Tom Moeller

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The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget surplus of $176.2 billion during April compared to a surplus of $308.2 during April FY’22. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $365 billion surplus. For the first seven months of the current fiscal year, the federal government ran a budget deficit of $924.5 billion versus a deficit of $360.0 billion over the same period last year.

Overall revenues have declined 10.0% so far during FY’23 versus FY’22. Individual income tax receipts fell 17.9% y/y. Corporate tax payments increased 2.2% y/y this fiscal year. Social insurance revenues rose 8.9% y/y but excise taxes fell 4.2% y/y so far in FY’23.

Federal government outlays have risen 7.9% y/y so far in FY’23. Social Security outlays increased 10.5% y/y this fiscal year and national defense outlays grew 6.2% y/y. Interest payments surged 42.5% y/y so far in FY’23. To the downside, income security payments fell 16.1% y/y. Medicare outlays weakened 3.9% y/y, while outlays on health programs are down 3.8% y/y so far in FY’23.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Revenues decline with lower personal tax receipts.
- Outlays surge for Social Security, Defense & Interest.

U.S. Government Budget Surplus Shrinks Y/Y in April

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 89.0 during April from an unrevised 90.1 in March and 90.9 in February, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. This was the sixteenth consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Six of the index’s 10 components declined m/m, while four increased. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index fell to 72 in April but remained up from a low of 55 in June of last year.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained bleak in April. The net balance expecting the economy to improve fell to -49%, a four-month low. The net balance expecting higher real sales in six months weakened to -19, the least since last August. The percent planning to make capital outlays was 19%, below its October 2021 high of 31%. The percent reporting that inventories were too low fell, along with the percent planning to add to inventories. The earnings trends reading weakened and reversed its March rise.   

The percent of firms expecting to raise employment levels improved to 17% and reversed its March drop, but remained low. The percent of firms with positions unable to be filled right now rose modestly to 45%, as did those reporting that now was a good time to expand the business. Expected credit conditions improved slightly.

Inflation pressures weakened in April. The net balance of firms increasing their average selling prices fell to 33%, down from 63% twelve months earlier. The net balance planning to increase selling prices in the next three months declined to 21%, less than half the percentage twelve months earlier. Inflation was viewed as the single most important problem by 23% of respondents, down from a high of 37% in July of last year.

The labor market tightened for small businesses. An increased 55% of respondents reported few or no qualified applicants for job openings, up from a low of 51% in December. Compensation pressures, however, eased. A lessened net 40% of respondents increased compensation over the last three months, down from a high of 50% in January of 2022, while a lessened net 22% expect to raise compensation in the next three months, down from 32% in October of 2021.

The quality of labor was viewed as the single most important problem by an increased 24% of respondents. Inflation was viewed as the largest problem by a reduced 23% of respondents, down from a high 37% nine months earlier. The cost of labor was viewed as the largest problem by a lower nine percent of respondents, while a greatly increased four percent had financial & interest rate concerns, up from one percent 12 months earlier.  

Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S., and they create 80% of all new jobs. The typical NFIB member employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- Component changes are mixed.
- Expectations for economic improvement languish.
- Worries about labor quality & taxes persist.


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Weakens in April

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Retail gasoline prices fell to $3.53 per gallon (-18.4% y/y) last week from $3.60 during the prior week. The cost remained above the $3.09 low at the end of December but was below the mid-June 2022 peak of $5.01 per gallon. The retail price of diesel fuel declined to $3.92 per gallon (-30.3% y/y) last week from $4.02 per gallon in the previous week. It reached a recent peak of $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $71.17 per barrel (-33.3% y/y) in the week ended May 5 from $76.31 in the prior week. Prices were below the high of $81.87 three weeks ago. Yesterday, the price was $73.16 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil declined to $74.62 per barrel (-32.4% y/y) last week after falling to $81.40 per barrel in the previous week. The price peaked at $127.40 in mid-June of 2022. The price was $77.53 per barrel.

The price of natural gas weakened to $2.04/mmbtu (-74.6% y/y) in the week ended May 5. Prices approximated their late-March low, previously at this level in October 2020.  Prices have fallen from their recent high of $6.78/mmbtu in the third week of December and from $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August of 2022. Yesterday, the price was $2.21/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended April 28, gasoline demand rose 1.1% from a year earlier after rising 3.9% y/y in the prior week. Demand for all petroleum products rose 1.7% y/y in the latest four weeks in contrast to the 14.4% annual growth at the end of 2021. Crude oil input to refineries rose 1.0% y/y but had been falling y/y since January.

Gasoline inventories declined 2.5% y/y in the week ended April 28 compared to a 4.2% y/y decline in the prior week, while crude oil inventories fell 14.6% y/y. Inventories of distillate fuel oil rose 5.1% y/y, and residual crude oil inventories increased 14.5% y/y.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended April 28 rose to 25.1 days from 24.4 days in the previous week. It was the highest level in five weeks. The supply of crude oil was little changed at 29.2 days, still above its low of 25.3 days at the end of June 2022.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database.

- Retail gasoline prices reverse earlier increases
- Crude oil prices continue to weaken.	
- Natural gas prices decline.

U.S. Energy Prices Decline

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Wholesale inventories were flat (+9.1% y/y) in March for the second month in a row. This was little revised from the advance report issued earlier. Inventory growth has slowed considerably since early-2022. A 0.1% rise had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey.

Durable goods inventories held steady (+13.0% y/y) in March after rising 0.5% in February. Motor vehicle & parts inventories rose 1.5% (24.0% y/y). Furniture & home furnishings inventories declined 1.4% (+2.1%), the fourth consecutive sharp monthly decline. Professional equipment inventories eased 0.1% (+1.6% y/y), down for the fourth month in the last five while electrical equipment inventories weakened 0.9% (+16.6% y/y). Machinery inventories gained 1.1% (27.7% y/y).

In the nondurable goods sector, inventories declined 0.2% (+3.5% y/y) in March, the fourth consecutive monthly drop. Petroleum & petroleum product inventories fell 3.6% (-5.0% y/y), also the fourth straight monthly drop. Chemical inventories fell 0.5% (+1.4% y/y), the seventh consecutive monthly decline. Apparel inventories fell 0.4% (+17.9% y/y) and grocery product inventories fell 0.3% (+4.0% y/y).

Wholesale sales declined 2.1% (-2.9% y/y) in March after rising 0.4% in February. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.4% monthly gain.

Durable goods sales fell 2.3% (-2.9% y/y) after rising 1.5% in February. Motor vehicle & parts sales weakened 0.9% (+9.3% y/y). Sales of machinery were off 2.7% (+12.5% y/y) while electrical machinery sales fell 3.8% (-2.1% y/y). Professional equipment sales eased 0.6% (-7.8% y/y) and furniture & home furnishings sales edged 0.1% higher (-0.9% y/y). Metals & mineral sales declined 1.5% (-14.1% y/y).

Sales of nondurable goods tumbled 1.9% (-3.0% y/y) in March, adding to a 0.6% February shortfall. A 4.2% drop (-18.4% y/y) in petroleum sales, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, was accompanied by a 0.4% easing (-5.7% y/y) in chemical product sales. Apparel sales fell 0.7% (-9.4% y/y) and paper product sales declined 3.1% (-4.0% y/y). Grocery product sales fell 0.9% (+4.9% y/y).

The wholesale inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio jumped to 1.40 in March from 1.37 in February and was the highest ratio since June 2020. The I/S ratio in the durable goods sector rose to 1.83 and compared to a low of 1.47 in June 2021. The I/S ratio for nondurable goods edged higher to 1.03 and was the highest since November 2020. 

The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the **MMSAMER** database. Expectations for sales are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Durable goods inventories hold steady, while nondurables ease.
- Sales move broadly lower.
- Inventory-to-sales ratio climbs to three-year high.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Are Little Changed in March

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 253,000 last month (2.6% y/y) after rising 165,000 in March and 248,000 in February, revised from 236,000 and 326,000, respectively. Expectations had been for a 180,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Average hourly earnings gained 0.5% in April following three months of 0.3% increase. A 0.3% April rise had been expected. The y/y earnings increase edged up to 4.4% from 4.3%, but remained down from a high of 5.9% y/y in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the **household survey**, fell to 3.4% in April from 3.5% in March. Expectations had been for 3.6%. Household employment rose 139,000 after rising 577,000 in March. The labor force fell 43,000 following a 480,00 increase. The overall unemployment rate, including workers who were marginally attached & working part-time for economic reasons, slipped to 6.6% and has been trending sideways for seven months.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment rose 230,000 in April (2.6% y/y) after a 123,000 March increase. Factory sector jobs improved 11,000 (1.7% y/y) after falling 8,000 during March. Construction sector employment rose 15,000 (2.7% y/y) after falling 11,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 197,000 in April (2.7% y/y) after improving 140,000 in March. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Education & health care jobs rose 77,000 (4.2	% y/y). Leisure & hospitality employment rose 31,000 (5.6% y/y). Financial employment surged 23,000 (0.9% y/y). Professional & business services employment rose 43,000 (2.1% y/y) including a 23,300 decline (-4.9 y/y) in temporary help employment. Trade, transportation & utilities hiring improved 17,000 (1.0% y/y). Information sector hiring rose 1,000 (1.2% y/y).

Government sector payrolls rose 23,000 last month (2.2% y/y) after increasing 42,000 in March. Local government jobs increased 17,000 (2.2% y/y). State government employment improved 3,000 (2.6% y/y) and federal government payrolls rose 3,000 (1.4% y/y) in April.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.5% in April, the largest increase in nine months. Earnings in the goods-producing sector improved 0.5% (4.6% y/y). Earnings in construction rose 0.5% (5.4% y/y), while factory sector earnings strengthened 0.4% (3.9% y/y). In the private services sector, earnings rose 0.5%, once again the strongest in nine months. The y/y increase of 4.4% is greatly reduced from 6.1% in March 2022. Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay increased 0.7% (5.1% y/y) last month. Professional & business sector earnings increased 0.6% (4.4% y/y). Education and health services pay increased 0.4% (4.0%) in April. The 0.3% rise (5.7% y/y) in leisure & hospitality earnings left the y/y gain below the 14.0% December 2021 peak. Information sector pay fell 0.9% (+4.0% y/y) in April and financial activities earnings fell 0.2% (+3.7% y/y).

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The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.4 hours in April, down from a peak of 35.0 hours in January 2021. The workweek in the goods-producing sector remained at 39.9 hours. The construction sector average workweek also remained steady at 38.9 hours, while the factory sector workweek fell to 40.2, down from a recent high of 40.7 hours in March 2022. The average workweek in the private service sector edged up to 33.4 hours from 33.3 hours, but remained below the 34.0 hour high in early 2021. Professional & business service hours jumped to 36.7 hours from 36.3 hours but leisure & hospitality hours remained steady at a relatively low 25.4 hours.

The aggregate weekly hours index, a key indicator of production and income, increased 0.2% (2.1% y/y) in April, following declines in the previous two months.

The **household survey** indicated a slip in the jobless rate to 3.4% in April and was accompanied by a steady 62.6% labor force participation rate. The rate for teenagers dropped to 37.1% from 37.4%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate tumbled to 70.9% from 72.0%, the lowest level in five months. For workers aged 25-54, the rate rose to 83.3%, the highest level since March 2008. For individuals 55 and over, the rate fell to 38.4% in April, remaining well below its 40.5% in July 2019.

The employment/population ratio for all workers in April remained at 60.4%. It remains below its reading of 61.1% in February 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The average duration of unemployment rose sharply in April to 20.9 weeks from 19.5 weeks in the prior month, but it remained below a 32.0 week high in June of 2021. The median duration of unemployment rose to 8.4 weeks from 8.1 weeks, but remained below its 19.9 week high in June 2021.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Payroll gain in April follows shaved estimates in prior two months.
- Earnings growth accelerates.
- Jobless rate falls and remains near 50-year low.


U.S. Jobs Growth & Earnings Improve in April; Unemployment Rate Falls

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) narrowed to $64.2 billion in March from $70.6 billion in February, revised from $70.5. A $63.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports rose 2.1% (5.0% y/y) in March following a 2.8% decline, revised from 2.7%. Imports eased 0.3% (-8.6% y/y) after a 1.6% drop in February, revised from -1.5%.

The narrowing in the goods and services deficit in March was due entirely to a lessened goods trade deficit of $86.6 billion compared to a $93.0 billion deficit in February. Goods exports rose 3.1% (2.6% y/y) after a 4.8% decline. Imports of goods eased 0.5% (-11.8% y/y following a 2.2% decline. The services trade surplus held steady at $22.4 billion. Exports of services edged 0.1% higher (10.6% y/y) following a 1.8% gain. Imports of services rose 0.2% (9.0% y/y) in March after rising 1.1% in February.

The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade deficit narrowed to $99.4 billion (chained 2012 dollars) from $104.0 billion in February. Real exports rose 3.5% (7.6% y/y) while real imports edged 0.3% higher (-8.6% y/y).

The Customs value goods trade deficit narrowed to $85.5 billion in March after widening to $92.0 billion in February. Exports rose 3.0% (2.7% y/y) following a 3.9% decline. Exports of food, feeds & beverages fell 3.7% (-6.1% y/y. Offsetting the decline were increases everywhere else. Auto exports rose 4.8% (11.8% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods exports improved 1.4% (9.9% y/y). Capital goods exports edged 0.4% higher (6.6% y/y) while exports of industrial supplies and materials jumped 6.3% (-3.5% y/y). Customs value imports eased 0.5% (-11.9% y/y) in March following a 2.3% February drop. The decline was led by a 3.7% rise (-19.6% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods and a 2.4% decline (-23.9% y/y) in industrial supplies. Auto imports eased 0.4% (+8.8% y/y). Imports of foods and feeds rose 0.9% (-3.9% y/y). Petroleum imports fell 6.9% (+1.0% y/y) in March while nonpetroleum imports rose 1.0% (-9.5% y/y).

The 0.1% increase (10.6% y/y) in services exports reflected a 1.6% increase (48.3% y/y) in travel exports and a 0.5% increase (7.9% y/y) in financial services. Recreational services exports rose 0.5% (-2.4% y/y). Services imports improved as travel imports strengthened 6.2% (59.0% y/y), but transport services fell 5.0% (-6.4% y/y).

The goods trade deficit with China eased to a seasonally adjusted $22.9 billion in March from $25.2 billion in February. Exports rose 10.2% (6.0% y/y) while imports fell 2.4% (-34.6% y/y). The goods trade deficit with the European Union narrowed to $15.6 billion in March from $18.1 billion in February. The trade shortfall with Japan was little changed at $5.9 billion.

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Deficit is lowest in four months.
- Exports strengthen while imports ease.
- Goods trade deficit shrinks; services surplus steadies.

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows in March

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Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 242,000 (11.0% y/y) during the week ended April 29 and reversed the prior week’s decline to 229,000, revised from 230,000. Expectations were for 240,000 initial claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of initial claims of 239,000 compared to a late-January low of 200,000.

The number of continuing weeks claimed in the week ended April 22 fell to 1.805 million (20.5% y/y) from 1.843 during the prior week, revised from 1.858 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims eased to 1.828 million from 1.833 million, though it remained up from 1.296 million late in September of last year.

In the week ended April 22, the insured rate of unemployment fell to 1.2% from an unrevised 1.3% in the prior week. These levels are increased from the 0.9% low early in October 2022, which matched the record low for the series which runs back to 1971.

In the week ended April 15, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs eased to 1.800 million (+20.4% y/y), compared to 1.815 million the week before. It was down from a high of 2.000 million late in February. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.

The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 15 were in California (2.44%), New Jersey (2.43%), Rhode Island (2.12%), Massachusetts (1.95%) and Minnesota (1.82%). The lowest rates were in Virginia (0.32%), Kansas (0.31%), Nebraska (0.35%), Tennessee (0.40%), Florida (0.41%), and North Carolina (0.41%). Other large state rates include New York (1.82%), Illinois (1.64%), Pennsylvania (1.34%) and Texas (0.99%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's **WEEKLY** database, and they are summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW**. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims remain higher than January.
- Continuing claims ease.
- Insured unemployment rate declines.

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise

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Nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 296,000 in April (2.5% y/y) after increasing 142,000 during March, revised from 145,000. A 150,000 April increase was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last three months, payrolls rose an average 233,000 per month, the quickest increase since October.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" of 6.7% y/y remained below a September high of 7.8% y/y. The earnings increase was led by 8.9% y/y growth in leisure & hospitality earnings, down from 16.9% y/y growth in March 2022. Financial sector earnings rose a lessened 6.7% y/y. Factory sector pay rose 6.2% y/y, down from a high of 7.8% in September 2022. Professional & business service sector earnings rose a lessened 6.3% y/y.

Small businesses hiring (1-49 employees) rose 121,000 (0.9% y/y) following a little-revised 99,000 March increase. Employment at firms with 50-499 employees rose 122,000 (4.7% y/y), the biggest increase in three months. The three-month average increase weakened to 75,000, half the February increase. Employment at large-sized firms rose 47,000 (1.9% y/y) last month, the strongest increase in three months.

By industry group, goods-producing employment rose 67,000 (1.6% y/y) after a 66,000 March gain. Factory sector jobs declined 38,000 (+0.8% y/y) after falling 32,000 in March. Construction employment strengthened 53,000 (2.1% y/y), about the same as in the prior two months. Hiring in the natural resource & mining sector surged 52,000 (5.8% y/y) following a 45,000 March increase.

Service-producing jobs rose 229,000 last month (2.7% y/y), three times higher than in March and the biggest gain since December. Leisure & hospitality employment jumped 154,000 (8.8% y/y) after rising 97,000 in March. Trade, transportation & utilities payrolls rose 32,000 (1.1% y/y) in April following a 56,000 increase. Education & health care sector employment improved 69,000 (2.7% y/y) after rising 18,000 in March. Information sector jobs rose 2,000 (0.0% y/y) after falling in each of the previous three months. Professional & business services employment declined 16,000 (1.7% y/y) after a 46,000 decline in March. Financial activities employment fell 28,000 (-0.6% y/y), down for the fifth straight month.

By Census region, employment in the Northeast improved 159,000 (5.2% y/y) following a 140,000 March gain. Employment in the West increased 109,000 (2.9% y/y) in April, following a 94,000 March increase. Jobs in the Midwest rose 118,000 (2.5% y/y) after rising 131,000. In the South, the number of jobs declined 100,000 (+0.9% y/y) after a 228,000 shortfall.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Private payrolls double March gain.
- Job strength includes leisure, education & health services industries.
- Pay increases continue to moderate.

ADP Employment Strengthens but Earnings Slow in April

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The Autodata Corporation reported that light vehicle sales during April strengthened 7.7% (11.2% y/y) to 16.15 million units (SAAR) after easing 0.3% to 14.99 million in March. Last month’s strength powered sales to the highest level since May 2021. They remained below the April 2021 peak of 18.37 million. Sales have improved from the September 2021 low of 12.38 million. Vehicle sales comprise about four percent of real consumer expenditures.

Auto sales led last month’s upturn and rose 9.2% (6.4% y/y) to 3.33 million units after rising 1.0% during March. Purchases of domestically-made autos improved 11.4% both m/m and y/y to 2.45 million units after rising 5.8% in March to 2.20 million. Sales of imported autos increased 4.8% (-5.4% y/y) to 0.88 million units after weakening 10.6% to 0.84 million units in March.

Also strong were sales of light trucks which rose 7.2% last month (12.5% y/y) to 12.81 million units after easing 0.6% in March to 11.95 million units. Purchases of imported light trucks were strongest and rose 11.0% (10.1% y/y) to 2.83 million after falling 0.8% in March to 2.55 million units. Sales of domestically-produced light trucks improved 6.2% (13.2% y/y) to 9.98 million after easing 0.5% to 9.40 million in March.

Trucks' share of the light vehicle market eased to 79.3% in April from 79.7% in March, but remained near the record high.

Imports' total share of the U.S. vehicle market improved to 23.0% last month after falling to 22.6% in March. It remained nearly the lowest share since November 2021 and stood below a high of 28.0% in September 2021. Imports' share of the passenger car market fell to 26.4% last month from 27.5% in March. It was the lowest share since March 2020. Imports' share of the light truck market rose to 22.1% in April from 21.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.


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- Sales rise to roughly two-year high.
- Light truck & auto sales strengthen.
- Imported vehicle sales rise moderately.


U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Surge During April

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The number of job openings dropped 3.9% during March to 9.590 million from 9.974 million in February, revised from 9.931 million. Falling for three consecutive months, the latest level was the lowest level since April 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings & Labor Turnover report. These declines left openings 20.3% below the March 2022 high of 12.027 million. The job openings rate (job openings as a percentage of the sum of establishment employment plus openings) fell to 5.8% from 6.0% in February. The series high was 7.4% in March 2022.

Within sectors, the job openings rate in construction fell to 4.1% in March from 4.9% during February. The rate eased to 5.1% from 5.2% in manufacturing and to 4.8% from 5.5% in trade, transportation & utilities. The rate in professional services weakened to 7.0% from 7.5%. In the education & health sector, the job openings rate fell to 6.8% from 7.0%, but in the leisure & hospitality sector the job openings rate rose to 8.3%.

New hires were little changed m/m (-6.5% y/y) at 6.149 million in March. That followed a 2.8% decline in February and a 1.2% January increase. It left the level of new hires 10.1% below the November 2021 high of 6.843 million.

The hiring rate held steady at 4.0% during March. It reached a peak of 4.6% in November 2021. The hiring rate in leisure & hospitality fell to 6.7% from 7.2% but in the professional & business sector, it rose to 5.2% from 4.9%. In retail trade, the hiring rate eased to 4.5% from 4.7% while in construction, it improved to 5.1% from 4.7%. The hiring rate in education & health services edged higher to 3.5% from 3.4%. In the factory sector, the hiring rate weakened to 3.0% from 3.2% in February.

The total number of job separations rose 1.6% (-4.2% y/y) during March to 5.932 million from 5.841 million in February. The jobs separations rate held a 3.8%. Layoffs and discharges, involuntary separations, rose 15.9% (29.4% y/y) to 1.805 from 1.557 million. The layoff & discharge rate rose to 1.2% from 1.0%.

The number of jobs quit declined 3.2% (-13.5% y/y) to 3.851 million. Quits in the financial sector rose 15.9% (-23.9% y/y) while in retail trade quits eased 0.2% (-12.6% y/y). Factory sector quits fell 1.1% (19.2% y/y) but in the leisure & hospitality sector they fell 20.2% (-18.4% y/y). The quit rate eased to 2.5% and remained below the April 2022 high of 3.0%.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) are available in Haver's **USECON** database.

- Openings level is lowest in nearly two years.
- Declines are widespread.
- Hiring declines are mixed amongst industries.
- Layoffs & discharges surge.


JOLTS: Job Openings Continue to Fall in March

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Retail gasoline prices fell to $3.60 per gallon (-13.9% y/y) last week from $3.66 during the prior week. The cost remained above the $3.09 low at the end of December but was below the mid-June 2022 peak of $5.01 per gallon. The retail price of diesel fuel declined to $4.02 per gallon (-27.1% y/y) last week from $4.08 per gallon in the previous week. It reached a recent peak of $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $76.31 per barrel (-25.8% y/y) in the week ended April 28 from $79.22 in the prior week. Prices remained above the low of $74.29 in the first week of January. Yesterday, the price was $75.66 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil declined to $81.40 per barrel (-21.7% y/y) last week after easing to $84.62 per barrel in the previous week. The price peaked at $127.40 in mid-June of 2022.

The price of natural gas was unchanged at $2.21/mmbtu (-67.5% y/y) in the week ended April 28. Prices have fallen from their recent high of $6.78/mmbtu in the third week of December and from $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August of 2022. Yesterday, the price was $2.21/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended April 21, gasoline demand rose 3.9% from a year earlier after rising 3.6% y/y in the prior week. Demand for all petroleum products rose 2.2% y/y in the latest four weeks in contrast to the 14.4% annual growth at the end of 2021. Crude oil input to refineries held steady y/y but has been falling since January.

Gasoline inventories declined 4.2% y/y in the week ended April 21 compared to a 3.8% y/y decline in the prior week, while crude oil inventories fell 14.4% y/y. Inventories of distillate fuel oil rose 3.9% y/y, but residual crude oil inventories increased 15.6% y/y.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended April 21 fell to 24.4 days from 24.9 days in the previous week. It was the lowest level since late-November. The supply of crude oil fell to 29.3 days from 29.7, still above its low of 25.3 days at the end of June 2022.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database.

- Retail gasoline prices weaken.
- Crude oil prices decline to four-week low.
- Natural gas prices steady.

U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Decline

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The U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose to 47.1 during April from 46.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The index failed to recover all of the March decline. It stood below the break-even level of 50 for the sixth straight month and it remained under the peak of 63.8 in March 2021. The figure remained at the lowest level since May 2020. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 46.5 in April.

Movement amongst the component series was mixed last month. The employment index rose to 50.2 from 46.9, placing it at the highest level since January. The figure recently peaked at 56.9 in March 2021. An increased 17.9% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment and a lessened 15.6% reported decline.

The new orders index improved to 45.7 in April from 44.3, but remained below 53.8 twelve months earlier. It was the eighth consecutive month below the break-even level of 50. An increased 25.2% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders last month while an increased 26.6% reported a decline. The production index rose to 48.9 from 47.8 in March. It stood at 54.4 in April of last year. An increased 24.4% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production levels while a fairly steady 19.6% reported lower output.

Working lower, the inventories series fell to 46.3 from 47.5. It has collapsed from 57.0 in November of 2021. Just 15.1% of respondents added to inventories while 22.5% lowered inventory levels. The supplier deliveries index slipped to 44.6 from 44.8. It represented the quickest pace of product delivery since March 2009.

The prices index improved to 53.2 (NSA) in April from 49.2 in March. It stood well below its high of 92.1 in June of 2021, though it remained above the December 2022 low of 39.4. An increased 26.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while a lessened 20.0% reported price declines.

In other ISM series, the new export orders index rose to 49.8 in April from 47.6 in March. It remained down from the recent high of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index rose to 49.9 and recovered its decline from 47.9 in March. It nevertheless was below the high of 61.0 in June 2021. The order backlog index slipped to 43.	1 from 43.9, below the break-even level of 50 for the seventh consecutive month.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 manufacturing purchasing executives from 20 industries, which correspond to their contribution to GDP in 50 states. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Index recovers a bit after hitting three-year low.
- Employment, new orders & production improve.
- Pricing power hits nine-month high.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Improves in April

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