Global| Jul 23 2015U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline to 1973 Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The rate of labor market improvement may have accelerated. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 255,000 (-8.4% y/y) during the week ended July 18 from an unrevised 281,000 during the prior week. The latest figure was the [...]
The rate of labor market improvement may have accelerated. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 255,000 (-8.4% y/y) during the week ended July 18 from an unrevised 281,000 during the prior week. The latest figure was the lowest since November 1973. The four-week moving average eased to 278,500. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 281,000 initial claims.
The latest claim figure covers the survey period for July nonfarm payrolls and claims fell 13,000 (4.9%) from the June period. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 2.207 million (-12.4% y/y), the lowest level since late-May. The four-week moving average eased to 2.254 million.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.6%, the lowest point since June 2000.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.38%), Indiana (0.78%), Florida (0.89%), New Hampshire (0.94%), South Carolina (0.99%) and Tennessee (1.13%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (2.14%), California (2.28%), Alaska (2.39%), Pennsylvania (2.58%), Connecticut (2.75%) and New Jersey (2.96%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/18/15 | 07/11/15 | 07/04/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 255 | 281 | 296 | -8.4 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,207 | 2,216 | -12.4 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 (7/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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