- Ireland: Money Supply (Sep), Credit Measures (Sep)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Oct-final), Employment Cost Index (Q3), Personal Income (Sep)
- Spain: Capacity Utilization (Q4), BOP (Aug), Central Govt Debt (Sep), Consumer Confidence (Oct)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Oct-final)
- US: Chicago PMI, Milwaukee PMI (Oct)
- US: Underlying NIPA Tables (Q3-Adv), Key Source Data (Q3)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Strengthens
The employment cost index for private industry workers jumped 0.7% (2.3% y/y) in Q3'14, following an unrevised 0.8% Q2 rise...
U.S. GDP Growth in Q3 Is Stronger Than Expected
GDP grew 3.5% last quarter (2.3% y/y) following an unrevised 4.6% rise...
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Tick Higher
Initial claims for unemployment insurance during the week ended October 25 rose to 287,000 (-17.1% y/y) from 284,000...
EU Indices Head Higher in October
The EU overall sentiment index rose to a level of 104 in October from 103.5 in September...
FOMC Ends QE As Economy Improves & Inflation Remains Low
The Fed indicated that labor market improvement, moderate growth in household spending and positive business investment growth allowed for ending QE...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Pull Back
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index declined 6.6% last week (-20.2% y/y) following three week's of improvement...
by Tom Moeller October 31, 2014
Personal consumption expenditures fell 0.2% during September (+3.5% y/y) following an unrevised 0.5% August improvement. A 0.1% uptick had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 5.3% decline (+9.6% y/y) in motor vehicle purchases offset a 6.3% rise. Furnishings and durable household equipment spending fell 0.4% (+1.4% y/y), counterbalancing the 0.4% August rise. Apparel purchases fell 0.9% (+1.9% y/y) after a 0.6% increase but services spending added 0.2% (3.9% y/y) to the 0.5% gain. In constant dollars, spending was down 0.2% (+2.1% y/y).
Disposable personal income ticked up just 0.1% (3.9% y/y), the weakest performance since December. In constant dollars, disposable income was unchanged (2.5% y/y). Overall personal income increased 0.2% (4.1% y/y), just short of expectations for a 0.3% rise. Wages & salaries improved 0.2% (5.1% y/y) while rental income gained 0.2% (6.9% y/y). Personal transfer receipts increased 0.3% (5.6% y/y), bolstered by a 0.8% rise in Medicaid income (15.6% y/y). Earnings from dividends rose 0.5% (2.7% y/y). To the downside, interest income fell 0.4% (+0.3% y/y) for the third straight month, while proprietors income slipped 0.1% (+1.6% y/y).
The decline in spending coupled with a rise in income caused the personal saving rate to recover to 5.6%, matching the highest level since December 2012. Personal savings rebounded 4.3% (11.4% y/y) and made up a 3.6% August decline.
The chain price index nudged 0.1% higher last month (1.4% y/y) after a 0.1% dip. Energy prices fell 0.8% (-0.9% y/y) while food prices gained 0.2% (2.5% y/y). Durable goods prices dipped 0.1% (-2.3% y/y) while nondurable prices slipped marginally (+1.0% y/y). Services prices gained 0.1% (2.2% y/y). The price index excluding food & energy edged 0.1% higher (1.5% y/y) for a third straight month.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The consensus expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
|Personal Income & Outlays (%)||Sep||Aug||Jul||Y/Y||2013||2012||2011|
|Wages & Salaries||0.2||0.5||0.3||5.1||2.8||4.5||4.0|
|Disposable Personal Income||0.1||0.3||0.2||3.9||1.0||4.9||5.0|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||-0.2||0.5||0.0||3.5||3.6||3.7||4.8|
|Personal Saving Rate||5.6||5.4||5.6||5.2
|PCE Chain Price Index||0.1||-0.1||0.1||1.4||1.2||1.8||2.5|
|Less Food & Energy||0.1||0.1||0.1||1.5||1.3||1.8||1.5|
|Real Disposable Income||0.0||0.3||0.1||2.5||-0.2||3.0||2.5|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||-0.2||0.5||-0.0||2.1||2.4||1.8||2.3|