Global| Jul 21 2011U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increase Moderates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Indicators index rose 0.3% last month following an unrevised 0.8% May increase. Consensus expectations were for a 0.2% rise in June. Despite the latest increases, three-month [...]
The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic
Indicators index rose 0.3% last month following an unrevised 0.8%
May increase. Consensus expectations were for a 0.2% rise in June.
Despite the latest increases, three-month growth in the series fell
to 4.0% (AR) which was down from 7.9% in 2010.
The breadth of increase among the components, measured by the 1-month diffusion index, fell back to 50%, reversing most of its prior improvement. Money supply growth and a steeper interest rate yield spread made the largest contributions to the June increase. Lower consumer expectations and shorter weekly hours worked made the largest negative contributions.
The index of coincident indicators again ticked 0.1% higher in June after an unrevised 0.1% May increase. The three-month annualized rate of change was a negligible 0.4%, down from its January high of 4.0%. All four of the component series (employment, income, production and sales) contributed to the June uptick.
The lagging indicator index rose 0.3% in June, the sixth increase in the last seven months. Like earlier months, the gain was led by higher C&I loans offset by a slower 6-month change in the services CPI. The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators, which tends to "lead" the "leaders" fell for the fourth month in the last five to 94.0%.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there and most are also in USECON. The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators(%) | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 0.3 | -3.1 |
| Coincident | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 1.1 | -5.4 | -1.3 |
| Lagging | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.3 | -2.9 | -1.9 | 3.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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