- Latest week’s increase in initial claims still yields decline in 4-week moving average.
- Continuing claims rose, but prior week revised down slightly.
- Insured unemployment rate holds steady at just 1.1%.
Introducing
Carol Stone, CBE
in:Our Authors
Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
Publications by Carol Stone, CBE
USA| Jul 27 2023U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Ease by 7,000 in Latest Week
- Initial claims lowest since late February.
- Continuing claims also fall in their latest week.
- Insured unemployment rate dips to 1.1% after 12 weeks at 1.2%.
- Initial claims range-bound after post-COVID downtrend.
- Total insured unemployment, though, rose markedly.
- Insured rate of unemployment stayed at 1.2% for the 11th week.
- Durable goods orders advance, nondurable goods industries see decline.
- Total shipments rise after 3 monthly declines.
- Durable goods inventories rise modestly in May while nondurable goods inventories drop.
USA| Jun 29 2023U.S. GDP Revised Higher in Q1
- GDP now seen up at 2.0% pace, firmer than 1.3% reported before.
- Higher exports and lower imports both contribute to upward revision.
- Consumer spending revised up, business investment revised down.
USA| Jun 27 2023U.S. Energy Prices Hardly Move in Latest Week
- Gasoline prices edge down.
- Crude oil prices edge higher.
- Natural gas prices, though, see more sizable daily move.
USA| Jun 15 2023U.S. Industrial Production Slows in May after Sizable April Gain
- Overall industrial production down 0.2%.
- Manufacturing output increases slightly after April’s big gain.
- Total capacity utilization edges down, but holds steady in manufacturing.
- Jobless claims remain at highest since October 2021.
- Continuing claims hold prior week’s modestly smaller amount.
- Insured unemployment rate unchanged, remains low for 7th straight week.
USA| Jun 08 2023Borrowing Up Modestly as % of GDP in Q1
- Federal government borrowing largest among nonfinancial sectors, but up just modestly in Q1.
- Business borrowing ratio to GDP increases.
- Households borrow smallest ratio to disposable income since 2020 pandemic.
USA| Jun 01 2023U.S. Q1 Productivity Move Revised To Be Less Negative
- Output revised modestly upward and hours modestly downward.
- Compensation now has more moderate advance in Q1.
- Manufacturing productivity now seen with bigger decline.
USA| May 31 2023U.S. JOLTS Job Openings Rise in April after 3 Months of Declines
- Openings were mixed by industry with biggest rate increase transportation & trade.
- Hires up after 2 monthly declines.
- Layoffs down after spike in March.
USA| May 26 2023U.S. Manufacturers’ Durable Goods Orders Still Firm in April, but Some Industries Saw Declines
- Transportation orders excluding aircraft & vehicles advanced in April.
- Computers, electrical equipment & metals orders all decreased.
- Shipments of all manufacturers were down, while inventories reversed March decline.
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