- Korea: Business Survey & Economic Sentiment Index (Mar)
- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Regional Payroll Employment (Feb)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Mar-final), GDP & Corp Profits (Q4-3rd Est)
- Turkey: Foreign Reserves & Currency Liquidity, Tourism (Feb); Egypt: IP (Jan); Kuwait: BOP (Q3)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Mar-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q3-3rd Estimate)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
French Households Begin to Feel Better... But Not Well
The French household confidence reading has been stuck in a range of mostly the mid- to high-80s...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Return to Five-Week Low
Initial claims for jobless insurance in the week ended March 21 declined to 282,000 from an unrevised 291,000 during the prior week...
Kansas City Fed's Factory Sector Index Moves Sharply Lower, Helped by Port Closings
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that business activity moderated significantly this month...
EMU Trends Turn Up for Credit and Money
The EMU is showing a clear pick up in credit and money growth trends as of February...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline is Broad-Based
New orders for durable goods fell 1.4% during February (+0.6% y/y) following a 2.0% January increase...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Recover as Interest Rates Decline
The MBA U.S. total Mortgage Market Volume Index increased 9.5% last week (21.0% y/y) to the highest level since early-February...
by Tom Moeller March 27, 2015
Real GDP growth of 2.2% during Q4 2014 was unrevised in the latest estimate (2.4% y/y). The increase compared to an expected 2.4% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of last year, real GDP expanded 2.4%, up from 2.2% and 2.3% during the prior two years.
After-tax corporate profits fell at an 11.5% rate (+2.9% y/y), reversing the Q3 rise. Nonfinancial sector profits gained 5.7% (7.8% y/y), far weaker than during the prior two quarters. Financial sector earnings declined 10.3% (-9.8% y/y) while earnings from abroad fell at a 30.8% rate (-11 .6% y/y), the third decline in four quarters.
A minimal degree of inventory decumulation was revised from slight accumulation estimated last month. Both figures are lower than the 0.8 percentage point addition figured initially. Deterioration in the foreign trade deficit subtracted a lessened 1.0 percentage points from economic growth, the same as figured in the initial estimate. Exports grew at a 4.5% rate (2.4% y/y) compared to 3.2% figured last month while imports jumped at a 10.4% rate (5.6% y/y) compared to last month's estimate of 10.1%.
Growth in domestic final sales was inched up to 3.3% (2.9% y/y). Business fixed investment growth of 4.7% (6.2 y/y) was little-changed. Investment in information processing equipment grew 19.9% (6.9% y/y) but industrial equipment fell 15.5% (+11.8% y/y). Investment in intellectual property products increased 10.3% (7.3% y/y). Business investment accounted for 0.6 percentage points of GDP's increase last quarter.
The increase in consumer spending was bumped up to 4.4% (2.9% y/y) and added 3.0 percentage points to GDP growth. Services spending grew 4.3% (2.2% y/y), the largest rise since Q2 2000. Health care spending increased 7.9% (3.7% y/y), food services outlays grew 7.0% (3.9% y/y) and recreation spending rose 3.6% (0.1% y/y). Spending on durable goods grew 6.2% (8.1% y/y) led by a 9.4% rise (10.4% y/y) in recreational goods & vehicles. Purchases of furniture grew 6.8% (6.5% y/y) while motor vehicles gained 3.8% (9.8% y/y). Nondurable goods spending rose 4.1% (2.2% y/y), paced by a 9.5% jump (3.0% y/y) in apparel. Purchases at restaurants slipped 0.3% (-0.7% y/y), down for the fourth straight quarter. Lower prices spurred a 9.1% jump (2.1% y/y) in real gasoline & fuel oil usage, off 31.6% (-9.2% y/y) in nominal dollars.
Residential investment spending growth was increased 3.8% (2.5% y/y), up slightly from Q3. A 1.9% decline (+0.8% y/y) in government spending was little-changed. National defense spending fell 12.2% (-0.3% y/y).
The GDP chain price index edged 0.1% higher (1.2% y/y), unchanged from last month's estimate. The personal consumption price index fell 0.4% (+1.1% y/y) but it rose 1.1% (1.4% y/y) excluding food & energy. The business fixed investment price index gained 0.3% (1.0% y/y), held back by a 1.7% decline (+0.3% y/y) in intellectual property product prices. The residential investment price index gained 4.5% (5.2% y/y).
The latest GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA databases; USNA contains basically all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
|Chained 2009 $, %, AR||Q4'14 (Third Estimate)||Q4'14 (Second Estimate)||Q4'14 (Advance Estimate)||Q3'14||Q2'14||Q4 Y/Y||2014||2013||2012|
|Gross Domestic Product||2.2||2.2||2.6||5.0||4.6||2.4||2.4||2.2||2.3|
|Foreign Trade Effect||-1.0||-1.2||-1.0||0.8||-0.3||-0.5||-0.1||0.3||0.1|
|Domestic Final Sales||3.3||3.2||2.8||4.1||3.4||2.9||2.4||1.9||2.1|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||4.4||4.2||4.3||3.2||2.5||2.9||2.5||2.4||1.8|
|Business Fixed Investment||4.7||4.8||1.9||8.9||9.7||6.2||6.3||3.0||7.2|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||-0.4||-0.4||-0.5||1.2||2.3||1.1||1.3||1.2||1.8|