (SA, %)</td>
 <td >2.99</td>
 <td >-0.82</td>
 <td >-2.94</td>
 <td >0.51</td>
 <td >6.8</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >6.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Transportation</td>
 <td >8.04</td>
 <td >-2.24</td>
 <td >-6.88</td>
 <td >6.53</td>
 <td >6.1</td>
 <td >6.5</td>
 <td >16.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Total Excluding Transportation</td>
 <td >0.53</td>
 <td >-0.11</td>
 <td >-0.85</td>
 <td >-2.37</td>
 <td >7.2</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
 <td >13.23</td>
 <td >-6.05</td>
 <td >-4.62</td>
 <td >3.8</td>
 <td >6.6</td>
 <td >2.8</td>
 <td >10.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Aircraft</td>
 <td >1.32</td>
 <td >0.39</td>
 <td >-1.45</td>
 <td >0.36</td>
 <td >6.3</td>
 <td >-1.0</td>
 <td >7.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Shipments</td>
 <td >-1.02</td>
 <td >0.24</td>
 <td >-0.50</td>
 <td >0.09</td>
 <td >4.8</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 <td >6.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Inventories</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >6.1</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >3.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Unfilled Orders</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >-0.5</td>
 <td >-0.3</td>
 <td >-2.1</td>
 <td >11.4</td>
 <td >6.4</td>
 <td >7.5</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
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Durable goods orders started the third quarter strongly, jumping up 3.0%/m (0.5% y/y) in October against an expectation (Action Economics Forecast Survey) of a 1.5% m/m increase. And the 1.2% m/m decline initially reported for orders [...]

Durable Goods Orders Rebound More Strongly Than Expected in October

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly fell to 260,000 in the week ending November 21 from a slightly upwardly revised 272,000 the previous week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for an unchanged reading of 271,000. The four-week moving average was unchanged at 271,000, still hovering around its 15-year low. When adjusted by the size of the labor market or population, the current level of claims is the lowest in its more than 65-year history.
In the week ending November 14, continuing claims for unemployment insurance (reported with a one-week lag) edged up to 2.207 million (but were still down 5.6% from a year earlier). The four-week moving average also edged up to 2.182 million but remained near a 15-year low.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.6%, its lowest reading since June 2000.
The insured rate of unemployment across states continued to vary within a wide range. The lowest was in South Dakota (0.3%), followed by Nebraska (0.5%) and North Dakota (0.6%). At the other end of the spectrum, the highest rates were in Alaska (3.6%), New Jersey (2.4%) and Pennsylvania (2.1%). The by-state data are not seasonally adjusted and reported with a two-week lag relative to the headline figure.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY
database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual
states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action
Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.


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	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" 0801 >Unemployment Insurance (000s)</th>
 <th 0801>11/21/15</th>
 <th 0801>11/14/15</th>
 <th 0801>11/07/15</th>
 <th 0801>Y/Y %</th>
 <th 0801 >2014</th>
 <th 0801 >2013</th>
 <th 0801 >2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" 0801 >Initial Claims</td>
 <td 0801 >260</td>
 <td 0801 >272</td>
 <td 0801 >276</td>
 <td 0801 >-14.19</td>
 <td 0801 >307</td>
 <td 0801 >342</td>
 <td 0801 >372</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" 0801 >Continuing Claims</td>
 <td 0801 >--</td>
 <td 0801 >2,207</td>
 <td 0801 >2,173</td>
 <td 0801 >-5.64</td>
 <td 0801 >2,607</td>
 <td 0801 >2,978</td>
 <td 0801 >3,308</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" 0801 >Insured Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
 <td 0801 >--</td>
 <td 0801 >1.6</td>
 <td 0801 >1.6</td>
 <td 0801 >
 1.8 
 (Nov. 2014)
 </td>
 <td 0801 >2.0</td>
 <td 0801 >2.3</td>
 <td 0801 >2.6</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


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Initial claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly fell to 260,000 in the week ending November 21 from a slightly upwardly revised 272,000 the previous week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for an unchanged reading [...]

US Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fall Unexpectedly

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<title>Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Moderate Economic Growth by
Tom Moeller&nbsp; October 22</title>
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Consumers are exhibiting cautious spending behavior despite
firm income gains. Personal consumption expenditures
improved 0.12% (2.9% y/y) in October, near September's 0.08% rise which was
unrevised. These were the smallest gains
since January and missed expectations for a 0.3% rise in the Action Economics
Forecast Survey. Adjusted for inflation, spending inched 0.06% higher (2.7%
y/y). A 0.7% decline (+3.4% y/y) in real motor vehicle purchases held back the
overall rise, though it followed three months of increase. Constant dollar buying of recreational goods &amp;
vehicles made up that weakness with a 0.9% rise (8.4% y/y) after a 0.8%
increase. Home furnishings &amp; appliance purchases increased 0.6% (6.2% y/y)
in constant dollars following a 0.1% dip. In the nondurable goods sector, real
apparel purchases surged 0.8% (4.3% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Real gasoline
purchases fell 0.3% (+2.0% y/y) after a 1.5% decline and the constant dollar value of eating out
dropped 0.8% (-0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four. Real spending on services
was unchanged (2.2% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Real spending on recreation services rose
0.5% (0.3% y/y) after a 1.0% jump but constant dollar housing &amp; utilities
outlays fell 0.8% (+0.8% y/y). Health care spending advanced 0.4% (4.1% y/y) in real terms,
the same as the prior month.&nbsp;
Personal income improved 0.4% (4.6% y/y) for the third time in four
months. The increase matched expectations and reflected a 0.6% gain (4.9% y/y)
in wage &amp; salary
income after having been unchanged in September.
Rental income jumped 0.8% (7.2% y/y), the strongest increase in four months. Proprietors
earnings rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Dividend earnings jumped 0.9%
(5.5% y/y), the strongest rise in three months, but interest earnings fell 0.2%
(+3.4% y/y) following three straight 0.1% upticks. Transfer receipts improved
0.3% (4.9% y/y), the same in the prior month. The gain was held back
by a 2.8% decline (+1.0% y/y) in unemployment insurance benefits but Medicaid income rose
0.7% (7.6% y/y). Veterans benefits also rose 0.7% (12.1% y/y) and Medicare
payments improved 0.5% (4.0% y/y).&nbsp;
Disposable personal income jumped 0.4% and gains have been fairly steady for
the last six months. The 4.1% y/y rise matched growth during all of last year.
Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay rose 3.9% y/y, up from the 2.7%
increase last year.
The personal savings rate improved to 5.6% from 5.3%, revised from
4.8%. The rate was the highest since 2012. Personal saving increased 30.7%
during the last twelve months.
The chain price index improved 0.1% (0.2% y/y) following two months of
slight decline. The index change was held back by a 0.2% dip (2.0% y/y) in
durable goods prices but food prices improved 0.2% (0.8% y/y) for the fourth straight
month. Nondurable goods prices eased slightly (-3.7% y/y) while energy prices
gained 0.2% (-18.4% y/y). Services prices
improved 0.1% (1.9% y/y) after two months of 0.2% rise. The price index excluding
food &amp; energy remained unchanged (1.3% y/y) after a 0.2% rise.
The personal income &amp; consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON
database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is
in the AS1REPNA database.
Global Fallout from China's Industrial Slowdown from the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/november/global-fallout-from-china-industrial-slowdown/?utm_source=frbsf-home-economic-letter-title&amp;utm_medium=frbsf&amp;utm_campaign=economic-letter">http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/november/global-fallout-from-china-industrial-slowdown/?utm_source=frbsf-home-economic-letter-title&amp;utm_medium=frbsf&amp;utm_campaign=economic-letter</a>
<table class="centered" border="0" cellspacing="0" width="1871">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="949">Personal Income &amp; Outlays
 (%)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Oct</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">2014</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">2013</th>
 <th scope="col" width="132">2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Personal Income</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">5.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">&nbsp;&nbsp;Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">4.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Disposable Personal Income</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">5.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">3.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">3.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Personal Saving Rate</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.5 
 (Oct. '14)</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">7.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">PCE Chain Price Index</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">&nbsp;&nbsp;Less Food &amp; Energy</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Real Disposable Income</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">3.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">3.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Real Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">1.5</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
U.S. New Home Sales Rise M/M but Tread Water This
Year 
by <a href="http://haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;November
25, 2015
Sales of new single-family homes increased 10.7% during October to 495,000
(AR) from 447,000 in September, revised from 468,000. The gain left sales up
4.9% y/y but unchanged since December. Sales of 500,000 had been expected in the
Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise contrasts to Monday's report of a
3.7% decline in existing single-family homes.
The median price of a new home plunged 8.5% from September and was down 6.0%
y/y. The average sales price declined 1.0% m/m and was off 4.7% y/y.
Home sales in the Northeast more-than-doubled to 40,000 following a sharp
decline in September. Sales were at the highest level since January 2010. Sales
in the South also were firm, rising 8.9% to 281,000 (5.2% y/y). Sales in the
Midwest gained 5.3% to 60,000 but were down 4.8% y/y. Home sales in the West
eased 0.9% to 114,000 and were off 2.6% y/y.
The inventory of unsold homes increased 8.7% y/y and there was 5.5 months
supply at the current sales rate. That figure is up slightly from 4.8 months at
the beginning of the year. The median number of months a new home was for sale
fell to a record low of 2.8.&nbsp; 
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The
consensus expectation figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is
available in the AS1REPNA database.
Five Questions Related to U.S. Monetary Policy is the title of St.
Louis Fed President &amp; CEO James Bullard's speech and it can be found
here&nbsp; <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/2015/11/20/st-louis-feds-bullard-discusses-five-questions-related-to-us-monetary-policy">https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/2015/11/20/st-louis-feds-bullard-discusses-five-questions-related-to-us-monetary-policy</a>
&nbsp;
<table class="centered" border="0" cellspacing="0" width="1871">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="878">U.S. New Single-Family
 Home Sales (SAAR, 000s)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Oct</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Y/Y %, SA</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">2014</th>
 <th scope="col" width="142">2013</th>
 <th scope="col" width="142">2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">Total</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">495</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">447</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">513</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">4.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">440</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">430</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">368</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">40</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">17</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">32</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">60.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">28</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">31</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">29</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">60</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">57</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">59</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">-4.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">58</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">61</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">47</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; South</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">281</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">258</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">297</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">5.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">244</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">233</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">195</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; West</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">114</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">115</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">125</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">-2.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">110</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">106</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">97</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">Median Price (NSA, $)</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">281,500</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">307,800</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">294,600</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">-6.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">283,775</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">265,092</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">242,108</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>





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Personal consumption expenditures improved 0.12% (2.9% y/y) in October, near September's 0.08% rise which was unrevised. These were the smallest gains since January and missed expectations for a 0.3% rise in the Action Economics [...]

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<title>Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Moderate Economic Growth by
Tom Moeller&nbsp; October 22</title>
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Consumers are exhibiting cautious spending behavior despite
firm income gains. Personal consumption expenditures
improved 0.12% (2.9% y/y) in October, the same as September's rise which was
unrevised. These were the smallest gains
since January and missed expectations for a 0.3% rise in the Action Economics
Forecast Survey. Adjusted for inflation, spending inched 0.06% higher (2.7%
y/y). A 0.7% decline (+3.4% y/y) in real motor vehicle purchases held back the
overall rise, though it followed three months of increase. Constant dollar buying of recreational goods &amp;
vehicles made up that weakness with a 0.9% rise (8.4% y/y) after a 0.8%
increase. Home furnishings &amp; appliance purchases increased 0.6% (6.2% y/y)
in constant dollars following a 0.1% dip. In the nondurable goods sector, real
apparel purchases surged 0.8% (4.3% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Real gasoline
purchases fell 0.3% (+2.0% y/y) after a 1.5% decline and the constant dollar value of eating out
dropped 0.8% (-0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four. Real spending on services
was unchanged (2.2% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Real spending on recreation services rose
0.5% (0.3% y/y) after a 1.0% jump but constant dollar housing &amp; utilities
outlays fell 0.8% (+0.8% y/y). Health care spending advanced 0.4% (4.1% y/y) in real terms,
the same as the prior month.&nbsp;
Personal income improved 0.4% (4.6% y/y) for the third time in four
months. The increase matched expectations and reflected a 0.6% gain (4.9% y/y)
in wage &amp; salary
income after having been unchanged in September.
Rental income jumped 0.8% (7.2% y/y), the strongest increase in four months. Proprietors
earnings rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Dividend earnings jumped 0.9%
(5.5% y/y), the strongest rise in three months, but interest earnings fell 0.2%
(+3.4% y/y) following three straight 0.1% upticks. Transfer receipts improved
0.3% (4.9% y/y), the same in the prior month. The gain was held back
by a 2.8% decline (+1.0% y/y) in unemployment insurance benefits but Medicaid income rose
0.7% (7.6% y/y). Veterans benefits also rose 0.7% (12.1% y/y) and Medicare
payments improved 0.5% (4.0% y/y).&nbsp;
Disposable personal income jumped 0.4% and gains have been fairly steady for
the last six months. The 4.1% y/y rise matched growth during all of last year.
Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay rose 3.9% y/y, up from the 2.7%
increase last year.
The personal savings rate improved to 5.6% from 5.3%, revised from
4.8%. The rate was the highest since 2012. Personal saving increased 30.7%
during the last twelve months.
The chain price index improved 0.1% (0.2% y/y) following two months of
slight decline. The index change was held back by a 0.2% dip (2.0% y/y) in
durable goods prices but food prices improved 0.2% (0.8% y/y) for the fourth straight
month. Nondurable goods prices eased slightly (-3.7% y/y) while energy prices
gained 0.2% (-18.4% y/y). Services prices
improved 0.1% (1.9% y/y) after two months of 0.2% rise. The price index excluding
food &amp; energy remained unchanged (1.3% y/y) after a 0.2% rise.
The personal income &amp; consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON
database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is
in the AS1REPNA database.
Global Fallout from China's Industrial Slowdown from the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/november/global-fallout-from-china-industrial-slowdown/?utm_source=frbsf-home-economic-letter-title&amp;utm_medium=frbsf&amp;utm_campaign=economic-letter">http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/november/global-fallout-from-china-industrial-slowdown/?utm_source=frbsf-home-economic-letter-title&amp;utm_medium=frbsf&amp;utm_campaign=economic-letter</a>
<table class="centered" border="0" cellspacing="0" width="1871">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="949">Personal Income &amp; Outlays
 (%)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Oct</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">2014</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">2013</th>
 <th scope="col" width="132">2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Personal Income</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">5.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">&nbsp;&nbsp;Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">4.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Disposable Personal Income</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">5.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">3.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">3.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Personal Saving Rate</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.5 
 (Oct. '14)</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">7.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">PCE Chain Price Index</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">&nbsp;&nbsp;Less Food &amp; Energy</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Real Disposable Income</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">3.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">3.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Real Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">1.5</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
U.S. New Home Sales Weaken but Prices Rebound 
by <a href="http://haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;November
25, 2015
Recent housing market data are throwing off mixed signals. On the heels of
Thursday's report that existing home sales in September neared a nine-year high,
today's indication that new single-family home sales fell 11.5% last month to
468,000 (AR) left them up 2.0% y/y as the prior two months were revised lower.
Sales were at the lowest level since November. Expectations had been for 547,000
sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The median price of a new single-family rose 2.7% (13.5% y/y) to $296,000.
The reversal of an August decline left them at this year's highest level and
one-third firmer than the 2010 average. The average price of a new single-family
home jumped 6.2% (14.1% y/y) to $364,000, the highest level since December.
Home sales were notably weak last month in the Northeast as they fell 61.8%
to 13,000 (-56.7% y/y). Sales in other regions of the country also declined but
to lesser degrees. In the South, sales were off 8.7% to 274,000 but rose 8.3%
y/y. Sales in the Midwest fell 8.3% both m/m and y/y to 55,000 and sales in the
West declined 6.7% to 126,000 (+8.6% y/y).
The easing of home sales prompted a rise in the supply of homes on the market
to 5.8 months at the current sales rate, the highest level since July of last
year. Working the other way, however, the median number of months a home was on
the market declined to 3.3, the least since February.
Five Questions Related to U.S. Monetary Policy is the title of St.
Louis Fed President &amp; CEO James Bullard's speech and it can be found
here&nbsp; <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/2015/11/20/st-louis-feds-bullard-discusses-five-questions-related-to-us-monetary-policy">https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/2015/11/20/st-louis-feds-bullard-discusses-five-questions-related-to-us-monetary-policy</a>
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The
consensus expectation figure from the Action Economics survey is available in
the AS1REPNA database.
<table class="centered" border="0" cellspacing="0" width="1871">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="878">U.S. New Single-Family
 Home Sales (SAAR, 000s)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Oct</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Oct Y/Y %</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">2014</th>
 <th scope="col" width="142">2013</th>
 <th scope="col" width="142">2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">Total</td>
 <td align="center" width="141"></td>
 <td align="center" width="141">468</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">529</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">2.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">440</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">430</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">368</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
 <td align="center" width="141"></td>
 <td align="center" width="141">13</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">34</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">-56.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">28</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">31</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">29</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
 <td align="center" width="141"></td>
 <td align="center" width="141">55</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">60</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">-8.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">58</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">61</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">47</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; South</td>
 <td align="center" width="141"></td>
 <td align="center" width="141">274</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">300</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">8.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">244</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">233</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">195</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; West</td>
 <td align="center" width="141"></td>
 <td align="center" width="141">126</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">135</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">8.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">110</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">106</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">97</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">Median Price (NSA, $)</td>
 <td align="center" width="141"></td>
 <td align="center" width="141">296,900</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">289,100</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">13.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">283,775</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">265,092</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">242,108</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>





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Personal consumption expenditures improved 0.12% (2.9% y/y) in October, the same as September's rise which was unrevised. These were the smallest gains since January and missed expectations for a 0.3% rise in the Action Economics [...]

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Gasoline prices at the pump fell last week to $2.09 per gallon, down 9
cents from the prior week. Prices were down 25.8% y/y, but remained slightly
above the January low of $2.04. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for
the seasonal variation in pump prices. The seasonally adjusted price declined to
$2.21 per gallon. The spot market gasoline price fell to $1.29 per gallon and
roughly equaled the low set four weeks ago.
WTI crude oil costs declined to $40.82 (-45.8% y/y), roughly equaling
the late-August low of $40.73. Prices reached $107.23 in June 2014. Prices
improved yesterday to $41.75 per barrel. Brent crude oil prices fell w/w to $41.54
per barrel but recovered to $43.70 yesterday.
Natural gas prices increased last week to $2.12 per mmbtu (-51.0% y/y),
the highest level in four weeks, and rose further to $2.14 yesterday.
Gasoline demand improved 2.0% y/y last week but demand for all
petroleum products slipped 0.2% y/y. Gasoline inventories increased 4.7%
y/y and inventories of all petroleum products rose 10.0% y/y. Crude oil
production (input to refineries) increased 1.6% y/y during the last four weeks.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The
petroleum demand and inventory figures are from the Oil &amp; Gas Journal
Weekly. These data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily
figures are in DAILY and greater detail on prices, demand and production,
along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.

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 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Weekly Energy Prices</th>
 <th scope="col" >11/23/15</th>
 <th scope="col" >11/16/15</th>
 <th scope="col" >11/09/15</th>
 <th scope="col" >Y/Y%</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 <th scope="col" >2013</th>
 <th scope="col" >2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular)</td>
 <td >2.09</td>
 <td >2.18</td>
 <td >2.24</td>
 <td >-25.8</td>
 <td >2.30</td>
 <td >3.33</td>
 <td >3.30</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.,
 WSJ)</td>
 <td >40.82</td>
 <td >42.70</td>
 <td >45.98</td>
 <td >-45.8</td>
 <td >93.64</td>
 <td >97.96</td>
 <td >94.20</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, WSJ)</td>
 <td >2.12</td>
 <td >2.07</td>
 <td >2.02</td>
 <td >-51.0</td>
 <td >4.37</td>
 <td >3.73</td>
 <td >2.75</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


</body>

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Gasoline prices at the pump fell last week to $2.09 per gallon, down 9 cents from the prior week. Prices were down 25.8% y/y, but remained slightly above the January low of $2.04. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the [...]

U.S. Petroleum Prices Continue To Track Lower

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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index in November unexpectedly
fell for a second straight month. The overall index declined 8.8% to 90.4, the
lowest level since September of 2014. The consensus expectation was for a
roughly unchanged level of 99.3 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The
decline followed a 3.4% shortfall in October. (Earlier figures were revised.)
The reading of the present situation declined 5.7% (+15.4% y/y) to the lowest
level since July. Consumer expectations dropped 11.4% (-12.0% y/y), off for the
third straight month.
A lessened 24.4% of respondents perceived that the present business situation
was good, the least in three months. That was followed by fewer perceiving that
jobs were plentiful. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by the most respondents
(26.2%) since July.
The expected outlook similarly deteriorated. The decline was led by fewer
respondents believing that business conditions would get better. A lessened
number of respondents felt there would continue to be more jobs and fewer who
expected an increase in income. Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve
months dipped to 5.0%, the middle of the range during the last year.
Buying plans included a lower percentage of respondents planning to by a new
home, the least in three months. Plans to buy an existing home jumped, however,
to the highest level since early last year. Plans to buy a major appliance sales
strengthened to the greatest since July, and plans to buy an automobile also
improved, notably for a used one.
By age group, confidence amongst those under age 35 fell to the lowest level
in four months. Confidence also was depressed for middle-aged individuals.
Confidence amongst individuals over age 55 similarly eased to the lowest point
since September of last year.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database.
The total indexes appear in USECON and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
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<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>



 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Conference Board (SA,
 1985=100)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Nov</th>
 <th scope="col" >Oct</th>
 <th scope="col" >Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" >Y/Y %</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 <th scope="col" >2013</th>
 <th scope="col" >2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Consumer Confidence Index</td>
 <td>90.4</td>
 <td>99.1</td>
 <td>102.6</td>
 <td>-0.7</td>
 <td>86.9</td>
 <td>73.2</td>
 <td>67.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Present Situation</td>
 <td>108.1</td>
 <td>114.6</td>
 <td>120.3</td>
 <td>15.4</td>
 <td>87.4</td>
 <td>67.6</td>
 <td>49.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Expectations</td>
 <td>78.6</td>
 <td>88.7</td>
 <td>90.8</td>
 <td>-12.0</td>
 <td>86.6</td>
 <td>77.0</td>
 <td>78.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Consumer Confidence By Age Group</td>
 <td></td>
 <td></td>
 <td></td>
 <td></td>
 <td></td>
 <td></td>
 <td></td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Under 35 Years</td>
 <td>100.6</td>
 <td>115.0</td>
 <td>124.4</td>
 <td>-9.7</td>
 <td>106.6</td>
 <td>93.1</td>
 <td>86.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Aged 35-54 Years</td>
 <td>98.1</td>
 <td>110.1</td>
 <td>113.2</td>
 <td>5.6</td>
 <td>92.4</td>
 <td>76.8</td>
 <td>68.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Over 55 Years</td>
 <td>76.4</td>
 <td>82.3</td>
 <td>81.8</td>
 <td>-2.2</td>
 <td>73.8</td>
 <td>61.2</td>
 <td>56.7</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index in November unexpectedly fell for a second straight month. The overall index declined 8.8% to 90.4, the lowest level since September of 2014. The consensus expectation was for a roughly [...]

U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Broadly

Robert Brusca

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Germany's IFO Index advanced in November, with its all-sector index rising to 10.9 from 9.4 in October. The all-sector index sits in the 81st percentile of the measure's historic queue of data a relatively strong standing. Current conditions improved to 15.6 from 14.2 to and to a 78th percentile standing. Expectations also improved in November, rising to 6.3 from 4.7 and marking a 77 percentile standing. The IFO standings are on the firm-to-strong side in November. 

These standings are both impressive and surprising. Markit's flash PMI readings for Germany show a similar 65th percentile standing for manufacturing but coupled with a 79th percentile reading for services. In the IFO framework the service sector seems to be doing much better than that with wholesaling at the 90th percentile and retailing at the 90th percentile. 

Still, the surprise comes from the Germany economy's ability to disregard the difficulties in the pipeline. Even before the Paris attacks and the weekend shuttering of Brussels there has been a migrant problem brewing and Germany has been very divided about how to handle it. Of course, those concerns are now going to get worse. In addition there is the Volkswagen environmental scandal. German tax authorities just today announced a probe of VW related to these issues. 

With VW as the largest company by far in Germany and with a very heavy slate of fines likely hanging over its head, there have been precious few repercussions in Germany about VW's fate or its potential to adversely impact the German economy. Are Germans stoic or in denial?

Germany is running out of rabbits to pull out of its hat. When global trade began slowing in this cycle Germany was unaffected because it was selling luxury cars to China. But China has slowed and conspicuous consumption has a come under scrutiny as crack downs against corruption have spread and gained momentum. It is impossible that Germany will be able to keep up its luxury car sales in China. Just today high-end U.S. jeweler-retailer Tiffany reported a drop in quarterly sales blaming the strong dollar for keeping tourists away from the United States and also reporting weaker sales in other markets. 

In this economy the low-end and middle segments of retailing seem to fail repeatedly to get into gear and now the high end is running into sales troubles. Germany will suffer from these trends 

Overnight a chilling geopolitical development saw NATO member Turkey shoot down a Russian war plane. Turkey said the jet had violated its air space. Turkey and Russia have been having this airspace argument for some time now. But the shoot down by Turkey is the first Russian plane downing by a NATO member since the 1950s. Russia claims there was no air-space violation and that it can prove it. The Russians have called the incident very serious. There are reports that the jet's occupants parachuted free of the plane but there is no word of their safety. 

These events mark our world. And so far the German economy and its confidence are unfazed by any of these 'noneconomic' developments. Yet there are forces in the pipeline that are sure to damage the German economy even if the Germans want to pretend that it isn't so. What this survey by the IFO tells us is that there is not yet any impact from these events that are nonetheless in train - not that there will be no impact. There is still plenty of reason to be wary about the future for German growth.

Germany has already been stung once by sanctions imposed on trade with Russia. If this new incident of a plane being shot down by NATO member Turkey elicits a response from Russia we could see Russian activity in the Baltic area heat up. Russia has not been one for the compartmentalization of its responses. Germany, a NATO member, could find itself in a more stirred up environment. Russia already has stepped up its aerial presence in the Baltic region and, in response, NATO planes have been flying a stepped up number of flights there. More intense geopolitical heat is simply another distraction to take policymakers' attention away from formulating a better growth strategy. 

 

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Germany's IFO Index advanced in November, with its all-sector index rising to 10.9 from 9.4 in October. The all-sector index sits in the 81st percentile of the measure's historic queue of data a relatively strong standing. Current [...]

Germany's IFO Improves

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: November 2015

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U.S. Personal Spending Inches Higher as Income Strengthens

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