- Personal income increased 0.4% m/m but compensation slowed.
- Real PCE increased 0.3% m/m in August on top of a 0.4% m/m increase in July.
- July/August real PCE up 2.8% annualized from Q2 average, providing a solid base for Q3 GDP growth.
- Headline PCE inflation edged up further to the fastest y/y pace since February.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- Italy| Sep 26 2025
Italy’s Confidence Creeps Higher
The chart shows that within the big picture Italian confidence both business and consumer confidence has been relatively steady in recent months for about a year. The consumer reading has had some volatility but no trend. Technically in the current month business confidence is unchanged, and consumer confidence has moved up a couple of tenths of a point on the index of consumer confidence. The index is higher by 0.7% over three months and lower by 1.5% over 12 months. When ranked on data back to late-1997, the current index ranks in a 68.7 percentile of its queue of data, placing it in the top one-third of confidence values over that period. It’s a reasonably firm reading and a high reading by most standards among European countries at this time.
Assessments of the overall situation over the last 12 months improved to net survey reading of -62 in September from -67 in August. That reading has a 63.6 percentile standing.
Assessing the overall situation for the next 12 months ahead, there's another improvement to -20 in September from -24 in August; however, this is a much weaker reading, residing in a 10.7 percentile of its historic queue of data. So, while the overall situation has been relatively firm and the overall confidence reading is firm, the outlook for the next 12 months has some ominous undercurrents to it. Unemployment expectations have increased slightly to a -3 reading from -4. That index in September has a 27.5 percentile standing, a relatively low standing overall but still a little high to be really comfortable from a consumer confidence standpoint. Household budget assessments improved slightly to +24 from +23, which has a very strong standing in its 88th percentile.
The household financial situation, looking ahead, improves slightly; over the last 12 months it deteriorated slightly. The backward-looking measure has a 67.8 percentile standard while the forward-looking measure has a 12.2 percentile standard, once again, raising those concerns about what the future is going to hold.
The current assessment for household savings slipped slightly to a reading of 49 in September from 52 in August; the future reading is steady at -6 in September. The current reading has a 34.9 percentile standing; the future reading has the 97-percentile standing. This higher reading for the future is not necessarily good news as responses to savings are typically correlated negatively with responses about intentions to spend and are often associated with concerns about the future. However, the direct question about the environment for making major purchases showed a slight improvement to -29 in September from -30 in August and produced a standing in a 66.9 percentile, a top one third reading. For now, the consumer in Italy is still undaunted and holds relatively firm view of the environment for spending. The business environment assessment was unchanged month-to-month but overall has a much weaker standing.
The businesses assessment is only in the 24.5 percentile of its historic queue of data marking the responses as a bottom 25 percentile response which is not reassuring.
Global| Sep 25 2025
Charts of the Week: Resilient Activity, Noisy Policy
Global financial markets have remained steady over the past few days: equity volatility remains low, credit spreads remain contained and core yields have drifted rather than lurched, even as policy noise—especially around US trade—remains high. Against that backdrop, this week’s flash PMIs describe a resilient but uneven expansion: Germany has inched back into growth, while France has slipped further into contraction, a divergence echoed in bonds where the OAT–Bund spread has widened amid political and fiscal uncertainty (charts 1 and 2). Latest trade data from South Korea reinforce the idea of a tech-led floor under global activity, with semiconductor exports still advancing even as broader shipments remain choppy (chart 3). Labour demand indicators tell a similar story of moderation without fracture: high frequency data for job-postings have flattened in the US and UK and have turned up in Germany (chart 4). Stepping back, the latest US flow-of-funds report show a financing mix still anchored by heavy public borrowing absorbed by foreign investors but offset by a sizeable private-sector surplus—one reason perhaps for why the world economy has remained resilient despite persistent policy uncertainty (charts 5 and 6).
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
- USA| Sep 25 2025
U.S. Existing Home Sales Slip in August After July’s Rebound
- August sales -0.2% (+1.8% y/y) to 4.0 mil., the second m/m decline in three months.
- Sales patterns show mixed results: down in the Northeast and South, but up in the Midwest and West.
- Median sales price -0.7% (+2.0% y/y) to a 4-month-low $422,600.
- Unsold inventory -1.3% (+11.7% y/y) to 1.53 mil. units; 4.6 months' supply.
- USA| Sep 25 2025
U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in August After July’s Surge
- Deficit: $85.5 bil. in August, down $17.3 bil. (-16.8%) from July’s $102.8 bil.
- Exports -1.3%, the third m/m fall in four months, led by a 6.8% drop in consumer goods exports.
- Imports -7.0%, down for the fourth month in five, led by an 18.9% plunge in imports of industrial supplies & materials.
- USA| Sep 25 2025
U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Rose in August
- Durable goods orders unexpectedly rose 2.9% m/m after declines in both June and July.
- Aircraft orders rose 27% m/m, their first increase in three months.
- Orders excluding transportation rose 0.4% m/m in August on top of a solid 1.0% monthly gain in July.
- Core capital goods orders increased 0.6% following a 0.8% rise in July; shipments fell 0.3% m/m, their first decline in four months.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- USA| Sep 25 2025
Resilient Consumer Propels Upward Revision to Q2 2025 GDP Growth
- Real GDP advanced at a 3.8% saar in Q3 in the third estimate, up from 3.3% in the second estimate and 3.0% in the advance report.
- Stronger consumer spending and business fixed investment were the major factors behind the upward revision.
- Meaningful upward revisions to measures of aggregate demand.
- Small upward revision to GDP and PCE inflation.
- Annual benchmark revision benign; annual real GDP growth from 2019 to 2024 was unrevised at 2.4%.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
- Initial claims declined 14,000 in latest week.
- Continuing claims edged down slightly.
- Insured unemployment rate holds steady.
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