- Singpore's HDB Resale Price Index Rebased to Q1 2009=100
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-final), GDP (Q4, Adv), ECI (Q4)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Jan-final)
- US: NY Fed Coincident Indexes (Dec)
- US: Chicago PMI (Jan)
- Belgium: Flash GDP (Q4)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Nov)
- US: Chicago Midwest Mfg (Dec)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables, Summary Key Source Data (Q4-Adv)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Remains Weak; Prices Collapse
The Chicago PMI for January ticked higher to 59.4 but remained down from 64.5 reached three months ago...
U.S. Employment Cost Index Moderates in Q4
The employment cost index for private industry workers rose 0.6% (2.1% y/y) in Q4'14, following an unrevised 0.7% Q3 rise...
The Germans in the Dell: the Cheese and the Germans Stand Alone
The unemployment rate turned lower in December in both the EU and EMU...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Plunge to 2000 Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 265,000 during the week ended January 24 from 308,00 during the prior week...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline in December and for All of 2014
The NAR reported that pending sales of single-family homes declined 3.7% last month (+6.1% y/y) following a revised 0.6% November increase...
EMU Money and Credit Struggle Higher
EMU money and credit growth in December show signs of making progress...
by Tom Moeller January 30, 2015
Real GDP growth last quarter slowed to 2.6% (AR, 2.5% y/y) from 5.0% in Q3. For all of 2014, growth of 2.4% compared to 2.2% and 2.3% during the prior two years. The latest gain fell short of a 3.3% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall growth in final sales decelerated to 1.8% (2.2% y/y) from 5.0% as net export deterioration sapped one percentage point from growth, reversing its addition in Q3. The subtraction occurred as imports grew at an 8.9% rate (5.3% y/y), outpacing export growth of 2.8% (2.0% y/y). Working the other way, faster inventory accumulation raised GDP growth last quarter by 0.8 percentage points.
Growth in domestic final demand slowed sharply to 2.8% (2.8% y/y) from 4.1%. Holding back growth was a lessened 1.9% rise (5.5% y/y) in business fixed investment, down from 8.9% in Q3. The slowdown reflected a 1.9% decline (+4.7% y/y) in equipment spending, off from double-digit growth in the prior two quarters. Government spending also declined 2.2% (+0.7% y/y), held back by a 12.6% drop (-0.4% y/y) in defense. State & local government spending growth was stable at 1.3% (1.1% y/y).
Faster growth in consumer spending picked up some of this slack. A 4.1% rise (2.8% y/y) in consumption was the strongest since Q1 2006. Quicker 4.4% growth (2.3% y/y) in spending on nondurables reflected a 13.4% rise (3.9% y/y) in apparel and a 12.3% gain (2.9% y/y) in gasoline & fuel oil, spurred by lower prices. Services spending also picked up to 3.7% (2.1% y/y) from 2.5%. It was sparked by a 6.0% jump (3.7% y/y) in restaurants & accommodations as well as a 5.9% surge (0.7% y/y) in recreation. Durable goods purchases eased to 7.5% growth (8.4% y/y) from 9.2%. Motor vehicles & parts purchases slowed to 6.4% (10.4% y/y) from 11.2% though spending on furnishings & household durables remained firm at 5.7% (6.3% y/y).
Residential investment also grew at a slightly quicker 4.1% rate last quarter (2.6% y/y), though this compares to double-digit growth in 2012 & 2013.
The GDP chain price index was nearly unchanged (1.2% y/y) following a 1.4% rise. The personal consumption price index fell at a 0.5% rate (+1.1% y/y). A 6.2% decline in the nondurable price index (-0.3% y/y) added to 3.6% decline (-2.6% y/y) in the durables index. The services price index rose at a stable 2.0% rate (2.2% y/y). The PCE price index excluding food & energy increased at a 1.1% rate (1.4% y/y), its weakest rise Q2'13
The latest GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA databases; USNA contains basically all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
Components of U.S. Financial Sector Growth, 1950-2013 from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
|Chained 2009 $, %, AR||Q4'14 (Advance Estimate)||Q3'14||Q2'14||Q4 Y/Y||2014||2013||2012|
|Gross Domestic Product||2.6||5.0||4.6||2.5||2.4||2.2||2.3|
|Foreign Trade Effect||-1.0||0.8||-0.3||-0.6||-0.1||0.3||0.1|
|Domestic Final Sales||2.8||4.1||3.4||2.8||2.4||1.9||2.1|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||4.3||3.2||2.5||2.8||2.5||2.4||1.8|
|Business Fixed Investment||1.9||8.9||9.7||5.5||6.1||3.0||7.2|
|Chain-Type Price Index|
|Personal Consumption Expenditures||-0.5||1.2||2.3||1.1||1.3||1.2||1.8|