Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with Clear Future Consultants to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Tom Moeller

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Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% (-2.3% y/y) during March after increasing 0.2% in February, revised from 0.5%. The 0.2% January decline was unrevised and growth has moderated substantially since 2022. The latest decline matched expectations in the Informa Global Markets Survey.

In March, durable goods inventories eased 0.1 % (+2.1% y/y) after rising 0.7% in February. The value of metals inventories declined 1.6% (-8.4% y/y) while motor vehicles & parts inventories eased 0.1% (+9.5% y/y). Professional & commercial equipment inventories fell 0.2% (-0.3% y/y) including a 2.4% gain (3.4% y/y) in inventories of computer equipment. Electrical & electronic goods edged 0.1% lower (-6.0% y/y) but furniture inventories rose 1.0% (-8.1% y/y). Inventories of lumber & other construction materials rose 0.8% (0.3% y/y).

Nondurable wholesale goods inventories weakened 1.1% (-9.1% y/y) in March after a 0.5% February decline. Farm product inventories dropped 2.3% (-30.7% y/y) while grocery product inventories weakened 1.0% (5.8% y/y). Paper & product inventories fell 0.9% (-14.6% y/y). Working higher, inventories of petroleum & products rose 1.2% (-15.2% y/y) while chemicals & products inventories increased 0.5% (-9.9% y/y).

Wholesale sales of merchandise declined 1.3% (+1.4% y/y) in March after rising 2.0% in in February. A 1.0% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Durable goods sales fell 1.0% in March (+1.4% y/y) after a 1.4% February rise. Metals & minerals sales dropped 4.4% (-12.6% y/y) and motor vehicle & parts sales decreased 1.9% (+6.8% y/y). Furniture sales declined 1.6% (-5.1% y/y) and machinery sales weakened 0.4% (-0.6% y/y). Electrical equipment sales weakened 0.7% (+3.9% y/y). To the upside, professional equipment sales increased 0.2% (1.9% y/y) with a 1.0% rise (-1.1% y/y) in computers. Hardware sales increased 0.6% (3.1% y/y).

Among nondurable goods wholesalers, sales fell 1.6% in March (+1.5% y/y) after rising 2.5% in February. Farm product sale were off 10.3% (-12.8% y/y. Petroleum sales weakened 5.6% (+0.5% y/y). Paper & product sales declined 0.5% (-4.1% y/y) and apparel sales fell 0.9% (-3.6% y/y). Chemical sales rose 2.6% (1.3% y/y) while grocery purchases improved 0.2% (1.3% y/y).

The wholesale inventory/sales ratio (I/S) edged up to 1.35 in March from 1.34 in February. For durable goods, the I/S ratio of 1.82 in March was increased from 1.80 in February. The nondurable goods I/S ratio was stable m/m at 0.93.

The wholesale trade figures are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau and are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure for total inventories is contained in the **MMSAMER** database, and the sales expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Wholesale inventories reverse February increase.
- Sales decline also follows earlier strength.
- The I/S ratio increases slightly m/m after trending lower.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales Decline in March

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Mortgage applications rose 2.6% (-13.5% y/y) in the week ended May 3 after declines of 2.3% and 2.7% in the prior two weeks. Home purchase loans increased 1.8% (-17.0% y/y) following declines of 1.7% and 1.0% in the prior two weeks. Applications to refinance a loan improved 4.5% (-5.8% y/y) after declines of 3.3% and 5.6% in the prior two weeks. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan eased to 7.37% in the week ended May 3 from 7.48% in the prior week. It compared to a high of 8.12% in mid-October of last year and a low of 6.87% in the fourth week of December. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 6.75% in the latest week from 6.90% in the week prior. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans declined to 7.44% last week from 7.53% in the week prior, while the rate on the 5-year ARM of 6.84% compared to 6.88% one week earlier. These latter rates remain below the 7.31% high in the last week of October but above the recent low of 5.93% in the last week of December.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan of 30.6% in the week ended May 3 compared to 30.2% in the prior week. That compared to a high of 39.7% in mid-December. The percentage of applications that were ARMs eased to 7.7% from 7.8%. The recent low of 5.4% was reached in early-January.

The average loan size rose 2.0% (-2.4% y/y) to $385,600 in the week ended May 3 from $378,200 in the prior week. The average size of a purchase loan increased 1.7% (0.6% y/y) to $443,200 in the latest week from $436,000 in the prior week. The average loan size to refinance a mortgage rose 4.3% (-8.2% y/y) to $255,100 from $244,600 in the prior week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Mortgage applications rise after two weeks of decline.
- Purchase applications & refinancing applications both increase.
- The effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans dips.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Increase as Interest Rates Slip Last Week

Robert Brusca

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German industrial production was strong in January and February but March brough a setback as IP slipped back by 0.4% month-to-month. In March, month-to-month IP fell in all major IP categories except capital goods where it edged ahead by 0.1%.

**Sequential trends**
Sequentially, German IP shows signs of life and of acceleration. The month’s small setback has not reversed that, but since it is an early setback in a process of recovery that is long overdue there is some skepticism about whether the rebound will be sustained. Persisting acceleration is exhibited in the headlines and in all three key sectors. Still, the year-on-year change shows a net drop for the headline and all components. Capital goods still show net output declines on all horizons.

**Trends year-on-year**
Year-on-year consumer goods trends (see data plot) show a somewhat sharper move upward in growth rates while intermediate goods show a slow crawl higher – in both cases this means slower year-on-year declines in train. Capital goods trends show less recovery with only a recent bounce from a deep, 6.2% year-on-year decline, logged in January of this year.

**Quarter-to-date**
 The QTD trends show strong gains across components and for the IP headline – the exception is capital goods where output is still falling at a 6.3% annual rate, even with all this pickup in activity around it. The failure of capital goods to join the rebound parade is another reason to remain cautious about embracing the notion of the sustainability of the rebound.

**Other IP assessments**
There is a column of queue standings that rank the year-on-year growth rate on annual data over the last 24 years. This ranking produces a standing in the 14.5 percentile for IP overall and sector standings that rank from 39% to 11%. Next, evaluating IP gains from before Covid in January 2020 to date, leaves us with an empty house. There are no net gains! All sectors show the level of IP in March 2024 -a hearty four-year period – containing some major and minor cycles, a sucker punch from Covid and the Russian attack on Ukraine – at lower levels. German industrial output overall and across sectors is weaker on balance and with unclear momentum. Statistically the momentum looks good right now, but it still must show its sustainability.

**Other German manufacturing metrics**
Manufacturing output on its own follows the same script as for overall IP. However- ominously- real manufacturing orders do not. They show the opposite case, an implosion of sequential growth rates culminating in a drop at a nearly 40% annual rate over three months. Real sales also show a steady diet of declines without much trend but with their weakest reading over the more recent period. The queue standings of the annual growth rates are low.

**German surveys**
The monthly survey results are a mixed bag of monthly trends. The sequential averages, however, show a trend to deterioration of all four industrial metrics, save one (IFO manufacturing). QTD the survey results are split. The queue standings of the surveys are uniformly weak in the ranking range of 10-15-percentile…quite weak.

**Other Europe MFG IP**
Other Europe presents a split view. Monthly data for the four European nations in the table are mixed. Trends from 12-month to 6-month to 3-month are showing acceleration for Spain and Portugal vs. a clear trend to deceleration in France. Norway, a non-EMU country, shows unclear trends but only exhibits an output decline over 12 months. However, the IP standings for the four European nations in the table all are superior to Germany’s. Germany traditionally is the European powerhouse on this metric. Remember this is an individual ranking metric; it does not rank countries against one another. Germany’s own ranking is 14.5%, Spain’s own ranking is 77.7%, France and Portugal have mid 40-perentile rankings, while Norway has a 37-percentile ranking. Comparing each to its own normal performance over the last 24 years, all countries are doing better than Germany. Not surprisingly, German output has fallen by 8.7% since January 2020 compared to a net 4.6% drop for France, a net 2.8% drop for Portugal, a net 0.9% drop for Norway, and an 8.1% rise for Spain. Europe is not operating as it has in traditionally normal times. Covid and the Russian invasion have turned Europe on its head…and it is still there, despite some early signs Germany may be mounting a recovery.

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Germany

German IP Falls in March after Two Months of Strong Gains

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Consumer credit outstanding rose $6.3 billion (2.3% y/y) during March after a $15.0 billion February rise, revised from $14.1 billion. These figures compare to an $18.4 billion gain during January. A $15.3 billion rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to disposable personal income of 24.3% in March compared to 24.4% in February. It remained below the December 2022 high of 25.4%.

Revolving credit outstanding, which includes credit cards, edged $0.16 billion higher (7.8% y/y) in March after a $10.7 billion increase in February and an $8.1 billion January rise. It was the smallest increase since falling $1.3 billion in April 2021. Borrowing at banks rose 8.7% y/y, but finance company loans fell 7.0% y/y. Credit union loans increased 7.6% y/y.

Nonrevolving credit balances increased $6.1 billion (0.5% y/y) in March following a $4.3 billion February gain and a $10.3 billion January increase. Borrowing at banks fell 2.7% y/y, while finance company loans grew 7.7% y/y. Credit unions loans increased 1.3% y/y but federal government loans eased 0.9% y/y. The total of nonrevolving credit includes secured and unsecured credit for big-ticket items, such as autos, mobile homes, trailers, durable goods and vacations.

The value of student loans outstanding declined 1.3% y/y in Q1’24, while motor vehicle loans increased 2.6% y/y in Q1’24.

The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the **AS1REPA** database.

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- Revolving credit usage increases minimally.
- Nonrevolving credit growth picks up.

Consumer Credit Growth Slows Sharply in March

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades edged lower to $3.77 per gallon (+3.3% y/y) in the week ended May 6 after falling to $3.78 in the prior week. These compare to a low of $3.18 in the middle of January. The recent high stands at $4.00 per gallon in the third week of September, and the all-time high was $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel declined an average $3.89 per gallon (-0.7% y/y) last week versus $3.95 per gallon in the prior week. A recent low of $3.77 per gallon occurred in the week ended July 3, 2023.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $80.76 per barrel (+13.5% y/y) in the week ended May 3 from an average $83.95 in the prior week. It remained well above its low of $69.37 per barrel in the week of June 30, 2023 but below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The all-time high was seen in the week of July 4, 2008 at $142.46 per barrel. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $78.48 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil slipped to an average $85.73 per barrel (+14.9% y/y) in the week ended May 3 from $88.53 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022.

Natural gas prices rose to an average of $1.64/mmbtu (-19.6% y/y) in the week ended May 3 compared to $1.54/mmbtu in the prior week. Still, these were near the lowest prices since December 1998 and compare to a recent high of $3.20 averaged in the week of October 13, 2023. Yesterday, the natural gas price was $1.88/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 3.6% y/y in the four weeks ended April 26 after similarly falling in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products rose held steady y/y, about as they did in the earlier prior four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 0.3% y/y in the four weeks ended April 26, rising 0.9% y/y in the previous four week period.

Gasoline inventories increased 1.9% y/y in the week of April 26 following a 2.5% y/y increase in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 9.8% y/y in the week of April 26 after declining 12.0% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose 0.3% y/y in the week of April 26 following a 1.0% y/y decline one week earlier.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories were 26.5 days in the week of April 26 versus 26.0 days in the prior week. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories declined to 29.2 days of supply in the week of April 26, up from 28.6 days in the prior week. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline & diesel fuel prices slip.
- Crude oil prices fall to seven-week low.
- Natural gas prices improve.

U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Decline in Latest Week

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Business Formation Statistics by State (Apr)

Used Car Sales (Jan-Mar), UKF Mortgages, Arrears & Possessions (Q1), BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel (Apr)

Loans Outstanding of Thrift Banking System (Mar)

Trade, Domestic Food and Fuel Prices (Mar)

Assets & Liabilities, Govt Bond Holdings (Apr)

Avg Temperature and Avg Precipitation (Apr)

International Reserves (Apr-Prelim), IP (Mar)