Global| Aug 05 2015U.S. ADP: Payroll Employment Increase Softens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls improved 185,000 during July (2.3% y/y) following a downwardly revised 229,000 June increase. The gain fell short of consensus expectations for [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls improved 185,000 during July (2.3% y/y) following a downwardly revised 229,000 June increase. The gain fell short of consensus expectations for a 210,000 increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 97% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data.
Small-sized payrolls improved 59,000 (2.6% y/y), the weakest reading since a decline in December 2013. Medium-sized payrolls added 62,000 (2.2% y/y). Large payrolls strengthened 64,000 (1.8% y/y), the largest increase since December.
Employment in the goods-producing sector rose a lessened 8,000 (1.8% y/y). Hiring in construction posted a smaller 15,000 increase (4.8% y/y). Manufacturing sector jobs improved a modest 2,000 (0.9% y/y). Jobs in the service sector increased 178,000 (2.3% y/y), the weakest gain in three months. Jobs in professional & business services improved 42,000 (2.8% y/y) and trade, transportation & utilities employment increased 25,000 (1.9% y/y), the weakest rise since March 2013. Employment in the financial sector rose 10,000 (1.7% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 185 | 229 | 197 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 59 | 120 | 120 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 62 | 86 | 63 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 64 | 32 | 19 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goods-Producing | 8 | 12 | 11 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Construction | 15 | 19 | 28 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Manufacturing | 2 | 7 | -2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Service-Producing | 178 | 225 | 192 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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