Global| Aug 04 2003Factory Orders Surged in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory orders surged 1.7% in June following a 0.3% increase in May. A 2.6% jump in durable goods orders drove the rise which was revised up slightly from an advance report of a 2.1% gain. The strength in June durable orders reflected [...]
Factory orders surged 1.7% in June following a 0.3% increase in May. A 2.6% jump in durable goods orders drove the rise which was revised up slightly from an advance report of a 2.1% gain.
The strength in June durable orders reflected a 21.1% spurt in orders for civilian aircraft. Excluding the transportation sector entirely, factory orders rose 1.2% (3.3% y/y).
Manufacturing inventories fell 0.2% in June for the fourth consecutive monthly decline. The ISM inventory index in July remained below 50 and therefore suggests further decumulation.
Inventories fell in most industries in June, but the 1.0% decline (-9.0% y/y) in computers and electronic products was notable. Electrical equipment inventories dropped 0.5% (-6.3% y/y) and machinery inventories fell 0.3% (-3.7% y/y). Furniture inventories squeaked out a 0.1% m/m gain and are up 0.9% y/y.
Nondurable goods inventories rose 0.4% (+4.3% y/y) for the first gain in three months.
Factory shipments jumped 1.1% (1.2% y/y) led by higher shipments in the transportation sector.
| Factory Survey (NAICS) | June | May | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.5% | -1.9% | -8.0% | 4.5% |
| New Orders | 1.7% | 0.3% | 4.2% | -0.8% | -7.2% | 5.2% |
| Shipments | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.2% | -1.1% | -5.3% | 4.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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