Global| Nov 20 2014U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are Little-Changed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance during the week ended November 15 held fairly steady at 291,000 versus 293,000 during the prior week, revised from 290,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 280,000 claims in the [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance during the week ended November 15 held fairly steady at 291,000 versus 293,000 during the prior week, revised from 290,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 280,000 claims in the latest week. The four-week moving average of initial claims gained to 287,500.
The latest figure covers the survey week for November nonfarm payrolls and claims rose 7,000 (2.5%) from October. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended November 8 fell to 2.330 million (-19.3% y/y). The four-week moving average slipped to 2.369 million. The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.8% for the tenth straight week, the lowest level since May 2007.
By state, in the week ended October 25, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with North Dakota (0.31%), Indiana (0.86`%), New Hampshire (0.92%), Louisiana (1.02%), Ohio (1.15%) and Texas (1.15%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Oregon (2.02%), Massachusetts (2.09%), Pennsylvania (2.19%), Connecticut (2.37%), California (2.54%) and New Jersey (2.74%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/15/14 | 11/08/14 | 11/01/14 | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 291 | 293 | 278 | -12.3 | 343 | 375 | 409 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,330 | 2,403 | -19.3 | 2,977 | 3,319 | 3,742 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 (11/13) |
2.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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