Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

USA| Jun 16 2022
U.S. Housing Starts Fall Sharply in May
Starts level is lowest since April 2021.

Both single- & multi-family weaken.

Building permits fall to eight-month low.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 15 2022
U.S. Retail Sales Dip Unexpectedly in May
Auto sales fall sharply.

Gain in nonauto spending fueled by gasoline and food.

Spending elsewhere is modest.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 15 2022
U.S. Home Builder Index Declines Further in June
Builder confidence falls for sixth consecutive month.

Potential buyers' traffic falls sharply.

Regional weakness is widespread.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 15 2022
FOMC Increases Funds Rate, Raises Inflation & Lowers GDP Projections
At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed announced a 75 basis point increase in the target for the Federal funds rate to 1.50% - 1.75%. It placed the rate at the highest level since March 2020. The move was greater-than-expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey due to recent, strong inflation readings.

Fed Chairman Powell indicated that "today's 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one, and I do not expect moves of this size to be common..."

The statement accompanying today's action indicated that "Overall economic activity appears to have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures."

In addition, the Fed will continue reducing its portfolio of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.

Today's action was endorsed by all but one member of the FOMC, who voted for a 50 basis point increase.

The statement issued following today's meeting can be found here.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 14 2022
U.S. Producer Price Inflation Picks Up in May
Energy prices continue to strengthen.

Core goods prices remain strong.

Services prices improve after an April decline.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 14 2022
U.S. Energy Prices Strengthen; Gasoline Pump Price Surges
Gasoline prices rise to record high.

Crude oil prices continue to increase.

Natural gas prices rebound.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 13 2022
U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Shrinks in May
Outlays & spending decline y/y.

Income security outlays fall sharply.

Interest payments surge.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Jun 10 2022
U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Accelerates in May
Energy & food prices surge.

Core price gain remains strong.

Core goods prices & services prices both strengthen.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 07 2022
U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows in April from Record
Exports strengthen but imports decline.

Petroleum imports rise with higher prices.

Export gain is broad-based.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 07 2022
U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Slows in April
Revolving credit usage weakens.

Nonrevolving credit usage eases.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 06 2022
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Remain Weak
Declines were broad-based in last four weeks.

Oil prices continue to strengthen.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jun 03 2022
U.S. Employment Growth Stays Firm in May; Earnings Growth & Jobless Rate Steady
Pattern of employment gains moderates versus 2021.

Hourly earnings growth is mixed amongst industries.

Jobless rate hovers near 50-year low.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief