- July & June payroll readings are revised significantly lower.
- Earnings growth is weakest in 18 months.
- Jobless rate jumps; labor force growth surges but job growth is moderate.
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
USA| Sep 01 2023U.S. Payroll Growth in August Bests July’s, but Earnings Growth Is Negligible and Unemployment Rate Jumps
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Sep 01 2023U.S. Construction Spending Firms in July
- Residential building strengthens for third straight month.
- Nonresidential building edges higher.
- Public sector building declines.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 31 2023U.S. Personal Spending Growth Accelerates, but Income Gain Remains Weak; Inflation Steadies
- Real spending rise is strongest since January.
- Wage & salary growth weakens.
- Growth in price index remains low.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 30 2023ADP Employment Advance Pulls Back Sharply in August
- Disappointing employment gain is nearly half of July’s.
- Service-sector hiring slowdown is led by leisure & hospitality.
- Pay increases decelerate broadly.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 30 2023U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise Modestly in July
- Two consecutive gains follow three monthly declines.
- Changes are mixed amongst regions.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 29 2023U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines Sharply in August
- Present situation & expectations indexes fall.
- Inflation expectations edge higher.
- Employment expectations stabilize.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 29 2023U.S. Energy Prices Fall
- Gasoline prices decline sharply.
- Crude oil prices slip.
- Natural gas prices weaken.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 28 2023Texas Manufacturing Activity Index Is Less Negative but Expectations Slide in August
- General business activity index is highest in five months.
- New orders improve but production & employment weaken.
- Pricing pressure little changed, but wages strengthen.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 25 2023Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Is Unchanged in August
- Total index moves up to neutral, after four months below zero.
- Finished goods prices measure remains negative.
- Expectations for future activity improve modestly.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Aircraft orders produce volatility.
- Shipments are unchanged for second straight month.
- Order backlogs increase but inventories are little-changed.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 24 2023Chicago Fed National Activity Index Increases During July
- Two of four components are positive.
- Production improves sharply.
- Three-month average of total remains negative.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 23 2023U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Increase in July
- Sales are highest since February of last year.
- Regional sales patterns remain mixed.
- Median sales price increases to four-month high.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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