Global| Jan 14 2016U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Move Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 284,000 (-4.9% y/y) in the week ended January 9 from an unrevised 277,000 in the previous week. Consensus expectations were for 272,000 applications in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 284,000 (-4.9% y/y) in the week ended January 9 from an unrevised 277,000 in the previous week. Consensus expectations were for 272,000 applications in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average rose to 278,750, the highest level since early July. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending January 2, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 2.263 million (-6.3% y/y) from the previous week's 2.234 million. The four-week moving average rose to 2.224 million, the highest level since late-September.
The insured rate of unemployment nudged high to 1.7% following three weeks at 1.6%.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. Near the low end of the range were Florida (0.70%), North Carolina (0.76%), Nebraska (0.89%), Virginia (0.95%), Tennessee (1.04%) and Indiana (1.05%). At the high end of the scale were Massachusetts (2.53%), Illinois (2.61%), Connecticut (2.66%), Pennsylvania (2.82%), New Jersey (2.95%), and Montana (3.18%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted and cover the week ended December 26.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Estimating the Monetary Policy Rule Perceived by Forecasters from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 01/09/16 | 01/02/16 | 12/26/15 | Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 284 | 277 | 287 | -4.9 | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,263 | 2,234 | -6.3 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.6 |
1.8 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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