With the euro rising, it is not surprising to see the EMU areas trade surplus erode. But the sharpness in the July erosion and the spurt in imports is good news that makes that erosion look more like it is due to a rekindling for [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Sep 17 2007Euro Area Exports and Imports Revive as Surplus Erodes
- Global| Sep 14 2007
Italy’s IP Remains Weak, Extends Trend
Italy joins the trend of EU members with weak IP in July. The UK and Germany are already there. For Italy the weakness is broad-based. Consumer goods output remains negative. Intermediate goods output also remains negative and is [...]
- Global| Sep 14 2007
German Core Inflation Breaks Lower - is it for real?
German inflation trends are mixed but on balance softer, kinder. Inflation trends in Germany are cooling for both the core and headline in terms of their respective sequential rates of growth. The diffusion calculations at the table [...]
- Global| Sep 14 2007
EMU Headline Inflation Moves Lower as Core Moves Higher: Fiddle Dee Dee?
The table below flags higher period to period inflation with a red number. Cleary inflations acceleration is not a broad trend although the Y/Y pace for the core is up compared to last month (chart) and compared to its pace of one [...]
- Global| Sep 13 2007
Subdued Inflation in Italy
Italy shows Yr/Yr inflation trends that are under the ECBs ceiling pace, at 1.7% compared to a 2% ceiling. The HICP is contained below 2% for both the 3-month and 6-month periods. But for Italys national inflation measure inflation [...]
- Global| Sep 13 2007
France HICP Slowing but Unruly and over the ECB Ceiling Pace of 2% Over Shorter Horizons
Frances HICP is below 2% Y/Y at a 1.3% pace. It has since, in shorter periods of six months and three months, shown some upward pressure. The HICP core for August is not yet available, but it too has showed some pressure in recent [...]
- Global| Sep 12 2007
Japan’s Export and Import Growth Slow Then Rebound and Steady
Japan's current account surplus shrinks in July. The terms of trade have turned against Japan over the past year as export prices rose by just 10.2% and import prices rose by 26.3%. Exports and imports have been in a broader slowing [...]
- Global| Sep 11 2007
French Exports and Import Rebound…Imports Outpace
French import growth is persistently outstripping exports. Exports ground to a halt in July as imports rose by 0.7%. Over three months, six months and twelve months, export growth is lagging import growth. Both flows however are [...]
- Global| Sep 11 2007
UK Exports and Imports Accelerate Again – Deficit Slips
UK trade deficit widens in July as worsening trend stays in place. Trade flows in capital goods and autos are strengthening. But imports are generally holding their lead forcing the deficit deeper into red ink. Export and import flows [...]
- Global| Sep 11 2007
Japan’s Core Machinery Orders Rebound
Japan sticks with the notion that it is still growing and that orders are generally expanding, but moving more or less sideways. Recent Japan macro data have been touch-and-go. In contrast the July core machinery orders reading is [...]
- Global| Sep 10 2007
Italy’s GDP Snakes Below 2% Year-over-year
GDP slows, private consumption holds up, capital formation slows. GDP is slowing in Italys quarterly and annual framework. Private consumption has been holding up and even improving slightly, but remains at a subdued pace around the [...]
- Global| Sep 10 2007
French IP Bucks Trends with Large Gain
French industrial output is up strongly on the heels of weak numbers from Germany and the UK and with ongoing weakness in Italy. In France, industrial production jumped by 1.3% in July, boosted by autos, a sector that had been weak. [...]
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