Global| Jan 26 2016U.S. Energy Price Decline Continues
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Gasoline prices have weakened to the lowest level since January 2009. The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline declined last week to an average $1.86 (-9.2% y/y), down from $1.91 in the prior week, according to the U.S. [...]
Gasoline prices have weakened to the lowest level since January 2009. The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline declined last week to an average $1.86 (-9.2% y/y), down from $1.91 in the prior week, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The price compares to a 2014 high of $3.71 per gallon. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in pump prices, and the adjusted price fell to $2.14 per gallon. The spot market gasoline price fell to $1.06 per gallon (-20.9% y/y) as of last week.
WTI crude oil costs also fell as demand remained soft with increased shale oil production. Prices averaged $29.19 per barrel last week (-37.2% y/y), down from $34.64 two weeks earlier. Yesterday's price of $30.34 was up slightly from Wednesday's low of $26.55, but remained below the high of $113.93 in April 2011. Brent crude oil prices fell w/w to $29.37 per barrel and were $30.03 yesterday.
Natural gas prices declined to $2.20 last week (-25.3% y/y) and retraced the prior three weeks' improvement. Prices were $2.14 yesterday.
Gasoline demand declined 2.8% y/y last week and demand for all petroleum products fell 1.8% y/y. Gasoline inventories improved 1.7% y/y, but inventories of all petroleum products rose 9.3% y/y. Crude oil production (input to refineries) increased 3.6% y/y during the last four weeks.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The petroleum demand and inventory figures are from the Oil & Gas Journal Weekly. These data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and greater detail on prices, demand and production, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 01 /25/16 | 01/18/16 | 01/11/16 | Y/Y% | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 1.86 | 1.91 | 2.00 | -9.2 | 2.03 | 2.30 | 3.33 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl., WSJ) | 29.19 | 30.59 | 34.64 | -37.2 | 48.90 | 93.64 | 97.96 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, WSJ) | 2.20 | 2.32 | 2.38 | -25.3 | 2.62 | 4.37 | 3.73 |
U.S. FHFA Home Price Index Remains Firm
by Tom Moeller
January 26, 2016
The U.S. House Price Index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) increased 0.5% in November (5.9% y/y), the same as during October. Over the last three months, the annualized rate of change picked up to 7.5%, the quickest growth since December 2014.
Prices were strongest during November in the Mountain states where a 1.8% monthly increase (10.0% y/y) was the firmest since June 2012. A 1.5% rise (8.6% y/y) in the Pacific states also was largest since late-2012. In the South Atlantic region, a 0.8% rise in prices left growth firm at 7.0% y/y.
Moderate price increases were logged in the East North Central region where prices rose 0.5% (5.0% y/y) and in New England where a 0.3% rise lifted prices 3.7% y/y. Prices gained 0.2% (4.9% y/y) in the West North Central states but they declined elsewhere in the country. House prices fell 0.4% (+5.5% y/y) in the West South Central region. They also were off 0.2% (+3.3% y/y) in the East South Central states and ticked 0.1% lower (+2.6% y/y) in the Middle Atlantic states.
The FHFA house price index is a weighted repeat sales index. It measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index also includes refinancings on the same kinds of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. The FHFA data are available in Haver's USECON database.
|
|
U.S. Consumer Confidence Strengthens
by Tom Moeller January 26 2016
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index during January rose 1.9% to 98.1 following a 4.0% rise in December to 96.3, revised from 96.5. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 96.1, according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey. An improved expectations reading led last month's increase with a 3.5% rise, down 11.4% y/y. The present situations figure was unchanged m/m (2.2% y/y) following a 5.0% December gain.
The share of consumers believing business conditions are good held fairly steady at 27.2%, and the share believing conditions are bad eased to 18.5%. The assessment of the job market deteriorated slightly as the number believing that jobs are plentiful fell to 22.4% but remained in the range of the last six months. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a lessened 23.4%, down from the 2011 high of 49.4%.
Expectations that business conditions would get better nudged up to 16.2% of respondents while 10.3% expected a worsening. More jobs were expected by a still low 13.2%, while 16.5% expected fewer jobs. Income was expected to increase by 18.1%; 10.8% expected less.
The inflation rate was projected to fall to 4.8%, the lowest figure since early-2007. Interest rates were expected to rise by a sharply increased 72.4% of respondents, up from 56.6% one year ago.
A sharply higher 6.6% of respondents planned to buy a home within six months, up from 4.4% in August. Major appliance buying was scheduled by 52.4% of respondents, the highest level since July 2010.
Consumer confidence by age group improved to the highest level since August for those aged 55 and older. For those under aged 35 it rose to the highest level since September. Confidence amongst individuals aged 35-54 eased m/m and remained down sharply from the September high.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 98.1 | 96.3 | 92.6 | -5.5 | 98.0 | 86.9 | 73.2 |
| Present Situation | 116.4 | 116.4 | 110.9 | 2.2 | 111.6 | 87.4 | 67.6 |
| Expectations | 85.9 | 83.0 | 80.4 | -11.4 | 88.9 | 86.6 | 77.0 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 123.8 | 120.6 | 106.1 | -1.7 | 116.5 | 106.6 | 93.1 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 100.3 | 100.6 | 98.5 | -3.2 | 103.8 | 92.4 | 76.8 |
| Over 55 Years | 84.0 | 79.8 | 78.5 | -7.8 | 84.0 | 73.8 | 61.2 |
Philadelphia Fed Survey; Nonmanufacturing Business Conditions Deteriorate
by Tom Moeller January 26, 2016
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity at the company level fell to 25.5 in December, the lowest level since August. The reading was well below the year-ago level of 47.5, and the full-year number of 31.5 was down from 39.1 in 2014. These diffusion indexes are not seasonally adjusted.
A lower inventory figure of 0.0 provided the largest drag on December activity. A shorter workweek and fewer capital expenditures also weighed on business.
Offsetting much of this reduction was improvement in new and unfilled orders Revenues and full-time permanent employment also improved along with pricing power.
Expected general activity at the company level in the region rose following declines in the prior two months. Overall expected activity deteriorated, however, to the lowest level since June 2013.
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index, NSA) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'15 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Activity - Company | 15.9 | 25.5 | 26.3 | 8.8 | 31.5 | 39.1 | 30.0 |
| New Orders | 9.1 | 19.6 | 15.8 | 14.7 | 21.7 | 28.0 | 20.2 |
| Sales or Revenue | 4.5 | 25.5 | 22.8 | 8.8 | 23.7 | 30.4 | 27.2 |
| Inventories | -2.3 | 0.0 | 5.3 | -2.3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.0 |
| Number of Full-Time Permanent Employees | 11.4 | 17.6 | 10.5 | 17.6 | 15.6 | 17.4 | 19.0 |
| Prices Paid | 21.6 | 19.3 | 5.0 | 19.3 | 19.7 | 20.6 | |
| Expected General Activity - Company | 52.9 | 50.9 | 70.0 | 54.3 | 69.4 | 47.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
