Viewpoints: April 2023

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in March show only one state (Alaska) with a decline from February. West Virginia again had the largest increase: a whopping 1.69 percent (Massachusetts and South Dakota were just shy of 1 percent). At the three-month horizon Alaska was also the only state to see a loss, and West Virginia registered the highest increase, with its 3.91 percent gain about 1 ¾ percentage points above number 2 Montana. A remarkable 26 states had increases above 1 percent. Over the past 12 months, New Mexico was the leader (as was the case in February’s report) with an increase over 5 percent (Florida was barely short. Florida, Nevada, and Texas were the other states with gains above 4 percent. Wyoming, Vermont, and Kansas were the states with increases less than 1 percent over this period.

The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.86 percent) seems short of what the state figures suggest, while the corresponding 12-month result (3.85 percent) looks somewhat higher than what the state results might suggest.

State payrolls were little-changed in March. Only 2 states (Massachusetts and Kentucky) saw statistically significant increases, and a number saw point declines. The largest numerical gain was Texas’s 28,600. The sum of the changes in all the states was a modest 177,300.

18 states saw statistically significant declines in unemployment, none larger than the .3 percentage point drops in New Hampshire, Oregon, and West Virginia. DC experienced a .1 percentage point increase. Nevada continued to have the highest unemployment rate, 5.5 percent. The two Washingtons (DC and the state) were the only other places with unemployment rates as much as a point higher than the national average of 3.5 percent. Alabama, Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Dakota, and Wisconsin were at least a pointer under the national rate, with that n South Dakota an incredible 1.9 percent.

Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate held at 6.0 percent, and its job count was essentially unchanged.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in February were generally up. Only 3 states (Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts) saw declines from January; West Virginia’s 1.11 percent gain was far and away the largest. All states saw increases over the three months since November, with only 3 (New Jersey, New York, and Arkansas) having gains less than .5 percent, and 17 growing more than 1 percent (West Virginia was again on top, with a 2.35 percent increase). Over the past 12 months, New Mexico was the only state with an increase over 5 percent (Florida was barely short, while Texas and California were well over 4 percent)), while Hawaii and Kansas were the only states with gains less than 1 percent.

The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.16 percent) seems a bit short of what the state figures suggest, but the corresponding 12-month result (3.95 percent) looks plausibly in line with those of the states.