Global| May 15 2006Empire State Index Easier Again, Expected Conditions Off Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Empire State Index of General Business Conditions for May slipped further to 12.36 from an unrevised 15.81 in April. These levels are down sharply from the series' March high of 29.03 and are reported by the Federal Reserve Bank [...]
The Empire State Index of General Business Conditions for May slipped further to 12.36 from an unrevised 15.81 in April. These levels are down sharply from the series' March high of 29.03 and are reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Consensus expectations had been for stability at 16.2.
Since the series' inception in 2001 there has been a 76% correlation between the index level and the three month change in factory sector industrial production.
Many of the index components improved in May with the exception of employment which fell sharply to its lowest level since February. Orders & shipments both recovered modestly from sharp declines during April.
Pricing pressure recovered to the highest level since February.
Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question; it is not a weighted combination of the components. 
The index of expectations for business conditions in six months fell sharply to the lowest level since 2001 as expected pricing pressure rose and expected new orders fell.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here.
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey | May | April | May '05 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Conditions (diffusion index) | 12.36 | 15.81 | -10.36 | 15.56 | 28.79 | 15.98 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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