Global| Jul 05 2006ADP Nat'l Employment Report Indicates Strength in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Nat'l Employment Report published by ADP, the payroll processors for many employers, indicated that private nonfarm payrolls in June rose 368,000. The rise was the strongest increase in the brief history of the survey. For the [...]
The Nat'l Employment Report published by ADP, the payroll processors for many employers, indicated that private nonfarm payrolls in June rose 368,000. The rise was the strongest increase in the brief history of the survey.
For the prior month the increase in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls of 122,000 was accompanied by a meager 67,000 rise in May private nonfarm payrolls as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The June figure from BLS will be published this Friday.
ADP has compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which grew an average of 11,333 per month over the last year.
The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.
| LAXEPA@USECON | June | May | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (Chg.) | 368,000 | 122,000 | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | -0.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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