Economy in Brief: June 2021

Italian inflation is only at 1.4% (HICP) or 1.3% (domestic index) on a year-on-year basis. Inflation in Germany already is over the top of the pace established as beyond the maximum by the ECB (2%). And while the two Italian headline [...]

• Barometer falls to lowest level in four months. • New orders & production weaken. • Delivery speeds slow while pricing power strengthens. The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer declined to 66.1 in June from 75.2 in [...]

• Rise in May more than offsets decline in April with gains in each region. • Purchases remain constrained by limited supply and rapidly rising prices. Pending home sales rebounded in May, rising 8.0% m/m (+13.1% y/y) following a 4.4% [...]

• Increase is unexpectedly strong. • Hiring is robust across business size. • Industry gains led by leisure & hospitality. Job market improvement remains solid. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that June nonfarm private [...]

• Total application volume fell to lowest level since January 2020. • Applications for both purchase and refinance declined. • Rates on fixed-rate mortgages generally edged down, rates on adjustable-rate loans jumped. The Mortgage [...]

• Gasoline prices hit nearly seven-year high. • Crude oil prices add to recent gains. • Natural gas prices unchanged. Retail gasoline prices rose to $3.09 per gallon (+42.2% y/y) in the week ended June 28, the highest price since [...]

The EU Commission indexes have been making a huge move to higher ground for the last several months. In June we are looking at the highest EU Commission index for the EMU in over 20 years. This should help to establish the case that [...]

• Confidence reaches thirteen-month high. • Improvement is logged in current conditions and expectations. • Job market indexes continue to strengthen. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index jumped 6.1% this month to 127.3 [...]