Global| Feb 11 2003Chain Store Sales Flat Last Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales were about flat during the first full week of February according to the BTM-UBSW survey. February sales started the month down 0.2% from the January average. The year-to-year comparison weakened appreciably because [...]
Chain store sales were about flat during the first full week of February according to the BTM-UBSW survey.
February sales started the month down 0.2% from the January average. The year-to-year comparison weakened appreciably because of strong sales gains in February 2002.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 2/08/03 | 2/01/03 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 408.9 | 408.8 | 0.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% |
by Tom Moeller February 11, 2003
Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil neared $35.00 per barrel as War worries intensified and added to the continuing labor strike in Venezuela, lean inventory conditions and a severe Winter as sources for price strength.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan addressed the impact of higher energy prices and war worries in his semi-annual testimony before Congress. "The intensification of geopolitical risks makes discerning the economic path ahead especially difficult. If these uncertainties diminish considerably in the near term, we should be able to tell far better whether we are dealing with a business sector and an economy poised to grow more rapidly--our more probable expectation--or one that is still laboring under persisting strains and imbalances that have been misidentified as transitory." To view the entire text of Greenspan's testimony click here
Wholesale gasoline prices surged through early February, topping $1.00 per gallon (up 90% y/y). Wholesale fuel oil prices have been even stronger moving well over $1.00 per gallon and are more than double last year at this time.
Wholesale natural gas prices rose above $6.00/mmbtu and are nearly triple last year's levels.
| Daily Crude Oil Prices | 2/10/03 | 12/31/02 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil | $34.48 | $31.23 | 60.9% | $26.17 | $25.97 | $30.34 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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