Global| Aug 20 2015U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Increase, but Remain Near Expansion Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market continues to expand. First time claims for unemployment insurance rose to 277,000 (-7.9% y/y) during the week ended August 15 from 273,000 in the week earlier, initially reported as 274,000. The four-week moving average [...]
The job market continues to expand. First time claims for unemployment insurance rose to 277,000 (-7.9% y/y) during the week ended August 15 from 273,000 in the week earlier, initially reported as 274,000. The four-week moving average rose slightly from the expansion low to 271,500. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 270,000 initial claims in the latest week.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey period for August nonfarm payrolls and they rose 22,000 (8.6%) from the July period. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.7%, near the lowest point since June 2000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance eased to 2.254 million (-10.5% y/y) from 2.278 million. The four-week moving average rose to 2.265 million, but has been moving sideways for two months.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Nebraska (0.75%), Virginia (0.84%), Florida (0.95%), Georgia (0.97%), Tennessee (1.05%) and Texas (1.64%) near the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (2.11%), West Virginia (2.13%), California (2.37%), Pennsylvania (2.59%), Connecticut (2.65%) and New Jersey (2.95%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 08/15/15 | 08/08/15 | 08/01/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 277 | 273 | 269 | -7.9 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,254 | 2,278 | -10.5 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 (8/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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