Global| Mar 26 2009U.S. Continuing Claims for Unemployment Insurance Reach Another Record High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Labor market stress continues. Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to yet another record high of 5,560,000 and remained nearly double that of last March. The series dates back to 1966. The four-week average of continuing [...]
Labor market stress continues. Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to yet another record high of 5,560,000 and remained nearly double that of last March. The series dates back to 1966. The four-week average of continuing claims also rose to another record of 5,331,250. Continuing claims provide some indication of workers' ability to find employment and they lag the initial claims figures by one week.
At the margin, there appears to be no let-up in the bleak employment picture. Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 652,000 which was near the series' recent high. At 652,000 the figure was close to its highest since 1982 and it roughly equaled expectations.
The Labor Department indicated that the largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 14 were in Tennessee (+1,394), Texas (+1,028), Rhode Island (+904), North Dakota (+857), and Connecticut (+522), while the largest decreases were in California (-8,555), Michigan (-7,523), Indiana (-7,475), Pennsylvania (-3,757), and Ohio (-3,397).
Though the latest level of continuing claims was a record, the labor force has grown as well, by nearly 30% over the last twenty years. Therefore, the insured rate of unemployment is not at a record high. It rose to 4.2% which was the highest since June of 1983. During the last ten years there has been a 93% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 7 were in Michigan (7.8 percent), Oregon (7.6), Idaho (7.2), Wisconsin (6.8), Pennsylvania (6.5), Rhode Island (6.5), Nevada (6.2), Montana (6.0), Indiana (5.9), and Vermont (5.9).
The unemployment insurance claim data is available in Haver's WEEKLY database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/21/09 | 03/14/09 | 03/07/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 652 | 644 | 657 | 77.7% | 420 | 321 | 313 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 5,560 | 5,438 | 96.1% | 3,342 | 2,552 | 2,459 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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