• Energy prices surge a record 10.0% m/m and a record 54.4% y/y.
• Core goods prices remain high: +0.5% m/m; +9.1% y/y.
• Services prices rise for the 17th time in 18 months.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Jul 14 2022U.S. Producer Price Inflation Accelerates to 11.3% Y/Y in June
• Exports post the weakest increase in four months while imports rise for the ninth time in 10 months.
• Goods exports up; good imports virtually unchanged.
• Petroleum imports post the smallest gain in four months; nonpetroleum imports fall for the third time in four months.
• Real goods trade deficit rises to $116.55 billion.
• Goods trade deficit w/ China narrows to a six-month low while deficits w/ Japan and EU widen.
• 55.3 in June vs. 55.9 in May, indicating economic activity in the services sector expands for the 25th straight month but at a marginally slower pace.
• Mixed movement in sub-indexes: business activity index rebounds while new orders index declines slightly and employment falls back to a contraction level.
• Prices index at 80.1, while down two pts. from May, remains at an elevated level.
USA| Jul 05 2022U.S. Factory Orders Rise More Than Expected in May
• New orders +1.6% in May vs. +0.7% in Apr., up for the eighth straight month; Apr. orders revised up.
• Shipments gain 1.8% with rises of 2.3% in nondurable goods and 1.4% in durable goods.
• Inventories rise at a faster pace while unfilled orders increase at a slower pace.
• 53.0 in June vs. 56.1 in May; the sixth m/m decline in PMI in eight months.
• New orders contract for the first time since May '20.
• Following 17 straight expansions, employment contract for the second successive month to the lowest level since Aug. '20.
• Production rises to a four-month high, indicating expansions for 25 straight months.
• Prices paid, while down slightly, continues to be at an elevated level.
USA| Jul 01 2022U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
• Total construction declines for the first time since September; Apr. and Mar. revised up. • Residential private construction rises for the 24th straight month, led by home improvement building. • Nonresidential private construction declines for the third consecutive month. • Public sector construction falls for the second successive month.
USA| Jun 30 2022U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level since Aug. '20
• 56.0 in June vs. 60.3 in May; drops in all index components except employment.
• New orders contract for the first time in two years.
• Production falls back, albeit at expansion readings for 23 straight months.
• Following six successive contractions, employment expands for the first time since November.
• Prices paid continues to be at an elevated level.
USA| Jun 27 2022Texas Manufacturing Activity and Expectations Indexes Deteriorate in June, Their Second Straight Negative Readings
• General business activity lowest since May ’20; future general business activity lowest since April ’20.
• Company outlook posts negative readings for the fourth straight month.
• Production and new orders growth lowest since May ’20; employment eases but above its series average.
• Prices received lowest since March ’21 and prices paid lowest since January '21.
• June decline led by new orders, shipments, production, and employment.
• Current and expected conditions fall for the third consecutive month.
• Inflation pressures persist w/ inflation indicators at very high levels.
USA| Jun 15 2022U.S. Import Prices Rise Less Than Expected While Export Prices Gain More Than Expected in May
- Import prices increase 0.6% with fuel prices up 7.5%.
- Excluding fuels, import prices decline 0.3%, down for the first time since Nov. '20.
- Export prices advance 2.8% with ag export prices up 2.1% and nonag export prices up 2.9%.
- NFIB Optimism Index edges down in May; its fifth straight month below the 48-year average of 98.
- Uncertainty Index decreases to the lowest level since Dec. 2013.
- Outlook for business conditions in the next six months worsens to a record low.
- Five of the 10 index components rise.
- Inflation is the most major concern.
- Affordable homes continue to be in short supply; mortgage payments jump to a record high w/ home prices at a record high.
- Mortgage interest rates increase to the highest since May 2010.
- Median family income rises to $89,985, the highest level since March 2021.
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