U.S. Crude Oil Prices Increase While Gasoline & Natural Gas Costs Decline

 

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil at $26.08 per barrel yesterday improved versus an average $21.72 last week. The price was roughly two-thirds lower y/y. The price of Brent crude oil rose to $33.08 per barrel yesterday from an average of $28.36 last week. The price has fallen from a $67.38 high averaged in the last week of December.

Retail gasoline prices declined to $1.92 per gallon (-29.9% y/y) in the week ended April 6 from $2.00 per gallon in the previous week. Prices remained below their May 2019 peak of $2.90 per gallon. Haver Analytics adjusts the gasoline price series for regular seasonal variation. The seasonally adjusted price fell to $1.89 per gallon from $1.99.

The average price of natural gas fell to $1.62/mmbtu (-40.0% y/y) last week from $1.73 and was $1.64/mmbtu yesterday. It remained below the peak of $2.81/mmbtu early in November.

In the four weeks ending March 27, gasoline demand declined 5.9% y/y, while total petroleum product demand weakened 2.2% y/y. Gasoline inventories rose 4.2% y/y and inventories of all petroleum products increased 2.3% y/y. Crude oil input to refineries declined 1.5% y/y in the past four weeks.

These data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.

Weekly Energy Prices	04/06/20	03/30/20	03/23/20	Y/Y %	2019	2018	2017
Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon Regular, Monday Price, End of Period)	1.92	2.00	2.12	-29.9	2.57	2.27	2.47
Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl, Previous Week's Average)	21.72	20.62	24.20	-65.2	56.91	64.95	50.87
Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, Previous Week's Average)	1.62	1.73	1.79	-40.0	2.57	3.18	2.99

 

U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Ease Ahead of Coronavirus
by Tom Moeller    April 7, 2020

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total the job openings rate slipped to 4.3% during February from 4.4% in January. The rate is openings as a percent of total employment plus openings. These figures remained below the 4.8% record reached in January 2019. The hiring rate held steady at 3.9% in February and remained near its expansion high of 4.0% reached last July. The layoff and discharge rate rose to 1.2% in February, up from 1.1% which equaled the lowest point on record. The quit rate was unchanged at 2.3% and remained slightly below the highest rate of the expansion.

On the last business day of February, the job openings level totaled 6.882 million, down 2.4% y/y. Total private job openings fell 2.1% m/m (-3.8% y/y) but edged 0.1% higher (11.1% y/y) for government. Job openings fell 9.1% y/y in manufacturing but rose 3.7% y/y in health & human services. The number of job openings fell 7.4% y/y in leisure & hospitality and declined 9.0% y/y in professional & business services.

The private-sector job openings rate declined to 4.3% from a downwardly revised 4.4% in January. The record rate is 5.1% reached in January 2019. The construction sector's job openings rate of 3.5% compared to 5.4% at its peak in April of last year. The rate in manufacturing was 3.2%. The rate in leisure & hospitality held at 5.2% and was steady at 5.6% in professional & business services. The government sector job openings rate was unchanged at a record 3.3%.

In February, the level of hiring rose 3.4% y/y to 5.896 million with the hiring rate steady at 3.9%. Private sector hiring rose 3.2% y/y while government hiring jumped 6.4% y/y. Hiring in construction rose 14.6% y/y, but was unchanged y/y in the factory sector. Leisure & hospitality hiring rose 1.9% y/y but it fell 7.6% y/y in professional & business services.

The total separations rate declined to a two-year low of 3.6% as the level of separations declined 2.0% y/y. The separations rate in the private sector fell to 4.0% and was 1.5% in government. The rate was 6.1% in leisure & hospitality, the lowest since December 2017. Professional & business realized a 4.8% rate, the lowest since December 2014. In education & health services the rate was 2.8%.

The layoff & discharge rate in the private sector rose to 1.3% while it was stable at 0.4% in government. The rate of 2.7% in construction compared to 0.9% in manufacturing. The 1.0% rate in the information sector was near the 0.6% rate in finance. The professional & business services layoff & discharge rate fell to 1.6%, the lowest since April 2018.

The quits rate held steady at an elevated 2.3%. The private sector quits rate of 2.5% compared to 0.8% in government. The level of job quits in the private sector fell 1.5% y/y but rose 3.8% y/y in government. In manufacturing, the level of job quits declined 7.7% y/y but it rose by one-quarter y/y in finance. The number of quits in professional & business services declined 2.2% y/y and fell 9.7% y/y in leisure & hospitality.     

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000; the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.

News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19 from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2020-08.pdf 

JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA)	Feb	Jan	Dec	Feb'19	Feb'18	Feb'17
Job Openings, Total
Rate (%)	4.3	4.4	4.1	4.5	4.3	3.9
Total (000s)	6,882	6,963	6,552	7,048	6,575	5,872
Hires, Total .
Rate (%)	3.9	3.9	3.9	3.8	3.8	3.7
Total (000s)	5,896	5,925	5,927	5,703	5,669	5,366
Layoffs & Discharges, Total
Rate (%)	1.2	1.1	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2
Total (000s)	1,755	1,741	1,893	1,791	1,781	1,698
Quits, Total
Rate (%)	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.4	2.1	2.1
Total (000s)	3,497	3,574	3,528	3,541	3,175	3,081

 

U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Ramps Up in February
by Tom Moeller  April 7, 2020

Consumer credit outstanding increased $22.3 billion (4.5% y/y) during February following an unrevised $12.0 billion January gain. It was the strongest monthly increase since July. A $14.0 billion gain had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Nonrevolving credit usage surged $18.1 billion (4.9% y/y) during February, the strongest monthly increase since September 2015. Borrowing from the federal government, which issues over 40% of nonrevolving credit, grew 6.8% y/y. Depository institution loans (25% of credit) gained 5.0% y/y. Finance company borrowing (13.0% of loans) grew 1.1% y/y and credit union borrowing (7.0% of loans) rose 2.9% y/y.

Revolving consumer credit balances rose $4.2 billion (3.2% y/y) in February after falling $2.5 billion in January. Credit provided by depository institutions, which makes up 90% of revolving balances, grew 3.4% y/y. Credit union borrowing rose 6.1% y/y and finance company loans fell 3.3% y/y.

Student loans grew a reduced 4.7% y/y while motor vehicle loans rose a steady 3.8% y/y.

These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of the Census and Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology.

The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.

Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA)	Feb	Jan	Dec	Feb % y/y	2019	2018	2017
Total ($ bil)	22.3	12.0	21.0	4.5	4.5	4.8	5.0
Nonrevolving	18.1	14.5	9.6	4.9	4.8	5.4	4.9
Revolving	4.2	-2.5	11.4	3.2	3.8	3.1	5.6