- Spain: Institutional Sector Accounts (Q4), Credit Institutions Balance Sheet (Feb)
- Bahrain: CPI (Mar); Turkey: Foreign PPI (Mar); Jordan: Import & Export Price Indexes
- US: NABE Industry Survey (Q1)
- Japan: Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q1), International Trade, Indexes of Trade (Mar-Prelim)
- Bangladesh: Wage Earners' Remittances, Money Supply, Monetary Survey (Feb), International Reserves (Mar); Hong Kong: Composite
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Near 2007 Low
The labor market's recovery remained in evidence last week as initial unemployment insurance claims totaled 304,000...
European Car Sales Rise But Lose Momentum
Auto registrations in Europe have risen again on a year-over-year basis, posting an increase of 1.6% over 12 months...
U.S. Industrial Production Records a Surprising Gain
Industrial output in the U.S. increased 0.7% last month (3.7% y/y) following a 1.2% jump during February...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Rebound as Interest Rates Decline
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index jumped 4.3% last week (-57.7% y/y) to the highest level in four weeks...
U.S. Housing Starts Exhibit Disappointing Rebound
Housing starts in March gained 2.8% to 946,000 units (AR) from 920,000 in February...
U.S. Consumer Price Index Firms
Consumer prices increased 0.2% (1.5% y/y) during March following two months of 0.1% uptick...
by Tom Moeller April 17, 2014
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank reported that its General Business Conditions Index for April improved to 16.6. That added to its March improvement into positive territory after a weather-depressed negative reading in February. The latest figure surpassed consensus expectations for 10.0 according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The seasonally adjusted figure, constructed by Haver Analytics, also moved above break-even to 52.5. It is comparable to the ISM Composite index. During the last ten years, there has been a 71% correlation between the adjusted Philadelphia Fed index and real GDP growth.
Rebounds in the new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories components carried the overall index higher. The employment index also recovered to its highest level in three months. During the last ten years, there has been a 79% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls. To the downside versus March were the unfilled orders and delivery time series.
Pricing power deteriorated as the prices paid index fell to its lowest level since last May. A lessened 17 percent of respondents paid higher prices and a higher 6 percent paid less. During the last ten years, there has been a 71% correlation between the prices paid index and three-month growth in the intermediate goods PPI.
The separate index of expected business conditions in twelve months fell sharply to its lowest level in a year. Deterioration in the new orders, shipments, inventories, employment and capital expenditures components paced the fall. The future prices paid index improved to the highest level in three months.
The survey panel consists of 150 manufacturing companies in Federal Reserve District III (consisting of southeastern PA, southern NJ and Delaware.) The diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease in activity. The ISM adjusted figure, calculated by Haver Analytics, is the average of five diffusion indexes, new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). Each diffusion index is the sum of the percent responding "higher" and one-half of the percent responding "same."
The figures from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions is available here.
|Philadelphia Fed (%, SA)||Apr||Mar||Feb||Apr'13||2013||2012||2011|
|ISM-Adjusted General Business Conditions||52.5||49.7||47.7||46.0||50.0||47.8||52.0|
|General Business Conditions||16.6||9.0||-6.3||1.0||6.4||-0.2||7.7|
|Number of Employees||6.9||1.7||4.8||-5.6||1.5||0.1||11.0|