Global| Apr 09 2003Mortgage Applications Down Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell 1.0% last week. It was the third consecutive weekly decline during which applications have fallen a total of 25.5%. Last week's decline was again led [...]
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell 1.0% last week. It was the third consecutive weekly decline during which applications have fallen a total of 25.5%.
Last week's decline was again led by a sharp decline in applications to refinance which fell 5.0% and are down 34.3% during the last three weeks.
Refinancing activity represented 70.3% of all mortgage applications, down from 73.3% the previous week and down from the high of 80.5%.
Mortgage applications for home purchase surged 9.9% to the highest level since early September. During the last five years there has been a 63% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
The average size of a mortgage loan application rebounded to $180,000 (-1.0% y/y). The average size of an application for home purchase was $190,400 (+3.8% y/y).
Interest rates on a conventional 30-Year mortgage rose last week. The contract rate rose to 5.80% versus 5.63% the prior week and the effective rate (incl. points) rose to 6.08%. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage rose to 5.44%.
Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site at http://www.mbaa.org.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 4/04/03 | 3/28/03 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 1,246.1 | 1,262.5 | 799.7 | 625.6 | 322.7 |
| Purchase | 400.8 | 364.7 | 354.7 | 304.9 | 302.7 |
| Refinancing | 6,162.8 | 6,484.6 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 | 438.8 |
by Tom Moeller April 9, 2003
Retail gasoline prices fell sharply week to an average of $1.63 per gallon. During the last three weeks prices have fallen a total of 5.7% from the high of $1.73.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click here.
Crude oil prices have fallen sharply. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude was $29.40 per barrel last week (8.9% y/y) but was down further to $28.03 yesterday. The recent high price was $37.03 during the last week of February.
Wholesale natural gas prices fell to $5.21/mmbtu yesterday, down from the cold-weather spike over $12.00 in late February.
For a discussion of residential natural gas prices by the US Department of Energy click here.
| US Retail Gasoline Prices | 04/07/03 | 12/30/02 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Formulations ($/Gal.) | $1.63 | $1.44 | 15.4% | $1.34 | $1.42 | $1.48 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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