Global| May 12 2008Italy’s Manufacturing Output Slips and EMU Tops Out
Summary
The quarter to date (which is now the completed 2008-Q1 period) shows still strong results for Italian output. But the monthly numbers reveal a different trend. The quarter’s lift stems totally from the spurt in output in January. [...]
The quarter to date (which is now the completed 2008-Q1 period) shows still strong results for Italian output. But the monthly numbers reveal a different trend. The quarter’s lift stems totally from the spurt in output in January. Since then output trends are on the decline in all sectors with the exception of transportation. Consumer goods output spurted by 3.6% in January, then fell by 2.6% in February and fell further, by 0.7% in March. Capital goods output has declined in March. Intermediate goods output is off for the last two months in a row – just about negating the rise in January.
The graph shows that output trends in France and Germany are topping while Italy is seeing the sharpest deceleration among the EMU big-three economies.
| Italy IP Excluding Construction | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAAR except m/m | Mar-08 | Feb-08 | Jan-08 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Quarter-to-date |
| IP-MFG | 0.0% | -0.2% | 1.9% | 7.0% | -1.4% | -1.9% | 5.3% |
| Consumer Goods | -0.7% | -2.6% | 3.6% | 0.9% | -2.1% | -4.3% | 3.2% |
| Capital Goods | -0.3% | 0.3% | 6.3% | 27.9% | -0.8% | -1.2% | 16.1% |
| Intermediary Goods | -0.5% | -0.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% | -4.1% | -3.1% | 1.0% |
| Memo | |||||||
| Transportation | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 33.8% | 0.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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