Global| Oct 24 2011U.S. Chicago Fed Index Shows Small Improvement
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Though it improved m/m, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) for September remained under pressure. The figure rose to -0.22 from -0.59 in August, which was weaker than reported last month. The three-month moving average [...]
Though it improved m/m, the Chicago Fed's
National Activity Index (CFNAI) for September remained under
pressure. The figure rose to -0.22 from -0.59 in August, which was
weaker than reported last month. The three-month moving average
remained depressed at -0.21 for September, up slightly from -0.28
during August. The figures have been negative for most of this year.
During the last ten years there has been an 83% correlation between
the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
The Personal Consumption & Housing component of the index improved sharply m/m to its highest level since early-2010, though it remained negative. The other three index components turned into positive territory but each remained weak. Thirty-nine of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index in September, while 46 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. During August, 41 of the 85 component series made a positive contribution to the overall index while 44 made a negative contribution.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
The Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Economic Policy is Friday's speech by Fed Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen and it is available here.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.22 | -0.59 | 0.19 | -0.27 | -0.02 | -1.63 | -1.94 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.21 | -0.28 | -0.20 | -0.15 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.30 | -0.38 | -0.33 | -0.33 | -0.34 | -0.38 | -0.26 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.04 | -0.12 | 0.13 | -0.04 | 0.03 | -0.81 | -0.67 |
| Production & Income | 0.02 | -0.06 | 0.31 | 0.01 | 0.22 | -0.27 | -0.70 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.01 | -0.03 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.07 | -0.16 | -0.31 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
