Introducing

Robert Brusca

Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.

Publications by Robert Brusca

Europe| Apr 08 2026
EMU PPI Trends Are Chaotic; It Could Get Worse
Chaotic trends Producer price trends for the European Monetary Union in February show great deal of weakness. The headline measure in February for total PPI prices (excluding construction) fell 0.5% after rising 0.5% in January. The three-month annualized change was -1.3%, over six months it was -0.7%, and year-over-year it was -3.1%. The trend is not particularly conclusive although the table also produces the trend for the HICP-core on the same timeline where there is acceleration in train. Despite this report and any trends, it may show that the risk to inflation in the PPI is now through elevated Brent crude prices, which we see in the chart has been historically well correlated with changes in the PPI.

The past may not be prologue The chart offers some insight into this matter as we see that recently the spike in Brent crude is substantial—and the chart doesn't even take us up-to-date to what we're dealing with in the markets today! We can see that in 2021 when all prices went up sharply, that preceded a spike in the PPI as well. However, in 2017 when there was a short-lived spike, there wasn't much impact on producer prices at all. Then, later in 2018, when prices spiked not quite so high or suddenly, but had a bit more sustained growth, there also was a very small knock-on impact on producer prices. One of the key features for whether the Brent rise gets into producer prices or not is how long-lived the spike remains in force and how people perceive it. In this case, there's closing of the Strait of Hormuz and a war in place; there's a good chance that investors are going to treat this as a real event and one with potential longevity. That means that this spike will elevate producer prices.

Overall PPI is tempered but, by country...not so much However, the table is based on data through February, and so oil spiking prices really haven't entered the picture as far as the table is concerned. On that basis, we're seeing a lot of price declines: an annualized three-month decline of 7.9% in Spain, 7.3% in Portugal, 3.6% in Germany, and so on. These figures clearly do not reflect what will be the lasting effect on oil prices as we get deeper into 2026. Even despite this weakness in headline inflation across countries in the monetary union, and in Europe generally, inflation is tempered year-over-year where it only rises compared to a year earlier for 7.7% of the reporters, but then over six months inflation accelerates for all of the reporters compared to its 12-month pace, and then, over three months it accelerates for about 70% of the reporters compared to the six-month pace.

PPI headline vs. core... where available There are two observations at the bottom of the table for the PPI excluding energy—for France and Germany. In both cases, the difference between the excluding energy price and the headline price is remarkable. For Germany, the ex-energy price is rising and clearly accelerating; in contrast, the headline trends show prices declining or a tendency toward deceleration. For France, the ex-energy prices are rising and sustaining larger increases over six months and three months than over 12 months. However, for France, in the table, the total PPI headline inflation rate declines on all horizons although the pace of decline is undergoing erosion. Once we set aside the weighting scheme for the monetary union, the PPI is looking instead at the average result of the countries in the table (an average that includes some non-monetary union members) where the inflation rate is clearly headed higher, not lower.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Apr 07 2026
Composite PMIs Retreat Broadly
The S&P composite PMIs in March weakened decisively across the board, with only four of 25 reporters showing an improvement in March compared to February. February had been a strong month, with only 10 of 25 monthly composite indicators weaker on a month-to-month basis. In January, 11 of the composite indicators weakened month-to-month. So, between January and March, the proportion of countries showing composite indicators as weaker month-to-month went up from 40% to 44% and then all the way up to 80%, a huge shift for the worse.

Sequential trends Sequentially, looking at 12-months compared to 12-months ago, six-months compared to 12-months, and three-months compared to six-months, we see a similar progression. Over 12 months, 43.5% of the reporters were weaker; over six months, 39.1% of them were weaker period-to-period. And then over three months, that proportion jumped to 65.2% that were weaker month-to-month.

The war in Iran has been reflected in these numbers. We see it very clearly for the March data, the first full month after the attack. The average and median total PMI readings deteriorated from February to March: the average readings fell from 52.6 in February to 50.7 in March, and the median readings fell from 52.1 to 51.4.

The number of reporters with PMI values below 50, indicating contraction, jumped to 9 in March from 4 in February and 5 in January.

The data show that there has been broad weakening among these reporters. In addition, there has been a sharp rise in the number of them reporting outright economic contraction. The composite indexes are showing not just weakness month-to-month, but actual stepped-up contraction.

The queue percentile standings are also substantially degraded, with only eight of the 25 queue metrics that are reported above their historic medians on data back to January 2022. And the countries that are reporting good performance are often very small countries. Ghana and Zambia show very strong queue percentile standings. Sweden shows a high percentile standing. However, Japan and Hong Kong also show percentile standings in their 90th percentile, and Germany's standing has gotten to its 70th percentile. However, if oil prices climb and shortages in a variety of supply chains begin to be impacted because of the lack of oil, and in some cases, fertilizer and other commodities, we are going to start to see weakness spread.

In some developing countries, there's already a more generalized economic weakness being caused by fuel rationing because prices are so high. If the Strait of Hormuz is not open soon, these conditions are going to get demonstrably worse. Even though the U.S. economy has done relatively well and is unaffected by oil supply shortages—although prices in the U.S. certainly have risen—the U.S. composite PMI index has only a 19.6 percentile standing, not a terribly good place to say that the economy is largely unaffected by these events. The U.S. composite PMI has fallen for two months in a row.

Not surprisingly, three countries have reported the lowest composite PMI readings since 2022 when these rankings began. They are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, all of whom are in the middle of this Middle East conflict.

The European Monetary Union posted a queue standing above its 50th percentile, at 54.9. And its diffusion reading on the month at 50.5 is similar to the U.S. at 50.3, indicating that economic activity is still expanding in the community—but barely. Both France and Italy logged composite PMI readings below 50; France has generated three sub-50 diffusion readings in a row, and in addition, three more of them sequentially over three months, six months, and 12 months. The queue standings may overstate the case for resiliency in some instances. There was plenty of weakness to go around across economies in March.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
France| Apr 03 2026
French IP Waffles
French manufacturing industrial production was flat in February after a January rebound; output rose by 0.2% following a 0.8% decline in December.

The components of industrial production in February showed 2.6% increase in consumer durables, a 0.4% increase in consumer nondurables, flat output from capital goods, and a 0.7% month to month decline in intermediate output.

Sequentially, French output had been growing at a slow, steady pace of 0.8% at an annual rate over both 12 months and six months, but then slipped to a 6.1% contraction at an annual rate over three months. Consumer durable goods output on this span shows consistent increases, but there are no trends to clear acceleration or deceleration. Consumer nondurables trace an accelerating path of moderate means from -1.8% over 12 months, to -0.4% over six months, and then rising at a 5.5% annual rate over three months. Capital goods output is moving in the opposite direction, growing by 3.4% over 12 months, slowing to a 0.7% annual pace over six months, and then contracting at a 9.5% annual rate over three months. Intermediate goods output is falling at 0.8% pace over 12 months, but then it switches to an expansion rate of 0.8% over six months and 0.6% and over three months. There's nothing remarkable about these patterns, except there's some acceleration, some deceleration, and a lot of mulling about at low growth rates.

As a separate item, French auto production is slipping and decelerating, falling by 7.1% at an annual rate over 12 months, falling at a 7.9% pace over six months, and then plunging at a 19.3% annual rate over three months. On these same horizons, motor vehicle registrations fall by 14.7% over 12 months; the weakness pares back to an 11.2% annual rate decline over six months, and then it steps up to a 22.1% decline at an annual rate over three months. French demand for autos is not in good shape.

In the quarter to date—now two months into the first quarter—manufacturing industrial production is falling at a 0.8% annual rate. That pace is boosted by 9.4% annual rate gain in consumer durables output but restrained by just a 0.2% annual rate increase in consumer nondurable goods. Capital goods output is falling at a 1.9% annual rate, while intermediate goods output is falling at a 1% annual rate. Also in the quarter to date, automobile production is plunging at a 24.3% annual rate, while on the demand side, motor vehicle registrations are falling at a 15% annual rate.

French manufacturing data are somewhat confusing. The chart shows that the industrial production trend has been showing consistent increases over 12 months, but it has recently been pulling back relatively sharply. On the other hand, the manufacturing PMI for France has been consistently negative going back to mid-2022 and only in early 2026 has the manufacturing PMI been posting some values above the 50% mark, indicating that output was starting to actually expand. In March, the PMI reading for manufacturing has slipped back by the thinnest margin below the 50% mark.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Apr 02 2026
Global Manufacturing PMIs Stall—Will It Get Worse?
The S&P manufacturing PMIs for March showed improvements in 44.4% of the 18 reporters. The median reading for the month was at 50.9, indicating that expanding output was the median reading through the period. The median change showed a small step back of 0.1 diffusion points month-to-month.

Sequentially, looking at average yearly activity compared to a year ago, six months compared to 12 months, and three months compared to six months, we see progress in train. For three months compared to six months, the proportion of reporters showing improvement is 72.2%. For these reporters, over six months compared to 12 months, there is a 61.1% improvement proportion, while for 12 months compared to 12 months ago, there is only a 27.8% improvement.

The median reading over three months on average is 50.7, while the median reading over six months is 50.0 and the median reading over 12 months is 49.4. These readings show a very slow but steady improvement in manufacturing over this horizon.

In addition, we calculate the queue percentile standings for each reporter—that is, the level of the current diffusion index compared to all of the observations back to January 2022, expressing the final number as the percentile standing for the current month in that queue. On that basis, the median percentile standing for this group of reporters is 76.5%. It tells us that the median standing is in the top 25 percentile of all the readings since January 2022 to date. That's a reasonably good result. For the euro area, the queue percentile standing is at the 89.8 percentile, while for Germany it's at its 91.8 percentile. For the Monetary Union and for Germany, the current numbers are some of the best we've seen during this period. However, that doesn't mean that they're necessarily stellar readings.

PMI diffusion vs. PMI rank standings German diffusion in manufacturing is 52.2 in March; for the EMU it is 51.6. Germany posts the fourth-highest PMI rank standing and the fifth highest raw standing in March. The highest standing among all reporters is 52.6 from South Korea. This is a period in which no country was posting very strong manufacturing results. In fact, the United States, with a manufacturing PMI rank standing of 79.6, has a diffusion reading in March just a tick below Germany’s whose queue standing at 91.8 seems miles ahead of the U.S.—but it isn’t. Remember that the queue standings are about relative positioning.

Looking at the details, we see that below-median rank readings were logged by Mexico, Russia, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey. The Asian markets and developing economies seem to have a harder time working up to the standards achieved by other countries.

We also have averages by certain groups of countries. For example, the U.S., the U.K., the Monetary Union, Canada, and Japan—an expanded G10 groping—had an average reading of 51.3 in March, and for that group of countries, the improvements have been steady from 12 months to six months to three months. For the BRIC countries in March, the average standing was 50.4, and for that group there has been a very slight ongoing erosion. For the Asian group, on average, the March reading is 51.2, and there has been a progression to stronger readings from 49.9 over 12 months to 50.5 over six months and to 50.8 over three months.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Apr 01 2026
EMU Unemployment Rate Ticks Up; Still Near All-Time Low
The unemployment rate in the European monetary union picked up to 6.2% in February from 6.1% in January, when it had declined from 6.2% in December. The 6.1% reading is the all-time low, so at 6.2% the unemployment rate remains extremely low in the monetary union.

The number of unemployed in February rose by about 1% in both the EU and the monetary union; however, over broader spans of three months, six months, and 12 months, the number of unemployed is still falling.

February is a low month for the number of reporters on the table showing a decline in the unemployment rate. Among the 12 member reporters listed in the table, only Spain had a lower unemployment rate in February than in January, and Spain continues to show declines in unemployment as it also saw its unemployment rate drop in January and December, as well as on balance over three months, six months, and 12 months. Spain is the only country in the monetary union showing this kind of ongoing progress in reducing unemployment.

For the most part, unemployment rates seem to be stuck at relatively low levels among these 12 monetary union reporters. Four show net declines over 12 months, while six show declines over six months and four show declines over three months. Only three—Austria, Finland, and Luxembourg—report unemployment rates that rank above their respective medians, above a ranking of 50% on data back to 2000.

Although the EMU unemployment rate ticked up in February, it remains exceptionally low. Unemployment in Italy also ticked higher and has the exceptionally low ranking of 0.2%, having just moved up from its all-time low. Country-reported unemployment rates are in the bottom 10 percentile of their range over this period in Spain and Greece. You will remember these as the countries with the structurally highest unemployment rates typically in double digits prior to the formation of the European Union; now the Greek unemployment rate is 8.5% and the Spanish unemployment rate is 9.8%, and they are gradually folding into the community norms.

Despite the uptick in the unemployment rate, it's another excellent unemployment report for the monetary union, with unemployment rates below the medians up and down the line with few exceptions and with both countries brandishing unemployment rates that are substantially below their historic medians. Inflation rate in the monetary union remains broadly controlled, and the progress on the unemployment rate has been spectacular. Despite the other problems that the monetary union has encountered, these are true successes of the formation of the monetary union.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Europe| Mar 31 2026
EMU Inflation Surges; Core Clings to Old Trend
Inflation has begun to flash higher in the euro area as the early inflation indicators in March show an increase of 0.7% month-to-month, even as the core sticks to a low reading of 0.1% in March.

Large economy HICP headlines show pressure The month-to-month increases in the large economies and the monetary union are giving off uncomfortable readings, with Germany posting a 0.9% increase month-to-month, France 0.7%, Italy a more subdued 0.3%, and Spain 0.6%. These numbers help to produce excessive 3-month inflation rates of 4.4% annualized for Germany, 4.5% for France, 3.6% for Italy, and 2.7% for Spain—all of them over the top (that expression, of course, refers to European Central Bank’s inflation objective of 2%).

Year-on-year trends What I listed above are the three-month annualized inflation rates. What the ECB is more interested in is the more-subdued and better-behaved year-over-year rate. On that score, the year-over-year rate is 2.8% for Germany, 2% for France, 1.5% for Italy, and 3.2% for Spain. For the European Monetary Union as a whole, it is 2.5%, while for the EMU core, inflation is 2.2%.

In terms of the year-over-year inflation rates, Germany and Spain are clearly excessive. France is basically on the money for target, while Italian inflation is running cool. GDP-weighted inflation in the monetary union is too high at 2.5%, and on a core basis, it is at what is probably an acceptable 2.2% pace—above target but not demonstrably so.

Core inflation Core inflation or ex-energy inflation, for the three countries that report early show the ex-energy inflation rate for Germany at 2.3% over 12 months; in Italy it is 1.8%, and for Spain it is 2.7%. The core inflation rates are on the high side—not extraordinary, but nevertheless elevated—and the headline inflation rates themselves are accelerating. Looking at the 3-month, 6-month and 12-month inflation rates, we see acceleration in play for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, as well as, for the monetary union as a whole where the 3-month inflation rate has reached 5% annualized (yikes!).

Oil…no! Don’t blame oil yet—that lies ahead We know that oil prices are spurting, but on this timeline ending in March, Brent oil prices measured in euros fell by 2.3%, and year-over-year Brent oil prices are down by 22.6%. So these results are yet to be clobbered by events in the Middle East—events that have lifted oil prices and other energy costs quite dramatically.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
France| Mar 27 2026
France: INSEE MFG Weakens as Inflation Expectations Surge
French manufacturing, as assessed by the INSEE survey, fell sharply to a reading of 98.7 in March from February’s 101.7. The industrial sector reading weakened further, having already fallen to 101.7 in February from 105.4 in January. The January reading was the strongest reading since July 2022, as the rebound from COVID had gathered momentum.

Now, events in the Middle East, a dragged-out war in Ukraine, and a long period of inadequate growth in the wake of COVID, and the imposition of Tariffs by the United States are taking a toll on an economy less able to absorb shocks.

Just as inflation had settled down, there is a new oil shock in progress, a result of the attack in Iran, meant to defang it from its nuclear obsessions and its ambitions to dominate geopolitics in the Middle East by supporting various regional militia groups. The European Central Bank had corralled inflation more than controlled it, but now the ECB is more worried about oil and its impact on inflation and is determined not to make ‘the same mistake again’ referring to its procrastinated timeline for raising rates during COVID. Both the BOE and the ECB have said if the war is still in progress at the time of their next meetings, a rate hike is likely.

So, in several ways, it is a different world. In the United States, it is the same old world as the Fed has been uncommunicative about its strategy in the face of war and rising energy prices. The Fed has offered essentially no guidance. But the ECB and BOE have made clear they are not waiting on the Fed this time around.

The French economy’s main industrial indicator has a 25-percentile standing in March, a lower one-quartile ranking. Production expectations slipped to -9.4 in March from -5.7 in February, corresponding to a 37.5 percentile standing. The recent trend and own industrial likely trend both eased on the month, with the overall trend to 23.4 percentile standing and the personal likely trend to a still-above-median 50.9 percentile standing. Industrial respondents see the overall manufacturing situation as worse than their own personal prospect. Is that denial in action or excessive macroeconomic pessimism? That is something to watch for.

Orders and demand as well as foreign orders and demand fell in March. They had also fallen in February relative to January. The March readings show a 40.9 percentile standing for orders and demand against a slightly higher 47.8 percentile standing for foreign orders and demand.

The price survey news is bad. Both the own likely price trend and the manufacturing price level are higher in March and had already moved higher in February relative to January. The price expectations rank in the 74.9 percentile for own likely price trend and at the 66.3 percentile for the manufacturing price level.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Mar 26 2026
Globally Money Supplies Retain Hot Growth
Current global money and credit trends Money supply growth accelerated in February over three months compared to six months in the United States and the United Kingdom. In the EMU, money growth backed down from a 6.3% growth rate over six months to a still hot 5.6% over three months. Japan, as always, was the exception, with money growth sinking to a weak 1.5% over three months from 2.1% over six months. And the Bank of Japan still has its sights on raising rates further and bringing the level of interest rates eventually to a normalized level. In the EMU, credit growth accelerated as private credit grew at a 5.4% pace over three months, up from 5.1% over six months.

Excessive money growth: Money and credit growth are excessive compared to what would seem to be equilibrium conditions. Those conditions right now have economic growth weak, in the region of 1% to 2%, and monetary targets are 2% all around. All of them are being exceeded—at least in terms of core inflation rates.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Germany| Mar 25 2026
German IFO Sinks Even as the Current Reading Improves
The IFO readings for March 2026 show that the all-sector climate fell to -17.9 from -14.9 in February. The current conditions index improved by the smallest amount possible, rising to -2.4 after reaching -2.5 in February. Expectations, however, were clobbered, with the index in March falling to -19.7 after posting a -10.8 reading in February.

This expectations module for businesses in March registers a month-to-month drop of nearly 9 points; it ranks 246th out of 252 monthly changes, marking it as an occurrence that is this bad or worse, only 2.4% of the time (only 7 worse readings in the last 21 years). It's a stunning one-month backtrack in expectations for Germany.

Early reactions and developments We are currently in late March, so the reading reflects some reaction to the Iran war, and the reaction that we see certainly suggests that there is a relatively severe reaction by the business community to this war. Of course, the initial phase went extremely well from the standpoint of the United States and Israel, not from the standpoint of Iran. As the war has gone on, the U.S. and Israel have continued to register extremely successful military operations with very few of their own losses. However, it has also become clear that Iran intends to fight back on the ground and has tried to spread the conflict regionally using its missile capabilities—which appear to be more far-reaching than previously thought. We are left with the impression that Iran is prepared to engage in guerrilla warfare, which would be very difficult for conventional military operation to completely stamp out. The U.S. has resisted a call for boots on the ground although Donald Trump appears to be sending some paratroopers into the region. The U.S. has threatened to take control of Iran’s crown jewel of oil operations, Kharg Island. This threat has been made to counter Iran’s efforts to try to close the Strait of Hormuz, probably its only trump card. The U.S. has issued additional threats against Iran if it doesn't reopen the strait and allow oil traffic to pass again.

These conditions are, in many ways, a worst-case scenario for Europe and certainly a worst-case scenario for China and Japan that are so incredibly dependent on oil imports. Europe gets its oil imports substantially from the Middle East, meaning that those imports have to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. And then there's the embargoed Russian oil. There has been Iranian oil that has been on the market, having slipped through embargoes using clandestine tankers. U.S. actions in Venezuela have shut down the Venezuelan shipments that were substantially to China. All of these moves create a great impact, an impasse from oil scarcity, which has led to rising oil prices even though the U.S. has uncorked its strategic petroleum reserve and has promised to make more supplies available from that source. Unlike during 1973-75, the U.S. sits in the catbird seat.

The oil weapon has been broken out, and at the same time, turnabout has become fair play as the U.S. now has the upper hand on oil as Iran crimped the supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Strangely, much of Europe had said it would opt out of the U.S. plan to reopen the strait, but after a short period of time, 22 countries have now signed on to help unplug this strait.

Beyond oil (...sort of) The IFO survey shows expectations have dropped exceedingly hard in response to these events, with the expectation standings by industry ranging from a high of 16.1% in manufacturing to a low of 3.1% in retailing and 5.8% for services in general. The net diffusion readings for March range from a negative reading of -39.3 in retailing to a negative reading of -13.8 in manufacturing.

The current conditions rankings range from a high percentile standing in its 70.6 percentile for construction to a low standing in its 16.9 percentile for services.

And this is a report that has not given survey respondents a lot of time to see and react to events.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Mar 24 2026
S&P PMIs Show Weaker March; Iran War Disrupts Recovery Process
A Broad Weakening The Standard and Poor’s global PMI data show broad weakness in March compared to February. The early ‘flash’ report provides sector details for seven countries plus the consolidated European Monetary Union reading. For each reporting unit, there are readings for the composite, the manufacturing sector, and services. In March, there was a weakening on a month-to-month basis for every reporter in all sectors except manufacturing. The four manufacturing exceptions were the United States, France, Germany, and the monetary union as a whole. That means India, Australia, Japan, and the United Kingdom recorded weakening in their composite, manufacturing, and services readings in March. Meanwhile, the monetary union, Germany, France, and the U.S. that posted stronger readings in manufacturing were still dominated by weaker readings in services, causing their composites to weaken month-to-month without exception.

A Sudden Weakening These results compare to February when 13 of 24 reporters recorded stronger sector or composite readings month-to-month. In February, the monetary union and Germany reported stronger readings in all three measures—the composite, manufacturing, and services; Japan did the same. January had a much stronger month overall, with increases in most sectors across most reporting units with a few exceptions. France reported weaker services and a weaker composite, the monetary union reported weaker services and a weaker composite, and Germany reported only a weaker services sector. The remaining five reporters recorded stronger readings in all three sectors. The war in Iran has clearly interrupted what had appeared to be a strengthening, though still uneven, economic recovery.

Sequentially Different Patterns Sequential data (3-month, 6-month, and 12-month averages) do not include March since March data are still preliminary. Sequentially, the trends are mixed, with the monetary union and Germany showing weaker conditions over the three months compared to six months, but stronger conditions over six months compared to 12 months for all three sectors The United States also reports weaker conditions over three months compared to six months, and it reports weakening over six months compared to 12 months for services as well. As for manufacturing, although the U.S. services sector is weaker consistently including for 12 months compared to 12 months ago, the United Kingdom and France show strengthening in all three sectors over three months compared to six months and over six months compared to 12 months. Japan shows strengthening on that same basis, except that there's a weakening of services over three months compared to six months.

There is a mixed picture as far as trend is concerned and some areas have been stronger consistently, and others have progressed faster than others. But March has brought weakness across the board.

The Percentile Averages: The queue standings (or rank standings) show and average percentile standing for the composites (unweighted) at 41.7% over all data since January 2022. Manufacturing currently is relatively strong on this comparison with a 66.9 percentile standing. Services are weak with a 30.4 percentile standing.

The Diffusion Average: Based on data since January 2022, the average composite reading for this set of reporters is 51.9. The manufacturing average is 50.0, and the services average is 52.4. So, all rankings are relative to that set of data. Since 2022, France has had the lowest diffusion reading, with a composite average at 49.2—it has been consistently shrinking.

Manufacturing: Manufacturing has been weakest in German, with an average PMI reading of 46.6. However, France, the United Kingdom, Japan, and the EMU also have average manufacturing sector readings below 50, indicating ongoing manufacturing contraction.

Services and Comparisons: Only France has averaged a service sector contraction since January 2022. Over this period, India has had the strongest diffusion readings across all sectors. The U.S. has logged the second-strongest PMI readings in services, manufacturing, and the composite.

The U.S. as a benchmark and sticky conditions: For the U.S., the average has been 52.2 for the composite, 51.0 for manufacturing, and 52.4 for services. Since these are the second-strongest set of readings, it makes clear that the readings for this period have been quite tepid. Whatever recovery was in progress was probably slow and fairly fragile. Central banks had largely brought inflation down and, in some sense, ‘under control,’ but still, not to target. These sticky realities have been dogging policy-makers. It has been a difficult period. Of course, the Russia-Ukraine war dragged on, Hamas attacked Isreal, Iran’s nuclear facilities were destroyed, the Trump tariffs remained in place, and a second attack on Iran—intended to undermine its surviving nuclear ambitions—was launched with a goal to degrade its huge cache of missiles and drones as well.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Belgium| Mar 23 2026
Belgian Consumer on the Edge?
The Belgian consumer may be on the edge of a sudden deterioration based on responses to the National Bank of Belgium Consumer Survey for March. The consumer confidence reading registered at -6 in March compared to +1 in February. And on data back to 1991, this gives the consumer confidence metric a ranking in its 53rd percentile, slightly above the median for this span. For ranked data, the median occurs at the 50th percentile.

However, the response by consumers to the current situation appraisal gives them an extremely high 94.9 percentile ranking which suggests that the Belgian consumer is quite happy; however, the financial situation for households as appraised over the next 12 months has a reading of -3 in March, with a queue percentile standing at a 23.9 percentile mark in the lower quartile of its ranked responses since 1991. It's clearly a very difficult situation to be extremely happy with the current situation but to be concerned about your financial situation over the next 12 months.

Households rate the next 12 months as relatively inhospitable to make major household purchases as well. The reading at -17 in March is just a tick higher than -18 in February and has a rank standing in its 39.5 percentile. Despite the upbeat ranking of the current situation, households do not rank the current situation as a good time to buy as the favorability to purchase goods at present has a ranking in its 13.8 percentile. Clearly, the Belgian consumer is facing cross-currents and a deteriorating trend.

Among those cross-currents, however, is not a great concern about unemployment. The unemployment reading did rise month-to-month to -3 in March from -11 in February and from -20 in January. Concerns about unemployment have been rising; however, they still have a very low 5.5 percentile standing.

One of the concerns percolating in the background is about inflation. Price trends over the last 12 months had eased to some extent, to 66.2 percentile standing. However, over the next 12 months the reading has picked up to 53 from 31 previously, to a 99.5 percentile standing; concerns about inflation have turned around and now are extremely high.

Consumers rate the economic situation at a -45 in March compared to -25 in February looking ahead to the next 12 months. The queue standing for this reading is in its 0.7 percentile, one of the lowest ratings that we have seen since 1991. The assessment for the previous 12 months has a raw diffusion net score of -42, with the standing in its 23rd percentile. Conditions have deteriorated extremely rapidly in terms of the outlook for the economic situation.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief
Japan| Mar 20 2026
Japan’s Manufacturing IP Accelerates
Manufacturing output in Japan rose by 4.3% in January after rising by 0.7% in December. Total industrial production rose by 2.8% in January after a flat performance in December. By major sector, consumer goods output, intermediate goods output, and investment goods output all increased in January; each had a strong pace in January after two of three sectors experienced output declines in December and November. However, the output recovery in January is strong and solid, putting the trend for industrial output and manufacturing back on solid footing.

Sequential growth rates in Japan show overall manufacturing is growing over 12 months, six months and three months, without any particular increase or decrease in the underlying trend. The 12-month growth rate is 2.5%, the six month pace is at a 3.6% annual rate, and the three month pace has eased back to 2%.

Sequential growth rates for manufacturing are much more upbeat, with manufacturing up by 2.5% over 12 months, running at an 8.3% annualized pace over six months, and accelerating further to 12.3% at an annual rate over three months.

The main manufacturing sectors also are very upbeat, with consumer goods output rising 1.2% over 12 months, accelerating to a 3.8% pace over six months, and accelerating further to a 6.5% annual rate over three months. Intermediate goods output shows a tendency for acceleration that later calms down over three months. The 12-month pace is 3.1%, the six-month pace rises to 5.7%, and over three months the pace is back down to 4%, which is cooling from the six-month pace, but still an increase from the 12-month rate.

For investment goods, the 12-month growth rate is 3%; it rises to a 9.8% annual rate over six months and accelerates further to a 17.3% annual rate over three months. Investment goods profile is reassuring and even eye-popping, showing significant strength at a time that yen weakness is helping to make production in Japan much more profitable.

Japan is experiencing this improved performance after a long period of underperformance going back to the pre-COVID period. Industry output is 88.2% of its January 2020 level; manufacturing output is 89.4% of what it was in January 2020. By sector, consumer goods output is 87.7% of its January 2020 level, intermediate goods output is 86.5%, and investment goods production is 88.7% of what it was in January 2020.

The quarter-to-date, which is a very nascent figure since this reflects only January data, shows total industry output rising at a 12.7% annual rate, with manufacturing growing at a 27.1% annual rate, supported by double-digit increases in the growth rates of consumer goods, intermediate goods, and investment goods output.
by:Robert Brusca
|in:Economy in Brief