Global| Jan 30 2017Texas Factory Sector Activity Nears Seven-Year High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index surged to 22.1 during January, the strongest reading since March 2010. Most of the survey indicators [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index surged to 22.1 during January, the strongest reading since March 2010. Most of the survey indicators improved, notably the volume of new orders, their growth rate and shipments volume. Employment also reached the highest level in just over a year, and the workweek reading surged. Another labor indicator, the wages & benefits series, rose to the highest level since September. As for inflation, the prices paid indicator surged to the highest level since April 2011, and prices for raw materials similarly strengthened.
The General Business Activity, Six Months Ahead Index also strengthened, rising to the best level since December 2004. The company outlook measure reached a 12-year high, and the expected business activity measure similarly improved. Expected production remained strong. The volume of new orders, and their expected growth rate rose sharply. Expected delivery times remained slow. Future employment hit the highest level since 2006, and the expected workweek remained high.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'16 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current General Business Activity Index | 22.1 | 17.7 | 12.5 | -35.8 | -8.8 | -12.5 | 8.4 |
| Production | 11.9 | 14.8 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 2.4 | -1.0 | 14.5 |
| Growth Rate of Orders | 6.7 | -1.1 | 1.6 | -18.2 | -7.3 | -11.8 | 4.7 |
| Number of Employees | 6.1 | -3.4 | 4.5 | -5.2 | -4.9 | -0.4 | 11.5 |
| Prices Received for Finished Goods | 17.7 | 16.2 | 9.5 | -10.1 | -1.6 | -8.5 | 8.3 |
| General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 43.7 | 42.5 | 34.2 | -25.3 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 17.4 |
| Production | 53.9 | 54.8 | 51.9 | 26.0 | 35.8 | 31.1 | 42.7 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | 48.4 | 36.0 | 42.8 | -15.7 | 24.3 | 20.7 | 31.5 |
| Wages & Benefits | 42.5 | 43.6 | 41.0 | 28.0 | 34.8 | 33.2 | 43.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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