Global| May 21 2002Chain Store Sales Remained Soft
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales in the latest week fell slightly for the second consecutive week according to BTM-UBSW. Despite the recent weakness, May sales are up 1.0% so far versus the April average due to a surge in sales as the month began. [...]
Chain store sales in the latest week fell slightly for the second consecutive week according to BTM-UBSW.
Despite the recent weakness, May sales are up 1.0% so far versus the April average due to a surge in sales as the month began.
During the last ten years there has been a 20% correlation between the monthly percent change in chain store sales and the change in consumer confidence.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 5/18/02 | 5/11/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 405.6 | 405.8 | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
by Tom Moeller May 21, 2002
The US budget posted the usual seasonal improvement last month, but the surplus was less than expected and was the smallest since 1995.
Receipts rose sharply m/m with the April 15 tax filing date, but fell 28.4% versus last April. Fiscal YTD individual income taxes were down 18.6% versus last year, reflecting higher unemployment. Fiscal YTD corporate taxes fell 14.7% versus last year.
Growth in expenditures remained strong lifted by higher spending on defense (13.6% YTD), education (12.3% YTD) and income security (15.4% YTD).
| US Government Finance | April | Mar | Fiscal YTD | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | $67.2B | $-64.2B | $-66.5B | $127.2B | $236.9B | $124.4B |
| Revenues | $237.4B | $111.2B | -10.9% | -1.7% | 10.8% | 6.1% |
| Outlays | $170.3B | $175.5B | 8.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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