Global| Jan 14 2005U.S. Inventories Gain Strongest Since 1995
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories jumped 1.0% in November. The increase lifted the y/y gain to 7.9%, the strongest since 1995, in marked contrast to the decumulation of just a few years ago. Wholesale inventories again jumped by 1.1%. During [...]
Total business inventories jumped 1.0% in November. The increase lifted the y/y gain to 7.9%, the strongest since 1995, in marked contrast to the decumulation of just a few years ago.
Wholesale inventories again jumped by 1.1%. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
Retail inventories surged 1.1% due to across the board accumulation. Motor vehicle inventories rose 1.6% (7.8% y/y) and non-auto retail inventories nearly doubled the October increase with a 0.9% rise. Strong m/m gains were logged for furniture (+3.9% y/y), a general merchandise (5.5% y/y) and building materials (15.7% y/y).
Overall business sales added 0.4% (+10.6% y/y) to the 11.4% pop in October.
The ratio of inventories-to-sales ticked up slightly to 1.31.
| Business Inventories | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1.0% | 0.4% | 7.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | -4.5% |
| Retail | 1.1% | -0.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | -2.8% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.9% | 0.5% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | -1.1% |
| Wholesale | 1.1% | 1.1% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% | -4.5% |
| Manufacturing | 0.7% | 0.9% | 7.2% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -6.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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